'Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication'
AUDUSD M15 SHORT - Well established move down , dragon and trend with good angle and in separation. Price retraced to dragon on decreased volume , went in , than I waited for a first candle to leave the dragon and close out of it. This was a moment to place a short for me , as you can see in the screenshot. We will see how it will move.
Comments very welcome
Msis125125 I would elaborate on the topic but as a member I am active only lately so it is hard to judge for me. I want you to know that in general I agree with You but no further comments from me.
Comments very welcome
Msis125125 I would elaborate on the topic but as a member I am active only lately so it is hard to judge for me. I want you to know that in general I agree with You but no further comments from me.
Man lie, woman lie, numbers don't
- #79,585
- Mar 5, 2015 3:58pm Mar 5, 2015 3:58pm
AUDUSD M15 SHORT - Well established move down , dragon and trend with good angle and in separation. Price retraced to dragon on decreased volume , went in , than I waited for a first candle to leave the dragon and close out of it. This was a moment to place a short for me , as you can see in the screenshot. We will see how it will move. {image} Comments very welcome
Comment - I wouldnt do this trade given its the quiet time of the day for FX and its near support. My guess is MMs want to collect shorts for the data release tonight.
- #79,586
- Edited 4:49pm Mar 5, 2015 4:15pm | Edited 4:49pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,521 Posts
- #79,588
- Mar 5, 2015 4:52pm Mar 5, 2015 4:52pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
USDCAD Alert Within the hour comes a CAD high impact release. So far the MMs have retraced the price, which is now hovering above the 50% retrace level. If they were bulls, my guess is they would not have retraced the price at all! The Robber Banks MMs could be planning a breakout drop today. That move up might have been the MMs manipulating the price back up to fill new orders of big players to short above the half number. Time will tell.-tah {image}
The Alert still sounds!
Yesterday, prrior to the CAD high impact relase (about 7.5 hours ago) the MMs were pushing up the price. There was the distinct possibility they were doing that to get price above the half number to fill big player short orders ahead of the release. Price did not reverse at/after the CAD release. Instead, the MMs continued the push until they got the price above the upper whole number, an even better and more likely place for big players to place orders to short this!
And now the price is somewhat off that whole number, possibly due to the selling involved.
So, this looks bearish, and why bearish? Well, look at the volume for yesterday. Where was the most notable activity? At the lows of the day to possibly indicate bulls? No! One series of notable volumes was in the drive down during the first part of the London session, consistent with strong selling. The next, and most notable volume for the entire day, was after the London MMs had already started the price retrace, when the US MMs came in and added their strength to push price up thru the half number.
I am not saying the MMs weren't "bulls" for the drive back up yesterday. They knew they were going to do this so they would have loaded some longs for themselves before the push up was too advanced already, hence the notable volume after the push up began, but while price was still below the half number. However, the most convincing volume is yesterday in the AS and early LS, where the AS MMs bumped up the price and then started loading up, followed by the Frankfurt and London MMs doing what appears to be strong and consistent selling.
So, what happens next? If the MMs are bears, and if because big players have shorting orders place above the whole number now, then before the USD and CAD high impact releases today there will likely be some more attempts by the MMs to fill those short orders by supporting the price for some time to suck in longs. But, they could run out of liquidity for shorting up there before the releases, too. Anything can happen, but this continues to look very bearish, especially with over a month now of ranging,.....with the lows being fairly consistent while the highs steadily weaken, which you can see clearly on your H4 chart.
-tah
- #79,590
- Edited 5:50pm Mar 5, 2015 5:35pm | Edited 5:50pm
- Joined Jul 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,521 Posts
- #79,591
- Edited 7:31pm Mar 5, 2015 6:57pm | Edited 7:31pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #79,600
- Mar 6, 2015 7:41am Mar 6, 2015 7:41am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
