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  • #967,081
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:21am Mar 10, 2015 4:21am
I'm just wondering about a catalyst to cause the dollar to retrace now. I don't have any long term $ trades on the books; only holding some on that E/J swing trade that I mentioned here. $ looks flawlessly strong, supported from all angles and a beauty queen compared to just about every other plain jane currency. I thought cable was relatively strong too but we saw how that went...

It looks like only the FED with really dovish comments to push rate hikes to end of year can give us a correction for a proper long term play.
  • #967,082
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:22am Mar 10, 2015 4:22am
it amazes me how a lot of people thought i was full of shit and that i was nuts for even suggesting that EURUSD was headed to parity when everyone's focus was that 200SMA on Monthly Chart to act as support....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,083
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:23am Mar 10, 2015 4:23am
still holding my 3 short position from 1.16xx )
  • #967,084
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:25am Mar 10, 2015 4:25am
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote} ...soo many guys have long positions like this ! -/ {image}
Yeah tried a couple longs

If it does not bounce before 1.07

I will have to ditch them.

Not the end off the world as we know it

just wish I had really loaded up on the shorts

But been caught more than once loading up

an it turns.
  • #967,085
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:26am Mar 10, 2015 4:26am
Quoting ClinicalEx
I'm just wondering about a catalyst to cause the dollar to retrace now. I don't have any long term $ trades on the books; only holding some on that E/J swing trade that I mentioned here. $ looks flawlessly strong, supported from all angles and a beauty queen compared to just about every other plain jane currency. I thought cable was relatively strong too but we saw how that went... It looks like only the FED with really dovish comments to push rate hikes to end of year can give us a correction for a proper long term play.
i would say that for the USD to finally be sold off hard is that the FED suggests that Fed hike will not happen ever... even a delay to end of 2015 still put US a 1-2 year window to continue appreciating in value against the EURO..... because EURO just started QE.... US "just started QE in 2008.... took US 7 years.... Euro is not gona be any better than the US in recovery....
dont be surprised if EURUSD trades below parity. thats the only way EURO could have a chance to make their rubbish manufactured goods attractive enough to sell abroad.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,086
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:26am Mar 10, 2015 4:26am
Quoting sgkrishn
{quote} you always rock buddy
  • #967,087
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:27am Mar 10, 2015 4:27am
Got in a small long at 1.0745, TP 1.08 as mentioned, SL 1.0734.
Pending short 1.08, TP 1.074 SL 1.0815. Lets see how it plays.
  • #967,088
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:33am Mar 10, 2015 4:33am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i would say that for the USD to finally be sold off hard is that the FED suggests that Fed hike will not happen ever... even a delay to end of 2015 still put US a 1-2 year window to continue appreciating in value against the EURO..... because EURO just started QE.... US "just started QE in 2008.... took US 7 years.... Euro is not gona be any better than the US in recovery.... dont be surprised if EURUSD trades below parity. thats the only way EURO could have a chance to make their rubbish manufactured goods attractive enough to sell abroad....
Yeah, we can't even hope for a hard sell-off. Just something like a new monthly lower high swing would do (3300 pips later and I still don't have one in my charts on this pair; it just spiked down.)

I guess right now we're looking for a meager little pullback to 1.1097 to carry on riding the dollar for some kind of swing play.
  • #967,089
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:35am Mar 10, 2015 4:35am
Yesterday the EURUSD initially rallied but found enough selling pressure at 1.0906 to turn around and close near the open of the day. If we were at a bottom this could be a signal that the price was ready to reverse by the inverted hammer pattern but this is not the case and a break below Monday’s low would signal a continuation of the bearish trend.
Want to learn more: HTO Trading
  • #967,090
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:41am Mar 10, 2015 4:41am
Quoting fxtyrant
it amazes me how a lot of people thought i was full of shit and that i was nuts for even suggesting that EURUSD was headed to parity when everyone's focus was that 200SMA on Monthly Chart to act as support....
The people with most right are those least listened to Good luck
  • #967,091
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:50am Mar 10, 2015 4:50am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} The people with most right are those least listened to Good luck
thats reality.....

