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  • #21,021
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:43am Mar 6, 2015 9:43am
Quoting kalyan
{quote} sorry,I dint sound clear..... I m asking do you see any chance to 1060? Do u see any importance here even later this week
Mo problems. Hmm 1.0850 has been touched. If 1.0850 breaks maybe. But lets see how it will close today. TBH, id like to see a nice pullback to the upside first.
  • #21,022
  • Mar 6, 2015 3:17pm Mar 6, 2015 3:17pm
Quoting T@rantula
EURUSD is in a strong momentum and even though it should reach 1.0850 i dont recommend catching a falling knife. EOD ( End of Day ) trading could give us another shot to short it higher but we need a loss of momentum and a retracement towards 1.0930 or 1.0950 region. 1.0930 shows a good confluence of channel bordrer + 23.6 fib and it is still 65 pip pullback so if the pair pullbacks this should be the first entry zone. Higher pullback should be limited to 1.0950 ( L4, 38.2, breaakout-retest) towards 1.0850 {image}
If the goals are get it, do you keep the POCS as the same? I mean, it hasn't done the Pullback, and the target achieved. Do you keep the same structure?
  • #21,023
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:07am Mar 7, 2015 12:07am
Quoting guguxpto
very nice webbinar in chanel that wase one of my favorits since a like trent lines and chanels puting more weppans to my arsenal . im using stocastic works better for me then macd at the moment. gbp jpy whaiting for retest tha previus range then down ma 100 200 just cross as well they arent in the chart becouse i like them clean . 5% to 10% montly on my acount gowing no pressure just trade and recive what market give tu us max 2% risk . once more thanks for thee help {image}
check this one T very good 50pibs range chanel stop loss hit 3 times positive then in chanel down 60 pibs more .
Scalping
  • #21,024
  • Mar 9, 2015 6:46am Mar 9, 2015 6:46am
NZDUSD looks pretty interesting for trade to me. On the chart we can see that Ex demand zone has been turned it supply and we can easily spot a breakout point there. POC comes at 0.7405-15 zone ( H3, DPP , 50.0 fib ,breakout-retest point) and if we see a pullback to the zone, might be good for short trades. Considering previous ATR and confluence targets, NZDUSD is targeting 7305 and 7275.

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  • #21,025
  • Mar 9, 2015 7:52am Mar 9, 2015 7:52am
Quoting T@rantula
NZDUSD looks pretty interesting for trade to me. On the chart we can see that Ex demand zone has been turned it supply and we can easily spot a breakout point there. POC comes at 0.7405-15 zone ( H3, DPP , 50.0 fib ,breakout-retest point) and if we see a pullback to the zone, might be good for short trades. Considering previous ATR and confluence targets, NZDUSD is targeting 7305 and 7275. {image}
T@rantula , aside from the POC.... How do you spot a "breakout point" ? (how do you pin point it)... For instance , do i only have to check the 15min time frame for the pull back , or go as low as the 1min timeframe ? (or is this useless ? )

For ex , inside the blue square on the 1h time frame....
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Which one matters the most on the 15min ?....
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or
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Or at the 1min ? (since it's the first green candle pull back after the breakout)
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Or am i complicating things too much ? (where would i place my stop loss based on the multiple time frame ? ) , should i just pay attention to the 15min + ATR ?
Ps: speaking of which , i've noticed that you have a 5 period ATR .... Do you only use it on the 1h time frame or all of them ?
  • #21,026
  • Mar 9, 2015 8:06am Mar 9, 2015 8:06am
Quoting onoff
{quote} T@rantula , aside from the POC.... How do you spot a "breakout point" ? (how do you pin point it)... For instance , do i only have to check the 15min time frame for the pull back , or go as low as the 1min timeframe ? (or is this useless ? ) For ex , inside the blue square on the 1h time frame.... {image} Which one matters the most on the 15min ?.... {image} or {image} Or at the 1min ? (since it's the first green candle pull back after the breakout) {image} Or am i complicating things too much ? (where would i place my stop loss based on...
The analysis is always subjective but forget all that and watch H1 chart. You need to know how to draw a channel ( red ). Look at the momentum candle which has broken through a previous double bottom. It also coincides with a previous h4 resistance now support. It is clearly a breakout. Then you can see that H3 and DPP have been retested ( pin at blue rectangle ) . That means sellers in history and possibly fresh sellers too.


