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  • #965,881
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:25pm Mar 4, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I think EU is gonna start going there like in 10 minutes and closes Daily +-10 pips, prefere -, like 1,107 would do. Such case would make nice Support/Ressistance cluster for tomorrow. I like such accidents.
Looks like it.

Euro and most correlated markets are aligning for a major move. We are going to get quite a spike in volatility in the next few sessions as we are trading major news (QE and FED hikes) at virgin levels (it seldom happens but when it does ...better be ready)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #965,882
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:33pm Mar 4, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting Bigbird1
Currently: 1.1076 as of March 04, 2015 11:29:46 AM Credit Suisse entered on March 4, 2015 Short from 1.1088 (+19 pips) T/P @ 1.0836 Category: Technical Short-Term Rationale Trade History BofA Merrill EUR/USD Currently: 1.1076 as of March 04, 2015 11:29:46 AM BofA Merrill entered on February 24, 2015 Short from 1.129 (+214 pips) T/P @ 1.0765 S/L @ 1.134 Category: Technical Medium-Term Rationale Trade History Danske EUR/USD Currently: 1.1076 as of March 04, 2015 11:29:46 AM Danske entered on February 24, 2015 Short from 1.132 (+244 pips) T/P @ 1.1...
where did you get your data from?
  • #965,883
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:46pm Mar 4, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Looks like it. Euro and most correlated markets are aligning for a major move. We are going to get quite a spike in volatility in the next few sessions as we are trading major news (QE and FED hikes) at virgin levels (it seldom happens but when it does ...better be ready) sisse
I'm not sure what to make of all of this. Sounds like the move will be huge. What side are you on personally? Are you staying on the sidelines? I mean for sensible R:R you would need huge stops in order not to be stopped out because of the volatility. Does it mean it's best to stay out? Then I wonder when is there really money to be made in this market when it's advised to stay out on news releases? I realise I still have a very long way to go to get a better understanding of how it all works. The more I read and try to absorb, the less it makes sense as it all seems to contradict sometimes.
  • #965,884
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:00pm Mar 4, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} I'm not sure what to make of all of this. Sounds like the move will be huge. What side are you on personally? Are you staying on the sidelines? I mean for sensible R:R you would need huge stops in order not to be stopped out because of the volatility. Does it mean it's best to stay out? Then I wonder when is there really money to be made in this market when it's advised to stay out on news releases? I realise I still have a very long way to go to get a better understanding of how it all works. The more I read and try to absorb, the less...
Take trend direction. Sell high and buy low. For tomorrow, I sell 10 15 min before ECB conference, small risk and SL like always, no more then 35 pips to be sure but I get out fast if the move it s not sell from the start of the speech. Look at the price on 1 min chart to be familiar with the move of Euro. There is no way to say when to stay out and when to enter. The movement it s made by the news. If there is no news, no move.
  • #965,885
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:25pm Mar 4, 2015 1:25pm
​I have to state that we have begun to enter into eur long positions. Looking for a reset, off of the bottom, before nfp.
  • #965,886
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:25pm Mar 4, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting pedro319
USDJPY This one has been really slow however I am still looking for 123/125. For now move to 120.80 would be ok. Only looking for small setups to add longs as long yesterday's low remains. Positive MACD divergence H4 and bounce from WPP+.5 last swing H4.
USDJPY
ABCD H4
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  • #965,887
  • Edited 1:41pm Mar 4, 2015 1:27pm | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} USDJPY ABCD H4
I dont see your ABCD, but buy it anyway. Can you show me pls?

Also GJ. More of it.

+ chart: 119,44 entries already covered, just holding this level now.

Btw, think GJ better now, GU 1,526 weekly overshoot down. Cant find post with that level, but is old and strong. Price perfectly stuck there.

Edit: +GJ chart. Hits dotted, thats low of h4 range. Below is very strong weekly support with bottom @ 181,63. I have hidden orders, coz are everywhere and is a mess.
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  • #965,888
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:34pm Mar 4, 2015 1:34pm
Quoting ExForX
What side are you on personally? Are you staying on the sidelines?
I cleared all at 1.106x. I am flat.

Am I staying on sidelines for the news? Probably not.

i will only play a volatility move. I will position for a larger swing ONLY when i get all the data I need and once I digest the news and levels properly. For now my move for the current data (last 3 months) ended today at 1.106x.

