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  • #966,761
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:36am Mar 7, 2015 10:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0GZ34R20130905 5.4 Trillion turnover in 2013 in Forex roughly 33% in EUR that means round about 1.8 Trillion daily in Forex 60 billion ECB printing per month, translates to 3 billion per trading day Out of this perspective a drop in the pond: 0.17% my latest EW and sentiment analysis: 03.07.2015 EURUSD long term count and short term count

main count: 03.07.2015 EURUSD long term count and short term count


alternative count 1: 03.07.2015 EURUSD long term alternative count

alternative count 2: 03.07.2015 EURUSD alternative long term count 2



both alternative counts do fib much better, so I will go with them, I think
  • #966,762
  • Mar 7, 2015 10:49am Mar 7, 2015 10:49am
Personally, I think EUR/USD will reach parity some time soon, but the next short-term target is likely 1.0720.
  • #966,763
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:05am Mar 7, 2015 11:05am
Yes, something may happen before getting to parity. (EU monthly chart).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUm.png Size: 66 KB
  • #966,764
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:37am Mar 7, 2015 11:37am
Quoting infinitus
{image} It is widely believed among economists and currency analysts that currency values follow the relative interest rates. We are told, Money goes where it is treated best, and so the currency which offers the best interest rate will attract the most capital. But that does not really explain what has been happening over the past year. The US Federal Reserve has kept short term interest rates near zero, and just about every other central bank around the world has done the same. But the US... Read...
us interest rates are .25% eurozone is 0.05% so there is a difference 500% more interest compared to the Eurozone
  • #966,765
  • Mar 7, 2015 11:56am Mar 7, 2015 11:56am
Quoting mkvy
{quote} us interest rates are .25% eurozone is 0.05% so there is a difference 500% more interest compared to the Eurozone

an that translates into which price in EURUSD?
  • #966,766
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:03pm Mar 7, 2015 12:03pm
Quoting stefcio2002
Yes, something may happen before getting to parity. (EU monthly chart). {image}
Hi
it's a free fall as i see , so don't try to imagine a support without a clear reason
@Aymankkhlifat
  • #966,767
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:30pm Mar 7, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} an that translates into which price in EURUSD?
it translates into traders exchanging their euros to usd, the price being at this moment 1.0842 on my MT4
  • #966,768
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:32pm Mar 7, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} it translates into traders exchanging their euros to usd

what you say!!!
  • #966,769
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:39pm Mar 7, 2015 12:39pm
Have a great weekend everyone
  • #966,770
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:47pm Mar 7, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} what you say!!!
go to the monthly chart

march 2008 US QE 1, look what happened to the eurousd rate

november 2010 QE2 , see how the price falls

QE3 - did not weaken the euro this one... need to look further into why the euro strengthened... maybe this was when the eurozone increased interest rates for a bit

December 2013 us fed tapering announcement now the usd strengthens but the main fall started in about April 2014 when the tapering really began
  • #966,771
  • Edited 1:54pm Mar 7, 2015 1:27pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting fxtrader08
...Can someone give me their view on USDCAD and AUDNZD? The analysis on AUDNZD that I read online says it could be a trend reversal. I've been going short to what I thought originally wasnt very risky but now I'm in heavy DD. 16%!!!!. Unsure of whether to cut my losses on Sunday open or wait for a downward move. Its OB on RSI so I am thinking there should be a move down and it was a very sharp move up following NFP. I did ask the same in the AUDNZD thread but there arent as many active readers in that thread...
I've been studying this pair, which is quite interesting because they're geographically and economically in close proximity to each other, particularly their trade relationships, especially with China, and carry interest. Given these similarities, from a macro perspective, the RBA's stance on monetary policy has been more dovish -- that stance hasn't changed. Meanwhile, RBNZ's housing market is booming -- it's nuts -- while relative inflation outside of that is flat. Sound familiar?

There are some key events this coming week that may provide more insight into near-term direction. That said, I'm considering going long in favor of a correction, which I think has already started. Sunday might be a good time to get out for losing short positions... I think the bigger takeaway here is to avoid getting into a situation where one could incur more than a 16% DD if it doesn't fall in line with one's risk appetite.
  • #966,772
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:37pm Mar 7, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} go to the monthly chart march 2008 US QE 1, look what happened to the eurousd rate november 2010 QE2 , see how the price falls QE3 - did not weaken the euro this one... need to look further into why the euro strengthened... maybe this was when the eurozone increased interest rates for a bit December 2013 us fed tapering announcement now the usd strengthens but the main fall started in about April 2014 when the tapering really began

and?
  • #966,773
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:43pm Mar 7, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} and?
bye
  • #966,774
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:54pm Mar 7, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} bye

did the troll notice, that I am expecting further down, too?


just curious
  • #966,775
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:05pm Mar 7, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} did the troll notice, that I am expecting further down, too? just curious
i am no troll, im just making observations of how market dynamics work
  • #966,776
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:09pm Mar 7, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} did the troll notice, that I am expecting further down, too? just curious
are you a short timeframe trader holding a trade for no longer than 12 hours... or a long term trader holding your trades for months or years?
  • #966,777
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:25pm Mar 7, 2015 2:25pm
The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realize that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins.
Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks – what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading
  • #966,778
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:35pm Mar 7, 2015 2:35pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} are you a short timeframe trader holding a trade for no longer than 12 hours... or a long term trader holding your trades for months or years?

I do both

My core investments are major swings

The daytrading is for extra cash - mostly countertrading in supply/demand levels for quick pips
  • #966,779
  • Mar 8, 2015 5:59am Mar 8, 2015 5:59am
Quoting mkvy
{quote} i am no troll, im just making observations of how market dynamics work
yeah, but you keep posting as if you are some kind of guru with all the answers, but really what do you know? you have just finished 4 years of disaster trading, and if you think a couple of months of being ahead in a one way market now proves you can continually trade profitably and have all the answers, then you yet have more to learn...

Quoting mkvy
{quote} your doing good anyway... ive just done the best trade of my career pipwise after radically changing my trading style after 4 years of disaster.. i dont wish anyone to go through that
  • #966,780
  • Mar 8, 2015 7:52am Mar 8, 2015 7:52am
Looking for a post NFP retrace as usual.. 1.10 anyone?
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