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  • #967,261
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:29pm Mar 10, 2015 1:29pm
Why should the euro trade below sub parity levels ??
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Well I have learnt that this pair does not follow price action much. Its more of a fundamental following currency. Here are the divergent fundamentals.
The fed's are raising interest rates which they have named as the"lift off". They are likely to raise interest rates to as high as 3.75bps while the Euro has just announced QE which will have known effects not until mid 2016. So there you go. The maximum pull back that this pair has had is not more than 300 pips. Given the extreme conditions ... hopefully we may see a pull back from the 1.05 levels because of the waiting orders at that level which currently accounts for about 1.25% of all the orders. Until then there are no major orders. The next major level is 1.00 at which sits about 2% of the total orders. So most likely we are going to see 1.00 and it will be sooner than expected.
Everything you want lies on the other side of fear.
  • #967,262
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:33pm Mar 10, 2015 1:33pm
Most likely targets EUR USD - 1.00 ; GBP USD - 1.43 ; AUD USD - 073 ; USD CAD - 1.30 ; USD JPY - 1.30
Everything you want lies on the other side of fear.
  • #967,263
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:42pm Mar 10, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting Neeraj_Raj
Why should the euro trade below sub parity levels ?? . . . Well I have learnt that this pair does not follow price action much. Its more of a fundamental following currency. Here are the divergent fundamentals. The fed's are raising interest rates which they have named as the"lift off". They are likely to raise interest rates to as high as 3.75bps while the Euro has just announced QE which will have known effects not until mid 2016. So there you go. The maximum pull back that this pair has had is not more than 300 pips. Given the extreme conditions...
I suspect a leak of the rate hike before June. Most likely this week. This will cause the rocket flight.
  • #967,264
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:46pm Mar 10, 2015 1:46pm
Seems mighty USD is invalidating UJ target again through other pairs. Cant stop it. Hail to the USD king.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
4 USD: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DelhLppPSxY
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,265
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:54pm Mar 10, 2015 1:54pm
5 minutes left on the 1 hour candle... interesting so see if it closes below 1.7
learn by failure,succeed by learning
Aim Small Return Today: -5.6%
  • #967,266
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:55pm Mar 10, 2015 1:55pm
Am stacking on Aussie.. Such a nice hole below . Also stacking UJ. I also sell few EUs on the very low , just a scalpie till low of range.

Q: Did you really just sold 12 year low Tom?
A: Yes I did.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,267
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:55pm Mar 10, 2015 1:55pm
feel the little boys being stopped every purchase because it's so hard to go on the right side of the trade?
  • #967,268
  • Mar 10, 2015 1:59pm Mar 10, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Am stacking on Aussie.. Such a nice hole below .
I missed my entry there mate. 7682 to the pip was obvious...

A bit of a frustrating day watching dollar fly after I covered my euro trades too early but you seem to be doing really nicely on a whole lot of plays. Nice going and GL with hitting that space on Aussie.
  • #967,269
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:01pm Mar 10, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Am stacking on Aussie.. Such a nice hole below . Also stacking UJ. I also sell few EUs on the very low , just a scalpie till low of range. Q: Did you really just sold 12 year low Tom? A: Yes I did.
Who gives a crap about 12 year old demand probably already drained to heck eh?
  • #967,270
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:04pm Mar 10, 2015 2:04pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} I missed my entry there mate. 7682 to the pip was obvious... A bit of a frustrating day watching dollar fly after I covered my euro trades too early but you seem to be doing really nicely on a whole lot of plays. Nice going and GL with hitting that space on Aussie.
Didnt have 7682, but heck that would be entry. Was short yesterday and covered all @ 7625. Now just reloaded on same place. Anyway no worries mate, screw targets and just hail . Dunno, how the heck can I aim targets in decade break?
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Is such a brutal alloverplace break of decade levels I dont know where to look first. UJ 8 year high, EU 12 year low, UCAD, AU, GU - only 2 year low pfff . But seems USD king is gonna rock the place. Hmm, lovely bucks.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Seems mighty USD is invalidating UJ target again through other pairs. Cant stop it. Hail to the USD king. {quote}
....

Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Who gives a crap about 12 year old demand probably already drained to heck eh?
Well it wont be hit to the pip, but is there
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,271
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:07pm Mar 10, 2015 2:07pm
How on earth is this pushing at this rate @this time of the day, I already cleaned my shorts @1.0725 .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #967,272
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:07pm Mar 10, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Didnt have 7682, but heck that would be entry. Was short yesterday and covered all @ 7625. Now just reloaded on same place. Anyway no worries mate, screw targets and just hail . Dunno, how the heck can I aim targets in decade break? {quote} {quote} .... {quote} Well it wont be hit to the pip, but is there
Haha. That's a gutsy play but everything calls for it. Dollar is just insane and if not now/soon then when.
  • #967,273
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:11pm Mar 10, 2015 2:11pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Haha. That's a gutsy play but everything calls for it. Dollar is just insane and if not now/soon then when.
Looks like my charts are broken, long exposure looks strange.
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,274
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:19pm Mar 10, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Looks like my charts are broken, long exposure looks strange. {image}
Excellent, diversified trades there... Seriously though risk off boosting Yen but I guess you're going to be holding those for a while in expectation of some crazy words from BOJ?
  • #967,275
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:22pm Mar 10, 2015 2:22pm
What a night! EUR/USD crashed through the important 1.07xx level and continues to move down towards parity.

Check out the SP500; it also crashed below the 50DMA with conviction after yesterday's stall. There's still half an hour left to go in NY's session, but a close below 2060 will leave 2020 and the 150DMA wide open. And 2000/200DMA (interesting coincidence) next. Still some ways to go before we get a clear indication of whether this is a minor correction or something more significant.

How does this relate to EUR/USD? The reason I bring this up is because it ties back to risk themes. There's a lot of money tied up on wall street and for the most part, their investments have been supported by the Fed. What I ask myself: is what happens when US equities no longer seem like the best investment vehicle? In a risk-on scenario, US equities will be viewed as more risky, sparking capital rotation. Where that money goes has significant implications for the currency markets, especially USD and YEN crosses.

So what's the play here? Follow the money. Trying to catch a top or a bottom is futile and an inefficient use of time.
  • #967,276
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:22pm Mar 10, 2015 2:22pm
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote} ...we all trading for a personal need, and some guys may love to lose ! -/
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #967,277
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:23pm Mar 10, 2015 2:23pm
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} Excellent, diversified trades there... Seriously though risk off boosting Yen but I guess you're going to be holding those for a while in expectation of some crazy words from BOJ?
BOJ words are short term, actions have long term effects. Till they stop easing, their words mean nothing. I just follow cycle here and plan to have a shower :

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
1. Given the speed and structure of a cycle, I believe we are about to break wave 4 top of previous one. mid term - Structure of wave 1 consists of little abc - abcde consolidations followed by break. ...think subwave 5 top is fake and we are about to go boom. Fundamental: As Japans closed all those factories after Fukushima, are heavily import dependent on energy.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Slumping commodity prices are huge boost for them. Think it is going to give Kuroda and Abe san enough political power to reach their targets. They have "expanded" their policy on last meeting. ... Moreover, flow into USD is gonna continue till EU problems persist - long, or US numbers prove to be fake - mid term. UJ long is a win/win till end of quarter. Result: It is gonna break and I am going to have shower in cash . I also include my TPs - 123,78 125,17 126,48. It is just a bit below wave 1 shoot targets - 123,8 125,2 126,55...
Also wanna add they are heavy Oil importers since they closed those nuclear factories after Fukushima. Like 50 of them. Oil beeing megaboost, and is going to stocks and bonds = Yen sell. Check Nikkei.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #967,278
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:27pm Mar 10, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Enough kid.sisse
lol...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #967,279
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:29pm Mar 10, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} BOJ words are short term, actions have long term effects. Till they stop easing, their words mean nothing. I just follow cycle here and plan to have a shower : {quote} {quote} Also wanna add they are heavy Oil importers since they closed those nuclear factories after Fukushima. Like 50 of them. Oil beeing megaboost, and is going to stocks and bonds = Yen sell. Check Nikkei.
OK, excellent man. I know you've had conviction on that pairs direction for a long time now so good luck with those Yen shorts too.

Boring, blank book here but at I do still hold some E/J swing shorts.
  • #967,280
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:30pm Mar 10, 2015 2:30pm
From a tech perspective, I think once that red TL goes,

it's gone
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