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  • #21,027
  • Mar 9, 2015 8:12am Mar 9, 2015 8:12am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} The analysis is always subjective but forget all that and watch H1 chart. You need to know how to draw a channel ( red ). Look at the momentum candle which has broken through a previous double bottom. It also coincides with a previous h4 resistance now support. It is clearly a breakout. Then you can see that H3 and DPP have been retested ( pin at blue rectangle ) . That means sellers in history and possibly fresh sellers too. {image}
Ok , thanks
  • #21,028
  • Mar 9, 2015 8:42am Mar 9, 2015 8:42am
Audcad formed a pin bar in Weekly. It is trying to reach the reversal point at 9770 which could be a nice shorting area. But because it is in a triangle the target could be limited for some more upthrust. As a per intraday we still can target for 9700 imo. I wont be interested above 9800.
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  • #21,029
  • Mar 9, 2015 10:58am Mar 9, 2015 10:58am
Quoting kalyan
Audcad formed a pin bar in Weekly. It is trying to reach the reversal point at 9770 which could be a nice shorting area. But because it is in a triangle the target could be limited for some more upthrust. As a per intraday we still can target for 9700 imo. I wont be interested above 9800. {image}
Nice chart and outlook. 9700 should be reached idd
  • #21,030
  • Mar 9, 2015 11:20am Mar 9, 2015 11:20am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} Nice chart and outlook. 9700 should be reached idd
Thanx chief
  • #21,031
  • Mar 9, 2015 11:50pm Mar 9, 2015 11:50pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Australian bond market still pricing at least one more rate cut (25bps), and given the RBA want the 7500 target for AUD/USD pair, there is a fair chance we get the rut cut tomorrow. 2yr Govt Bonds have priced a 45 bps cut (1.8% yield): http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rat...nds/australia/
Just reading the local newspaper today, and the RBA are likely to sit on the fence until Yellen & the US Fed Reserve Bank introduce the first of the rate hikes in the US around mid June 2015.

In the article, it indicated that RBA would like the AUD/USD ranging between 7000-7500, and if it slips into high 6000s then they will also allow this. However, if it slips below 6500 (which is unlikely, and probably requires commodities prices to tank, china to go into recession and US Fed Reserve to hike rates all at once), then the RBA may step in to strengthen it.
  • #21,032
  • Mar 10, 2015 2:44am Mar 10, 2015 2:44am
I thought this was a good article on US Equities, but interestingly on slide 6 it shows what the FOMC participants think the US Fed rate should be in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and then the "longer run":

