Attachments: USD/JPY Discussion

USD/JPY Discussion

#56,301
Mar 4, 2015 4:17pm Mar 4, 2015 4:17pm

Tom_D_Trader
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts

Quoting bikov

Disliked

{quote} i'm not so familiar with the issues there and don't know the details, the only reliable thing for me is the chart and it says exhaustion of the uptrend. yes, japan is in trouble but who isn't ? it is still highly developed country and one of the main exporters in the world. and maybe most important - yen is still the ultimate safe heaven. that means something..

Ignored

Bikov, I have to strongly disagree on Ultimate safe haven. Thought that was USD... Why the heck are we trading @ 120s on UJ and parity on EU?

Kuroda and Abe san doubled monetary base and still pushing @ 90Tr Yen monthly into market. Definitely not safe long

. Only thing holding us below 120s now is Kuroda and Abe san clearly overshoot with QE programme and Yen weakened too fast. As a response, they threatened to stop with expansion should UJ break 120s. But expansion is still in place, watch Nikkei for reference.

Gotta get a beer, catch ya later, T

"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates

#56,302
Mar 4, 2015 4:43pm Mar 4, 2015 4:43pm

buytosell
| Additional Username | Joined Aug 2013 | 283 Posts

for those who have position around 119.74 it is exhausting awaiting what is direction of USDJPY.

There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.

#56,303
Mar 4, 2015 4:45pm Mar 4, 2015 4:45pm

Hickson
Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Less is more ... | 9,059 Posts

I am still long, targetting 121.70-80 at least. break of 118.60 would invalidate this for me.

Fix up, trade sharp ...

#56,304
Mar 4, 2015 4:46pm Mar 4, 2015 4:46pm

bikov
| Joined May 2012 | Status: Trader | 620 Posts

Quoting Tom_D_Trader

Disliked

{quote} Bikov, I have to strongly disagree on Ultimate safe haven. Thought that was USD... Why the heck are we trading @ 120s on UJ and parity on EU? Kuroda and Abe san doubled monetary base and still pushing @ 90Tr Yen monthly into market. Definitely not safe long . Only thing holding us below 120s now is Kuroda and Abe san clearly overshoot with QE programme and Yen weakened too fast. As a response, they threatened to stop with expansion should UJ break 120s. But expansion is still in place, watch Nikkei for reference. Gotta get a beer, catch...

Ignored

just leave for a moment all those numbers and watch uj & indices correlation. in a case of a sell off at dija, nasdaq, sp500, dax,ftse.. who will benefit more, usd or yen? japanese are one of the largest exporters of the capital in the world. when they smell trouble, they sell everything and bring back home fresh amounts of yen. troubles support yen. remember fukushima? in any other country such disaster would bring depreciation of the currency, but here was opposite. about carry trade, any unwinding will support yen. at the end, US have huge amount of debt and it weighs on a dollar so US also have its own troubles. to resume, bad news in the world = good news for yen...and gold.

and enjoy in beer, this market makes bulls and bears both thirsty waiting for some action

"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck

#56,305
Mar 4, 2015 5:24pm Mar 4, 2015 5:24pm

buytosell
| Additional Username | Joined Aug 2013 | 283 Posts

Quoting buytosell

Disliked

NEW DWELLING POINT IS 119.70...This will be for another day till friday.

Ignored

....then comes 119.70 ...and now is 119.66...it is going down

There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.

#56,306
Mar 4, 2015 5:33pm Mar 4, 2015 5:33pm

Tom_D_Trader
Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Winter is coming. Ask Kondratieff. | 8,196 Posts

Quoting bikov

Disliked

in a case of a sell off at dija, nasdaq, sp500, dax,ftse.. who will benefit more, usd or yen? japanese are one of the largest exporters of the capital in the world. when they smell trouble, they sell everything and bring back home fresh amounts of yen. troubles support yen. remember fukushima? in any other country such disaster would bring depreciation of the currency, but here was opposite. about carry trade, any unwinding will support yen. at the end, US have huge amount of debt and it weighs on a dollar so US also have its own troubles. to resume,...

Ignored

Nice sum up, I agree. But expect those "troubles ahead" @ end of April. Till then I play Greater fool

"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates

#56,307
Mar 4, 2015 5:43pm Mar 4, 2015 5:43pm

bikov
| Joined May 2012 | Status: Trader | 620 Posts

Quoting Tom_D_Trader

Disliked

{quote} Nice sum up, I agree. But expect those "troubles ahead" @ end of April. Till then I play Greater fool .

Ignored