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EURUSD

  • #966,741
  • Mar 6, 2015 7:57pm Mar 6, 2015 7:57pm
Quoting srt
{quote} No market analysis from me but I think you need to do the analysis on AU & NU to trade AN. Just my rookie opinion. {image} {image}
I completely agree with you.

As soon as NFP came out, NU and AU (and others) went south but AN went north. Not sure why.
  • #966,742
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:05pm Mar 6, 2015 8:05pm
Quoting fxtrader08
{quote} I completely agree with you. As soon as NFP came out, NU and AU (and others) went south but AN went north. Not sure why.
AN is just the difference between AU & NU. AU dropped about 100 pips from high to low but NU dropped 150 pips from high to low so the 50 pips larger drop in NU made AN rise. Not a perfect explanation but general idea why it went up.
Currently AU is approx. 60 pips from support with NU 30 pips from support so if both pause @ support, then AN may drop a bit.
  • #966,743
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:20pm Mar 6, 2015 8:20pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Will he get a cookie?
I was going to say...I think Ken does.
  • #966,744
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:22pm Mar 6, 2015 8:22pm
Quoting fxtrader08
{quote} I completely agree with you. As soon as NFP came out, NU and AU (and others) went south but AN went north. Not sure why.
Check this trade sheet
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Pairs.pdf   175 KB | 520 downloads
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #966,745
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:34pm Mar 6, 2015 8:34pm
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjan15/...er-US1-15.html
Just a weekend read. I would never post this article during the week, but if anyone cares to add their thoughts on this article that'd be neat. Makes me think usdjpy 140+ and eurusd below .9 in the not so distant future to be kind of realistic..? Thoughts welcome over this weekend! Cheers!
Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.
  • #966,746
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:40pm Mar 6, 2015 8:40pm
Quoting fxtrader08
{quote} I completely agree with you. As soon as NFP came out, NU and AU (and others) went south but AN went north. Not sure why.
The aud has been stronger than nzd last couple of days for what ever reason, possibly the aud interest statement was this week , out the way so to speak, nzd is next week , at any rate they have both spanked the eur this week as with most pairs. The aussie has pounded both the gbp and eur pretty good this week .
  • #966,747
  • Mar 6, 2015 8:59pm Mar 6, 2015 8:59pm
Quoting fxtrader08
{quote} I completely agree with you. As soon as NFP came out, NU and AU (and others) went south but AN went north. Not sure why.
AUD/NZD = AUD/USD + or - NZD/USD ....... so if AUD/USD goes up 1% and NZD/USD goes up 0.5% , AUD/NZD will be up 0.5%, it's really simple, this is how crosses work across the board.
  • #966,748
  • Mar 6, 2015 9:16pm Mar 6, 2015 9:16pm
little bit busy
so long time didnt come here
I think is ok to long euro. but the qe start, will go down more and more till 0.88(this year target)
But is it possible have little bit rebound???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #966,749
  • Mar 7, 2015 12:08am Mar 7, 2015 12:08am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Will he get a cookie?
All of a sudden I start to feel uncomfortable to hold it. May I ask your TP?Thanks
  • #966,750
  • Mar 7, 2015 1:50am Mar 7, 2015 1:50am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Nice, well done! How do you do it? I can't stand seeing open profits (sadly). Aiming for parity or lower?
I will wait for break blow 1.05 to see parity , an i will wait for break blow parity if it happen , dont have to do nothing else Drink a cup of coffe and whatch the euro die
  • #966,751
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:28am Mar 7, 2015 2:28am
http://www.mcoscillator.com/images/s...15-300x164.gif

It is widely believed among economists and currency analysts that currency values follow the relative interest rates. We are told, Money goes where it is treated best, and so the currency which offers the best interest rate will attract the most capital.
But that does not really explain what has been happening over the past year. The US Federal Reserve has kept short term interest rates near zero, and just about every other central bank around the world has done the same. But the US... Read More



snipset:

This week’s chart helps to explain that relationship better. The plot of the effective Fed Funds rate is shifted forward by 3 years to reveal that the Dollar Index tends to follow in the same footsteps 3 years later. So yes, interest rates matter, but not for 3 years.


