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  • #966,021
  • Mar 5, 2015 5:33am Mar 5, 2015 5:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} uff mate its kind of hard to read those charts without a context. I can only give you a very basic but key suggestion. Trying to catch a big fish with a small boat is never a good idea in trading... In simple words, it will be a lot easier to "read" levels when you put them in a more time proportional relation (e.g something like 1 : 4 to max 1 : 6). Try displaying monthly levels in weekly charts, Weekly in dailies, dailies with h4, etc ... otherwise you may get chop out to dead and/or dead by 1000s small wounds... sisse
Thanks for reply, I am trying to rearrange them according to your suggested timeframes.
  • #966,022
  • Mar 5, 2015 5:43am Mar 5, 2015 5:43am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} nice one. how many beers? holding my dax etf position to 11.470... stocks best performing asset class, dax best performing index. buy the dip!
sold. +200 again. dax with new ath. waiting for lord draghila now
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #966,023
  • Mar 5, 2015 5:57am Mar 5, 2015 5:57am
Quoting Miguel.N
they are trying as much as they can ! -/ {image}
Nope wrong, you need to rotate picture around.
  • #966,024
  • Mar 5, 2015 5:58am Mar 5, 2015 5:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i dont want to give out bad info. i also dont want everything i do duplicated. i give out enough for some with a half ass system too add things to help it. several legs are here,, .0989, 1006/07, 1023... the common denominator is 1397/1400 to 1533... not strong enough to stop any central banks, but every now and again. the market has things already priced in. nothing here looks bullish atm. so i shut up with small longs and take my loss or not.

better late than never
  • #966,025
  • Mar 5, 2015 5:59am Mar 5, 2015 5:59am
We are entering in no man land with the BOE. Oil and european equities giving some early hints on whats about to come for the ECB conference. A complex trading environment in the euro for the double play (ECB/NFP) as we may break direct correlation with equities if we get a good macro push from the ECB forecast and a relatively inline and/or worse NFP.

The full play will only set after NFP and weekly roll so there lots of new info to digest. If we get the double whammy (bad euro ECB forecasts and good NFP) we can have an extension leg down in the swing to as low as the 1.07xx handle in just a few sessions. However, markets are aligning pre news for a more neutral play (good euro ECB forecast and inline NFP) for a wide range play.

Key sessions for both dollar and especially for the euro as it can, for the first time in over a year, take the driver seat in the short term (days/weeks).

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #966,026
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:16am Mar 5, 2015 6:16am
Quoting sophiaphia
Lng 1.1075 TP 1.117 SL 1.1049 Daily S3
SL here and too tight. SL 1.08 TP 1.119
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #966,027
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:24am Mar 5, 2015 6:24am
With due respect to ECB, EURUSD could break the trend-line resistance and rally towards 1.1100.
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  • #966,028
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:25am Mar 5, 2015 6:25am
Quoting sisse
We are entering in no man land with the BOE. Oil and european equities giving some early hints on whats about to come for the ECB conference. A complex trading environment in the euro for the double play (ECB/NFP) as we may break direct correlation with equities if we get a good macro push from the ECB forecast and a relatively inline and/or worse NFP. The full play will only set after NFP and weekly roll so there lots of new info to digest. If we get the double whammy (bad euro ECB forecasts and good NFP) we can have an extension leg down in the...
the only way to find a strategy that works is do not look at the news, and not look at other traders ideas
  • #966,029
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:34am Mar 5, 2015 6:34am
Probably wrong here but looks like EUR/CAD GBP/CAD are good buys ST... WTI over extended
  • #966,030
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:39am Mar 5, 2015 6:39am
Hi folks,

im new to this forum. What do you think about this proposal? Someone there who also have the fundamental line in mind? Or is all bs? Maybe im thinking in a timespan which is settelted in too late. The most movement has already happend before a bounce. It may flick a bit around the fundamental line. Would it go up after?

So long
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  • #966,031
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:43am Mar 5, 2015 6:43am
Ascending triangle on M5, could be a very ST reversal to touch resistance levels before coming down again.
  • #966,032
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:55am Mar 5, 2015 6:55am
started collecting long term aud shorts. tech wise a chance for 817x is possible. but with china lowering growth to 7% from 7.4.. it should be ok.. and more aud easing likely
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #966,033
  • Mar 5, 2015 6:58am Mar 5, 2015 6:58am
Here we go again for a new ECB conference. Expecting a mild impact conference that will fully complete with NFP and the weekly roll. However, given the level we are trading it will be a decisive factor in defining if we get a extension leg down or if we get a breather before the FED hikes.