and if there are 95% of traders who are losers, then i expect 95% of the time whatever accurate analysis or trades i give out, it'll be ignored 95% of the time.
which is quite reasonable. but i hope the 5% who follows are enjoying the benefits of following. dont try to lead. you aint goldman sachs. you dont have deep pockets to lead.

just be a happy sheep and be happy following the profit trail.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #967,092
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:51am Mar 10, 2015 4:51am
Quoting DubaiFX
{quote} Please Check the Starting balance and Ending balance of both Pics. Thank You.. {image}
Don't know if anyone told you, but good job on doubling your account in a year.
  • #967,093
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:55am Mar 10, 2015 4:55am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H1.gif Size: 153 KB
  • #967,094
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:56am Mar 10, 2015 4:56am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i would say that for the USD to finally be sold off hard is that the FED suggests that Fed hike will not happen ever... even a delay to end of 2015 still put US a 1-2 year window to continue appreciating in value against the EURO..... because EURO just started QE.... US "just started QE in 2008.... took US 7 years.... Euro is not gona be any better than the US in recovery.... dont be surprised if EURUSD trades below parity. thats the only way EURO could have a chance to make their rubbish manufactured goods attractive enough to sell abroad....
Agree with you totally, just "rubbish manufactured goods" do not include German products. I think Germany will be again, the biggest beneficiary of the QE, though they themselves fight against it so much...alas, Germans...what is right, what is wrong...
  • #967,095
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:57am Mar 10, 2015 4:57am
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote} ok i understand, but are you trying to break the reccord !? -/ {image}
There was a famous German once, now mostly forgotten by the public. But now many imitate him without knowing him and without knowing that he was doing something else haha

http://polpix.sueddeutsche.com/bild/.../hans-hass.jpg
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #967,096
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:58am Mar 10, 2015 4:58am
Quoting sisse
{quote}[/list]{quote} {quote}[/list]{quote} ...and Europe completing the main target very early in the session. Taking 1.077x and [dollar] euro looks pretty much done until the next FED meeting. Important daily roll in the making but for the rest of the session, the entire 1.070x handle is empty but at the bottom of the handle we will be entering in first Fundamental Support (rates differential macro support) since 1.140x handle. In simple words, meat of the move is gone only bones left. sisse

  • #967,097
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:59am Mar 10, 2015 4:59am
For all you fans of yearly/week levels and mids, year are my yearly and weekly charts.

Gold lines indicate lots of PA through a mid in the past, purple lines lots of PA through in mid in the same place, black lines PA cluster around Yearly open/closes/highs/lows. Black line through candle is the High/low mid, gold line through candle is the close/close mid
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly1.jpg Size: 832 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly3.jpg Size: 594 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: yearly.jpg Size: 688 KB
  • #967,098
  • Mar 10, 2015 5:08am Mar 10, 2015 5:08am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} Europe has been so slow to get here having tried many plasters and multiple countries involved in making any decision means scepticism remains. Need to see effects flowing into fundamentals...
Varoufakis (spelled correctly) already spilled the "kiss our asses", it will take additional time, until the bollocks understood the implications.
  • #967,099
  • Mar 10, 2015 5:14am Mar 10, 2015 5:14am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} thats reality..... and if there are 95% of traders who are losers, then i expect 95% of the time whatever accurate analysis or trades i give out, it'll be ignored 95% of the time. which is quite reasonable. but i hope the 5% who follows are enjoying the benefits of following. dont try to lead. you aint goldman sachs. you dont have deep pockets to lead. just be a happy sheep and be happy following the profit trail.

Exactly right.
If you fall, I shall be there. - The floor
  • #967,100
  • Mar 10, 2015 5:18am Mar 10, 2015 5:18am
i got my forecast levels today,
forecast given on 2'nd March, i usually post on FB. but i think this is the right place.
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