Quote
I mean for sensible R:R you would need huge stops in order not to be stopped out because of the volatility.

R:R is NOT [never ever] a open VARIABLE but ALWAYS a CONSTANT. Otherwise i will be gambling. On stops well depends on the play but FOR SURE if stops have to be out of my range I simply pass the trade like always ...

Quote
Does it mean it's best to stay out? Then I wonder when is there really money to be made in this market when it's advised to stay out on news releases?

Yes. I will highly recommend to stay sidelined if you DONT know what you are doing. The next few session are ADVANCED trading if you know what i mean. I personally would recommend to take the opportunity to sit, watch and learn from the market if you have doubts on whats is going on at these levels or just need to learn how swing legs start and/or end.

Quote
I realise I still have a very long way to go to get a better understanding of how it all works. The more I read and try to absorb, the less it makes sense as it all seems to contradict sometimes.

We traders never stop learning. The moment we do, we get cocky and overconfident and the markets swallow us alive in no time.

I would be lying to you if I tell you that markets are easy to understand. THEY are not and sadly most traders will never make it because those contradictions can end up eating your account alive. I honestly hope is not your case.

My 2 cents, in doubt, stay sidelined [not even demo] and take the opportunity to analyse the moves from a cold and more objective perspective...you may gain a lot more than a few ticks on a knee jerk reaction on ECB/NFP...

I hope it answers your questions ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #965,889
  • Edited 1:55pm Mar 4, 2015 1:37pm | Edited 1:55pm
Lng 1.1075 TP 1.117 SL 1.1049
Daily S3
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #965,890
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:37pm Mar 4, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I dont see your ABCD, but buy it anyway. Can you show me pls? Also GJ. More of it. + chart: 119,44 entries already covered, just holding this level now. Btw, think GJ better now, GU 1,526 weekly overshoot down. Cant find post with that level, but is old and strong. Price perfectly stuck there. {image}
I haven't checked GJ for a while, trying to keep it limited to a few pairs.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #965,891
  • Edited 2:04pm Mar 4, 2015 1:48pm | Edited 2:04pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I haven't checked GJ for a while, trying to keep it limited to a few pairs.
Yes, thats very reasonable. I usually dont trade GBP, just Eur, Usd and Yen, but dodging short term USD weakness in GBP now, as I see both Yen and Eur falling.

Edit: Hm, seems we are gonna get mega bearish close :/. I have cleared most of positions, no place to reload now... But whatever, volatility is volatility, just gotta shoot like a sir tomorrow.

... So, for tomorrow targets for reload stand. 1,109 as primary 1,1148 as secondary. But PA very low, not sure I hit now, but primary should be reached.
Also GU 1,526 now very strong cluster.

Either way, hope you all had a good day. Enjoy evening and cya later. You know where I am going . Tom
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #965,892
  • Edited 2:05pm Mar 4, 2015 1:55pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} EURAUD Sell off continues and so far I don't see anything meaningful in terms of support apart from 1.3748, 0.5 Ret whole swing Monthly chart and that would be a good test. EURUSD 1.1466 is ext 3.618 D1 + MS1 + YS1, bounce is natural, reversal is possible as well, breaking down will bring 1.10, 100% extension ABCD Monthly chart. AUDUSD PA is not very impressive but there were no changes to previous outlook. USDJPY As long last swing high H4 remains I am still looking at 115.
EURAUD
This is long term chart showing 1.2700 and Yearly S2 (there is rejection of yearly PP+ .786 Ret) could happen, that means I will only stay in one direction, still needs taking the last lows out for target confirmation on W1.
Atm price at .786 Ret D1 + MS1, breaking down here is a good indication to overall direction and trend.
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  • #965,893
  • Mar 4, 2015 1:58pm Mar 4, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yes, thats very reasonable. I usually dont trade GBP, just Eur, Usd and Yen, but dodging short term USD weakness in GBP now, as I see both Yen and Eur falling. Edit: Hm, seems we are gonna get mega bearish close :/. I have cleared most of positions, no place to reload now... But whatever, volatility is volatility, just gotta shoot like a sir tomorrow.
I see you involved in all types of trades and instruments and find it absolutely amazing, if they were all long term it wouldn't surprise me but I know you do a lot of intraday as well.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #965,894
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:01pm Mar 4, 2015 2:01pm
...and we rolled ...as expected 1.108x area for the roll. Nothing to see until ECB.

