USD/JPY Discussion

Don't know anything about the fundamentals. All I know is I seen a major supply area @ 121.852 which can easily be observed on the daily chart. I've had a sell order sitting there for days waiting to get hit. It offered a nice tight stop of about 45 pips with a 3:1 target @ 120.442.

it hit 122 last night so your order didnt go through-.- ...

OK have fun

Market manipulation by BOJ with a little bit of profit taking. Every other pair is dropping against the USD, but JPY is strengthening. It will soon be too much for them to handle, just like the CHF situation. A little bit further down then a rocket upwards. Entry 120.88 TP 123

Could you explain a bit more what you mean by manipulation by BOJ? Afaik they want yen weaker, unless I'm missing something.

I can't seem to find the article, where BOJ wanted to keep rate under 122. It's just my honest opinion that if we reverse below 120.5, there is definitely something going on behind the scenes. All other currencies are dropping like a rock to the surging USD but the JPY is showing strong resistance with a lack of positive data, or any news at all really.

I don't think there is any manipulation going on, I can't imagine some secret operation by the BOJ buying yen and selling dollars, that would go against everything they stands for lol, whenever there is currency war its usually trying to keep price low. If they wanted raise yen, they could just raise interest rates.

I don't think the BOJ wants keep yen low, I think that market is just being stupid. This happens sometimes, especially for major funding currencies like yen. Instead of normal currency dynamics, it works according to an international flight to safety, like a treasury bond (because a currency is effectively equivalent to a short term treasury bonds). That's because there isn't enough liquidity in national reserve currencies to provide for both domestic demand (normal uses for currency) and international "speculative" liquidity for flight to safety trades.

My theory:
- Yen has basically 0% interest rate.
- Japan is famous for the "watanabe" carry trade
- Now this carry goes into equities too, as central bank actions force people to climb up the risk spectrum in a search for returns.
- End result is very big yen leverage being used to go long the AUD, NZD, Nekkei, and US markets (US markets are very popular in Japan).
- Meanwhile, in US, very big yen leverage being used to go long the Nekkei (look at popularity of DXJ for example).

Now there is risk off day. This causes big drop in AUD, NZD, Nekkei, and US markets. This means people closing long positions in these asset classes. Many of those longs were probably on leverage. Maybe JPY was that leverage, destroying tons of yen when these longs closed.

End result: On market crashes in AUD, NZD, Nekkei, and US markets, there is a huge short term spike in yen.

Today, not such a huge spike, because partially offset by strength in USD. But still a bit of a spike, on no real news. To see real size of spike, look at EURJPY or NZDJPY. But I think this spike is short term, if equities markets no longer having problems. Also, sooner or later, people will realize that currency of a country with huge debt problems and monetizing all of it isn't good safety trade. That's when yen will finally explode.

Despite the greenback’s gains, USD/JPY had been rejected from a new 7-year high of 122.01.

That was a great post! I definitely agree we are going north to 124 in the short term barring some strange catastrophe. I'm in long at 120.88 TP 123.

I went long at the tragic price of 121.88 (I thought there was going to be a major breakout). Ah well I guess I can wait.

One way to avoid that is to wait for the pullback after a break. Downside is sometimes you miss the breakout if it doesn't pull back.

I went long, will wait for 121.66 verified resistance

Short UJ tp 120.6 120.4 120 119.8 119.6
sl 122.1

are you in a selling motion for that bid idkurv?

Also i got a noob question here, can you only have one type of bid open at a time ( either a buy/sell Motion) , i tried having 2 lots going either way and it closed out my current lots resulting in significant loses -.-

@RGomez
I already short, that number is my target profit.

Short USDSEK tp 8.463
sl 8.59100

Short USDPLN tp 3.803
sl 3.90750

could be wrong.
be careful.

RGomez, If you are US trader then you are subject to FIFO,,first in first out rule. which means basically you have to close the first position you opened and you cannot buy and sell the same currency pair at the same time I.E buy it or sell it Usually MT4 wont let you make the error.

negation of the structure after the break 120 60

Here is good opportunity to take winning trade by going long on this pair. RSI is positive and rising. Pair founded stable support between 121-121.30. In couple days pair will reach resistance 122 zone and break it..