On the fundamental side.

Very complex to summarise and define this time but basically 2 factors in play. 1) Economic outlooks, especially [de]inflation expectations and 2) the technicalities and details of QE:

  1. A positive economic outlook for next quarters is widely expected but if we get a hint that deflation concerns has[are fading] fade away we will get a extended rally in equities and a rally in euro via inflation.
  2. A mild or sluggish economic outlook with hints on deflation concerns and we will get a direct hit in the Euro opening a extending move down via both QE and inflation and macro numbers.
  3. For the technicalities, they are extremely difficult to read in the short term (except something really massive like a extension in time or size) and they will need to be digested by experts and analyst first before getting into play. In simple words, if we get any specific details about QE that are too "technical" it will not get into play short term until they are fully digested. Only a massive extension in time or size will send the euro to the floor in no time as expectations wont be already digested in charts.

On the technical side
​
Simply two options in play but the actual play will extend until the weekly roll:

  1. An extension leg to 1.07xx or
  2. A wide chop range formation to 1.140x (from 1.10xx).

For the actual flow and news play:

Wide range make things a lot harder intraday but 3 options in play

  1. In general inline with expectation economic outlook and no inflation concerns play, a zigzag set in play. Fading 1.106x to kill weak hands and option to 1.098x before pushing up and settling for the daily roll around 1.108x for the NFP leg.
  2. A super positive outlook with a very conservative details on the time scope of QE will set a direct but limited move 1,101x to 1.114x to settle the roll around 1.112x for NFP.
  3. A bad outlook with deflation concerns and with strong extended QE talk is the volatility play. It will set us in a direct (no loading time) play to the low of the 1.090x handle. If we lose the very mild and empty 1.093x will flow on inertia and in one go to the 1.07xx handle without waiting for NFP.

Good luck all trading the next few sessions.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #966,034
  • Mar 5, 2015 7:01am Mar 5, 2015 7:01am
Quoting mkvy
{quote} the only way to find a strategy that works is do not look at the news, and not look at other traders ideas
if u continue to change and follow a different strategy each day. u will never learn the tendencies of the pair in relation to your strategy. and will continue to fail. by doing the same failed thing over and over.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #966,035
  • Mar 5, 2015 7:02am Mar 5, 2015 7:02am
Quoting gatorinla
started collecting long term aud shorts. tech wise a chance for 817x is possible. but with china lowering growth to 7% from 7.4.. it should be ok.. and more aud easing likely
right on time she drops some. she has a pulse
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #966,036
  • Mar 5, 2015 7:09am Mar 5, 2015 7:09am
As long as there aren't wild words from the ECB I expect the day to be capped between 1.098 and 1.1152. It's setup so that it will take a really dovish surprise to shake this pair further down from there. I think mild words guarantee a retrace and breathing room for the bulls and strong hawkish words a volatile move off 1.098. Anything in the mean/par and fading either extremes looks like the best bet.
  • #966,037
  • Mar 5, 2015 7:24am Mar 5, 2015 7:24am
Quoting sisse
Here we go again for a new ECB conference. Expecting a mild impact conference that will fully complete with NFP and the weekly roll. However, given the level we are trading it will be a decisive factor in defining if we get a extension leg down or if we get a breather before the FED hikes. On the fundamental side. Very complex to summarise and define this time but basically 2 factors in play. 1) Economic outlooks, especially [de]inflation expectations and 2) the technicalities and details of QE: A positive economic outlook for next quarters is widely...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #966,038
  • Mar 5, 2015 7:26am Mar 5, 2015 7:26am
I expect 1.0980 soon
Forex is a losers game.
  • #966,039
  • Mar 5, 2015 7:27am Mar 5, 2015 7:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if u continue to change and follow a different strategy each day. u will never learn the tendencies of the pair in relation to your strategy. and will continue to fail. by doing the same failed thing over and over.
small lower b/o, broke a 2 day range. weeks low looks in jeopardy now. and china fundis back it. places a LL in reach at 7588 min with long term trend.
any tech eu bounce is amplified in ea
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #966,040
  • Mar 5, 2015 7:28am Mar 5, 2015 7:28am
Live from the site...
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