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ecommended_tab

This may help you with understanding the divergence in Central Bank rates in relation to USD pairs.
  • #21,033
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:08am Mar 10, 2015 3:08am
e/u
1.0803 if pa keep selling above it as it shown in 1h and 4h next will B 1.04130
1.0825 sell point for this plan we could sell near to it if retrace happen putting SL above it
that's my view and thought to share
let's watch
  • #21,034
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:56am Mar 10, 2015 3:56am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Just reading the local newspaper today, and the RBA are likely to sit on the fence until Yellen & the US Fed Reserve Bank introduce the first of the rate hikes in the US around mid June 2015. In the article, it indicated that RBA would like the AUD/USD ranging between 7000-7500, and if it slips into high 6000s then they will also allow this. However, if it slips below 6500 (which is unlikely, and probably requires commodities prices to tank, china to go into recession and US Fed Reserve to hike rates all at once), then the RBA may step in...
Yes we can see that 7500 isn't so far. Now trading-wise, last night and early morning there were no substantial pullbacks. I only took GBPUSD trade. EURUSD , NZDUSD gave no good pullback. Looks like a direct fall.
  • #21,035
  • Mar 10, 2015 3:57am Mar 10, 2015 3:57am
Quoting egkid
e/u 1.0803 if pa keep selling above it as it shown in 1h and 4h next will B 1.04130 1.0825 sell point for this plan we could sell near to it if retrace happen putting SL above it that's my view and thought to share let's watch
Quoting PariCovek
I thought this was a good article on US Equities, but interestingly on slide 6 it shows what the FOMC participants think the US Fed rate should be in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 and then the "longer run": http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ecommended_tab This may help you with understanding the divergence in Central Bank rates in relation to USD pairs.
Thanks for insights guys!
  • #21,036
  • Mar 10, 2015 4:13am Mar 10, 2015 4:13am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} {quote} Thanks for insights guys!
Hi T, I'm curious what value do you think the AUD/USD pair would be assuming the Fed normalise their central bank rate to 3.75% (as per the MarketWatch article say by 2017), whilst the RBA kept its current rate of 2.25% on hold. Let's assume commodities prices stay the same, and unemployment is roughly the same in both countries. Do you think it would it go below 6500?

Its a hard one to call, but I'm trying to understand various realistic scenario's for a bottom on this pair.

I think we will likely see rate rises by the RBA if the AUD/USD rate went below 6500.
  • #21,037
  • Mar 10, 2015 5:39am Mar 10, 2015 5:39am
"NZDUSD target has been hit w/o substantial pullback"
T@rantula ,does that mean that you skipped this trade ? (in other words , are you always conservative & wait for the pullback ? or are there exceptions ? )
  • #21,038
  • Mar 10, 2015 6:20am Mar 10, 2015 6:20am
Quoting onoff
"NZDUSD target has been hit w/o substantial pullback" T@rantula ,does that mean that you skipped this trade ? (in other words , are you always conservative & wait for the pullback ? or are there exceptions ? )
Yes. i was waiting for pullback and it didnt happen. 70-80 % of the time i am conservative and I wait for the pullback. Thats because the price tends to range most of the time w/o strong trend momentum as we have a the moment. Unless i do breakout trades or scalps.

But concerning intraday setups and general trend trading. Yes- i am conservative even if it means that I will miss the trade once in a while
  • #21,039
  • Mar 10, 2015 6:23am Mar 10, 2015 6:23am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Hi T, I'm curious what value do you think the AUD/USD pair would be assuming the Fed normalise their central bank rate to 3.75% (as per the MarketWatch article say by 2017), whilst the RBA kept its current rate of 2.25% on hold. Let's assume commodities prices stay the same, and unemployment is roughly the same in both countries. Do you think it would it go below 6500? Its a hard one to call, but I'm trying to understand various realistic scenario's for a bottom on this pair. I think we will likely see rate rises by the RBA if the AUD/USD...
I need to do the math and observe weekly charts in this case. First impression is that the price can go to 6500 and below, but then definitely there will be a form of intervention from RBA part. Try to observe historical price action around 6500 to see how it might react.
  • #21,040
  • Mar 11, 2015 5:04am Mar 11, 2015 5:04am
GBPUSD has entered a new bearish momentum and we can see that M 1 2 3 reversal pattern is forming on H1 time frame. Until break of 1.5025 confirms the M GBPUSD may be trapped between 1.5035 and 1.5095. Fresh sellers can be expected at 1.5080-1.5100 zone while the jump above 5110 could accelerate the pair towards 5150.

Pound has been resilient against recent USD strength compared to other pairs but today manufacturing and industrial production data can weight on the pair. In the case of 1.5025 break 1.4995 and 1.4950 are targets.

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