Either the Fed is stomping on the useful message from the bond market by engaging in price-fixing of the cost of money, or else the Dollar Index has no business being way up here.
My inclination is toward the latter hypothesis. The US economy is supposedly great, and worthy of a high currency valuation. But real employment numbers (not the massaged government ones) are not that great. And the falling oil prices will hurt the portion of US GDP related to oil production, whereas western Europe stands mostly to benefit from lower crude oil prices with no downside since the countries of western Europe hardly produce any oil. So this excursion off track by the US Dollar Index is likely going to have to get given back.
At the point when the Fed finally does start to raise rates, then we can start the 3-year clock for a real rise in the dollar.
  • #966,752
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:39am Mar 7, 2015 2:39am
Quoting infinitus
{image} It is widely believed among economists and currency analysts that currency values follow the relative interest rates. We are told, Money goes where it is treated best, and so the currency which offers the best interest rate will attract the most capital. But that does not really explain what has been happening over the past year. The US Federal Reserve has kept short term interest rates near zero, and just about every other central bank around the world has done the same. But the US... Read...
Have you any target for the EUR/USD?

The ECB printing will start on monday. Do you know how much the volume will affect the daily volume on the euro?
  • #966,753
  • Mar 7, 2015 2:40am Mar 7, 2015 2:40am
The EURUSD's real target:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR.jpg Size: 207 KB
  • #966,754
  • Mar 7, 2015 4:05am Mar 7, 2015 4:05am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} BOC, RBA and RBNZ kept the rate unchanged that's one thing to keep in mind. As for CAD recently is tightly correlated to Crude Oil and data is slightly getting better so do your own analysis. {quote} AUDNZD is the exchange rate differential of AUDUSD vs NZDUSD both export oriented countries and Aussie is in transition. There's yields gap and too early to call a trend reversal unless AUD is performing better than NZD to close the gap which is unlikely in near term. {image} NZDUSD is having correction to the downside due to Wheeler last statement...
My eyes on AUD/NZD for long term investment. This month candle will tell.
  • #966,755
  • Mar 7, 2015 4:52am Mar 7, 2015 4:52am
Quoting Hkr-wck
{quote} UJ time to new high this week
Next week UJ go to 12+
Enter Signature
  • #966,756
  • Mar 7, 2015 5:26am Mar 7, 2015 5:26am
All aboard the Euro Parity Train
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 40 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #966,757
  • Mar 7, 2015 7:52am Mar 7, 2015 7:52am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Have you any target for the EUR/USD? The ECB printing will start on monday. Do you know how much the volume will affect the daily volume on the euro?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0GZ34R20130905

5.4 Trillion turnover in 2013 in Forex

roughly 33% in EUR

that means round about 1.8 Trillion daily in Forex

60 billion ECB printing per month, translates to 3 billion per trading day


Out of this perspective a drop in the pond: 0.17%


my latest EW and sentiment analysis:

03.07.2015 EURUSD long term count and short term count
  • #966,758
  • Mar 7, 2015 8:19am Mar 7, 2015 8:19am
I have pointed on my sentiments the 1.07
yes , I wrote here the down trend is not end yet , let's see where does it will go then , I stay short on all pairs , mean I will hold only USD , and sell eur , gbp , chf , jpy , aud , cad , try . easy trade yep
let see 1.07 if break blow , then i will say ~ 1.0000 is possible , and i believe break blow 1.07 would be start an agresive down trend , see you guys dwon stairs this month
  • #966,759
  • Mar 7, 2015 9:02am Mar 7, 2015 9:02am
Is any one expect a small bounce from here or just falling down
  • #966,760
  • Mar 7, 2015 9:31am Mar 7, 2015 9:31am
Quoting Michael.MK
Is any one expect a small bounce from here or just falling down
Just Falling till 1.07240 then will see
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
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