"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
- #967,322
- Mar 10, 2015 2:42pm Mar 10, 2015 2:42pm
{quote} The move in S&P was easy to spot last Friday after NFP when we broke correlation with the dollar (we mentioned in the thread a few times). But you maybe going a bit too far with your analysis of the strong dollar. Its just a simple and natural rates play and nothing that we "haven't seen before". They are testing waters with the FED before next meeting: If FED confirms the intention of hikes June/July, the bastards are already clean and riding the pig and leaving the lagging "retail" and suckers buy and hold investors hanging on the highs...
very simple and to the point explanation. Thank you!
- #967,323
- Mar 10, 2015 2:45pm Mar 10, 2015 2:45pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
{quote} show me, please...
rest of this week belongs to Kiwi Aussie (yuan) and cad, so its them im watching, aussie struggling to make new lows 7603 cad testing highs 2696 kiwis actually a little below support 7297 shes a worry,
I need anothe 2 1/4 hrs to complete analysis but as of now usd should take a hit and au ku should rally cad should start rejecting or show signs of, 135mins waiting
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
- #967,324
- Mar 10, 2015 2:46pm Mar 10, 2015 2:46pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
- #967,326
- Mar 10, 2015 2:51pm Mar 10, 2015 2:51pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
{quote} haha although I don t like you chanel, could extend it and it is retesting the bo south, anyway, for me euro is stagnant so far this year has been very dominant usd more than weakness in euro shown e chf in spastic fit mode aka ping pong rest of this week belongs to Kiwi Aussie (yuan) and cad, so its them im watching, aussie struggling to make new lows 7603 cad testing highs 2696 kiwis actually a little below support 7297 shes a worry, I need anothe 2 1/4 hrs to complete analysis but as of now usd should take a hit and au ku should...
. Ok, Aussie could hold as well and go for 0,771 retest, I admit.. Is simmilar to GU, but GU in my charts stronger hold. But whatcha saying to UJ breaking 8 year highs? Think no matter chart, it just kicks in USD stops and pulls the rest.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #967,328
- Mar 10, 2015 2:52pm Mar 10, 2015 2:52pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
{quote} Kiwi counter lord
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- #967,330
- Mar 10, 2015 2:56pm Mar 10, 2015 2:56pm
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Trader | 21,478 Posts
{image}
Intraday only.
- #967,331
- Mar 10, 2015 2:58pm Mar 10, 2015 2:58pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #967,332
- Mar 10, 2015 2:58pm Mar 10, 2015 2:58pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
{quote} Yes, thats exactly it. Am facked. I hate you!
only watch geppy and "all" movement lately has been yen influence gbp still in deciding mode just had quick look UJ daily the pop thru 170 72 has happened before and bears spanked her back down then, yesterdays candle was doji. so will wait see if 170 72 can pull her back down and spank her again
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- #967,333
- Mar 10, 2015 2:58pm Mar 10, 2015 2:58pm
- Joined May 2009 | Status: User of Geppy patience pills | 7,645 Posts
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
- #967,336
- Mar 10, 2015 3:03pm Mar 10, 2015 3:03pm
I would like to briefly talk on EURUSD fundamentals and the fed.
I think that there is good chance that FED will decide that no rise of intest rates will happen in 2015 after all. This is because exporters in the US are being shafted by a high dollar. If the FED raised rates the dollar would go hyperbolic. I think that many people could get fucked by this, so the fed won't raise rates, but keep delaying. But this doesn't mean that I am not short the euro.
Right now, rates are 0%. And dollar is still going up against euro. This is because the bund-treasury spread is still gigantic. People can get much better yield by holding dollars than by holding german debt. The only reason to hold euro bonds right now is to try to frontron the ECB. Everybody else will sell bonds to the ECB, get newly printed euros, and straight away sell those euros for dollars, to straight away hand dollars to government and get bonds giving good interest rate
So I think that even if you expect fed not to raise rates, the only time you should not be short the euro is just before FED meetings, and maybe just after to see how market reacts. The FED might surprise and not raise some day and cause USD crash and big EUR gains. But on normal days, no way is that going to happen, euro has artificially low interest rate, USD has more fair rate by comparison, EUR is dead until that changes.