For Asian session a non tradable wide range open 1.111x / 1.104x until Europe make the final move before ECB...

GL all trading overnight...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #965,895
  • Edited 2:22pm Mar 4, 2015 2:12pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I see you involved in all types of trades and instruments and find it absolutely amazing, if they were all long term it wouldn't surprise me but I know you do a lot of intraday as well.
No, it just looks like it. The main reason why I am here is because there are few people here (am subscribed to all ofc) which help me with my trading by presenting views. Often very valuable. There are many angles how one can look at market, and I acknowledged quite some time ago I dont know nothing .

As I have said, most trades are mid term till April.. some, like Aussie till 2016.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So you dont suspect am idiot while entering counter charts, it goes like this. All these charts are mid term trades till end of April, approximately, timing never precise, will follow price:EU short, EG short, UJ long, Aussie short. The rest is just to offset occasional short term USD weakness, and for this I simply use GBP/USD to switch exposure, and sometimes load Geppys or E/Gs intraweek, ofc also cover partials on main trades to dodge. FA reasons for GBP beeing the best short term dodge for USD weakness, namely Brittains following...
The point is am pretty much heavy long term long USD and since is sometimes pretty wild, I gotta watch my back, so restructure portfolio intraday, mostly to dodge USD, but also following waves in main pairs and covering partials. But those are pretty small restructures, like out of 10:1 leverage, I change 0,5:1 of instruments to match current market movement. No big deal, my floating is +- all the time the same, just minor shifts.

I admit, I restructure 10 times a day.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #965,896
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:46pm Mar 4, 2015 2:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I cleared all at 1.106x. I am flat. Am I staying on sidelines for the news? Probably not. i will only play a volatility move. I will position for a larger swing ONLY when i get all the data I need and once I digest the news and levels properly. For now my move for the current data (last 3 months) ended today at 1.106x. {quote} R:R is NOT [never ever] a open VARIABLE but ALWAYS a CONSTANT. Otherwise i will be gambling. On stops well depends on the play but FOR SURE if stops have to be out of my range I simply pass the trade like always ......
Thanks for the input. Don't worry I'm also flat, however I've had my margin calls in the past. I think the part about R:R came over wrong. My stops are NEVER fixed (x pips away)! I always try to find a sensible level where my stop has less chance to be hit. To achieve that, I play with my position size to obtain a stoploss I can live with in terms of X money lost. This X is always a percentage of my account. By adjusting distance and lotsize, I can make it wider or tighter. There are times when I don't use a stoploss, but then my positions are so small that a huge move wouldn't even scare me and I could always close manually.
Hope that clears things up.

I wish you many green pips the next couple of days. Wanted to say good luck but you're not the type to need luck. You create your own.
  • #965,897
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:04pm Mar 4, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} I think the part about R:R came over wrong. My stops are NEVER fixed (x pips away)! I always try to find a sensible level where my stop has less chance to be hit. To achieve that, I play with my position size to obtain a stoploss I can live with in terms of X money lost. .
This is the best way to be in the game.
  • #965,898
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:25pm Mar 4, 2015 3:25pm
today is AUD and GBP day Aussie starting in 1hr watching for more clues presently bullish on gj gu aussie
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  • #965,899
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:37pm Mar 4, 2015 3:37pm
Quoting KiwiTrada
today is AUD and GBP day Aussie starting in 1hr watching for more clues presently bullish on gj gu aussie
. Aussie after me again, but could be wannabe flag .

I have lied, wanna have a beer, but gotta clear all that water...

Wannawanna:
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
This is for my patterns. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJLIiF15wjQ
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  • #965,900
  • Mar 4, 2015 3:50pm Mar 4, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} . Aussie after me again, but could be wannabe flag . I have lied, wanna have a beer, but gotta clear all that water... Wannawanna: {quote} {image}
yes you have high probability considering daily trend but where to get a position right now??

I am just keeping it simple for now

Daily chart you have every right to be looking down, but for me right now I cant sell with here where she is, my best chance to get cheap entry is to try buy her, dailly zoomed in yesterday was doji so for now scalping from todays open, scalp from doji body up and same for down, nothing big
Still wait to see if bulls can have ago at the falling tl with 50sma in there abouts, should know in 40 minutes maybe
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