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USD/CAD

  • #7,021
  • Mar 3, 2015 2:28pm Mar 3, 2015 2:28pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Maybe tomorrow the rate decision can be the driven... this consolidation is getting annoying...
Not sure if the risk resides with the rate decision tomorrow since it will probably be a non event unless they indicate another rate cut soon. A rate hike or suggested rate hike is unlikely after lasts month rate cut.

Im thinking more consolidation until NFP. But who knows, maybe Yellen will say something crazy today.
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,022
  • Mar 3, 2015 2:40pm Mar 3, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
{image}
Price action break down because?
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,023
  • Mar 3, 2015 3:12pm Mar 3, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} Price action break down because?
because this triangle seems to work out for now and the fifth wave is still not there as i look at it
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  • #7,024
  • Mar 3, 2015 4:30pm Mar 3, 2015 4:30pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} because this triangle seems to work out for now and the fifth wave is still not there as i look at it {image}
I dont know. I think you are making it more complicated than it has to be or trying to hard to find a pattern.

If you simplify it, the current move (B) suggests a break out test is coming soon since you are discounting lower case b as the false break out

But technically all waves should be comprised of 3 impulse / noise waves, so ...

(A) and C - only takes into account 2 impulse waves ... (A) should be moved right 15 bars and C should be where lower case b is

and I think you are using (B) as just an assumption point even though there is more price action afterwards which currently shows more consolidation

This consolidation is tough because all technical guys want a correction, but the macros do not support it yet. I honestly thought the surprise rate cut would rip this above 1.28 and then it comes crashing in 500 pips to get cheaper.

However if you are going for baby pips I guess we could see sub 1.24 this week. Score!
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,025
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:31am Mar 4, 2015 12:31am
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} I dont know. I think you are making it more complicated than it has to be or trying to hard to find a pattern. If you simplify it, the current move (B) suggests a break out test is coming soon since you are discounting lower case b as the false break out But technically all waves should be comprised of 3 impulse / noise waves, so ... (A) and C - only takes into account 2 impulse waves ... (A) should be moved right 15 bars and C should be where lower case b is and I think you are using (B) as just an assumption point even though there is...
I am very bullish on dollar but not on short term. I have repeated for 2 weeks that it wasnt time to buy and am still not going to buy before i see 1.225-230. I did only buy once and revesed again in a matter of hours. But anyway i don't use EW to chose a direction i use it to verify or falsify the direction i am thinking of. Its a good tool if you don't overestimate it.
Attached Image
  • #7,026
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:45am Mar 4, 2015 12:45am
I think if they cut the rates, it will go up to 1.26-1.27 at least, because rate cut is not expected and I do not think it will happen. And if they keep the rates same, it will go down to 1.24 initially and then what they say in the statement about the future will be important to break that support or not.

And I hope you are right aq, Alayinizin AMK
  • #7,027
  • Mar 4, 2015 4:44am Mar 4, 2015 4:44am
Quoting cimbombom
I think if they cut the rates, it will go up to 1.26-1.27 at least, because rate cut is not expected and I do not think it will happen. And if they keep the rates same, it will go down to 1.24 initially and then what they say in the statement about the future will be important to break that support or not. And I hope you are right aq, Alayinizin AMK
we are in a very critical area now. Lets se what happens, maybe we turn the corner aq
  • #7,028
  • Mar 4, 2015 5:46am Mar 4, 2015 5:46am
Im short from 1.2525
  • #7,029
  • Mar 4, 2015 7:01am Mar 4, 2015 7:01am
Quoting cimbombom
I think if they cut the rates, it will go up to 1.26-1.27 at least, because rate cut is not expected and I do not think it will happen. And if they keep the rates same, it will go down to 1.24 initially and then what they say in the statement about the future will be important to break that support or not. And I hope you are right aq, Alayinizin AMK
I don't think the risk here is if they cut rates. It is definitely in their language and if they play "wait and see" I would think the risk would then turn to the NFP.

Note, the Canadian GDP was saved by wholesale stock piles not yet sold, so I am sure Poloz will want to know if his initial rate cut was enough to consume the over production = "wait and see".
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,030
  • Mar 4, 2015 9:27am Mar 4, 2015 9:27am
Quoting mamalujo
Im short from 1.2525
nice deal. usd/slap
  • #7,031
  • Mar 4, 2015 9:37am Mar 4, 2015 9:37am
Quoting usdoutlaw
{quote} I don't think the risk here is if they cut rates. It is definitely in their language and if they play "wait and see" I would think the risk would then turn to the NFP. Note, the Canadian GDP was saved by wholesale stock piles not yet sold, so I am sure Poloz will want to know if his initial rate cut was enough to consume the over production = "wait and see".
Actually the fact that they made no reference to future makes me think that there will be a cut in the next meeting unless the data come much better, but unlikely looking at the consumption in GDP numbers, they were all down except govt's.
  • #7,032
  • Mar 4, 2015 10:00am Mar 4, 2015 10:00am
and this ridiculous consolidation continues

I am going to trade frozen OJ futures from now on
hope for the best and expect the worst.
  • #7,033
  • Mar 4, 2015 10:26am Mar 4, 2015 10:26am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} nice deal. usd/slap
just got out with 100 pips.
  • #7,034
  • Mar 4, 2015 10:36am Mar 4, 2015 10:36am
Quoting mamalujo
{quote} just got out with 100 pips.
great i closed 50% want to go for main target 1.225 - 1.230 with the rest.
  • #7,035
  • Mar 4, 2015 11:22am Mar 4, 2015 11:22am
CAD got a boost today from the BOC statement . But oil prices sharply dropped on huge inventories. So I think CAD's rally today will be short-lived because CAD is tied to oil, being a commodity currency. So IMHO this will be a good time to start looking to long USDCAD, short CADJPY. I prefer the short CADJPY trade as it's a good proxy for the oil market ( Canada = oil exporter, Japan = oil importer). But these are just my opinions. Every trader should do his/her own analysis and remember the CFTC warning "Trading off-exchange foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and is not suitable for all investors."
  • #7,036
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:26pm Mar 4, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} great i closed 50% want to go for main target 1.225 - 1.230 with the rest.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-oil-pipelines

This helps your targets. Congratulations.
  • #7,037
  • Mar 4, 2015 12:33pm Mar 4, 2015 12:33pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-oil-pipelines This helps your targets. Congratulations.
these are justifications for price moves imo. If all this had so much effect the oil wouldn't be where it is today.
  • #7,038
  • Mar 4, 2015 2:16pm Mar 4, 2015 2:16pm
1.239 next support.
  • #7,039
  • Mar 4, 2015 6:39pm Mar 4, 2015 6:39pm
Current trade idea on UCAD. If it retests the bottom of the range I'm going to go long. If it breaks the range I'll wait for a pull back and go short.
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  • #7,040
  • Mar 4, 2015 8:17pm Mar 4, 2015 8:17pm
LOL this mother effer is taking forever to blow.
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