I think that there is good chance that FED will decide that no rise of intest rates will happen in 2015 after all. This is because exporters in the US are being shafted by a high dollar. If the FED raised rates the dollar would go hyperbolic. I think that many people could get fucked by this, so the fed won't raise rates, but keep delaying. But this doesn't mean that I am not short the euro.
Right now, rates are 0%. And dollar is still going up against euro. This is because the bund-treasury spread is still gigantic. People can get much better yield by holding dollars than by holding german debt. The only reason to hold euro bonds right now is to try to frontron the ECB. Everybody else will sell bonds to the ECB, get newly printed euros, and straight away sell those euros for dollars, to straight away hand dollars to government and get bonds giving good interest rate
So I think that even if you expect fed not to raise rates, the only time you should not be short the euro is just before FED meetings, and maybe just after to see how market reacts. The FED might surprise and not raise some day and cause USD crash and big EUR gains. But on normal days, no way is that going to happen, euro has artificially low interest rate, USD has more fair rate by comparison, EUR is dead until that changes.
- #967,337
- Mar 10, 2015 3:04pm Mar 10, 2015 3:04pm
- Joined Oct 2008 | Status: sideline is a position | 105,124 Posts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
- #967,338
- Mar 10, 2015 3:13pm Mar 10, 2015 3:13pm
- Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Trader | 12,448 Posts
UJ Daily
very ominous bull pattern, "BUT" it is in progress so patience required, yes it has pierced previous highs another double top wouldnt surprise me, would be enough to catch out either late bulls jumping in or sometimes referred to as early bulls I will wait for better signs, for bear, need her below 120 72, then the imature rising TL then she will be wedged with 50sma (note flat ma,s are very dangerous) sooo if bears can get traction I will target 116 22 then the red circle gap to the left above the orange box is fresh air
weekly or monthly right now could be double top, remember we are talking BOJ, tread carefully
very ominous bull pattern, "BUT" it is in progress so patience required, yes it has pierced previous highs another double top wouldnt surprise me, would be enough to catch out either late bulls jumping in or sometimes referred to as early bulls
I will wait for better signs, for bear, need her below 120 72, then the imature rising TL then she will be wedged with 50sma (note flat ma,s are very dangerous) sooo if bears can get traction I will target 116 22 then the red circle gap to the left above the orange box is fresh airweekly or monthly right now could be double top, remember we are talking BOJ, tread carefully
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
- #967,339
- Edited 3:45pm Mar 10, 2015 3:15pm | Edited 3:45pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts
Yy, real thanks for ruining my Aussie trade Kiwi. And you said its me influencing my account. Lies.
Btw, am buying a bit GU, how bout you?..Just intraday scalp.
Edit: cant wait for Tokyo open. This is sick :/. Am gonna go get beer. GU beer hedge. Cya laterz and GL, T.
Last edit: Before leaving, EU set BE, UJ cut BE, am also lil long GU and Geppy. These are beer entries, pretty safe.
Disclaimer: I may move Aussie SL +-10 pips, whatever. Am too thirsty.
Btw, am buying a bit GU, how bout you?
..Just intraday scalp.Edit: cant wait for Tokyo open. This is sick :/. Am gonna go get beer. GU beer hedge. Cya laterz and GL, T.
Last edit: Before leaving, EU set BE, UJ cut BE, am also lil long GU and Geppy. These are beer entries, pretty safe.
Disclaimer: I may move Aussie SL +-10 pips, whatever. Am too thirsty.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
- #967,340
- Mar 10, 2015 3:16pm Mar 10, 2015 3:16pm
- Joined Mar 2010 | Status: Technical Fundamentalist | 11,563 Posts
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now