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  • #965,461
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:41am Mar 3, 2015 9:41am
i think im done for today , leaving office happy trades Green profits .
  • #965,462
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:42am Mar 3, 2015 9:42am
Tomorrow is NFP...I wouldn't mind some surprising after lunch spike to short...something big.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #965,463
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:45am Mar 3, 2015 9:45am
Quoting hathor
Just a tech view from the billion. {image}
And an other...
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f(z)=z2+c
  • #965,464
  • Mar 3, 2015 9:56am Mar 3, 2015 9:56am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
119,634 primary for load micro ..119,44.. 119,11, bad luck still hold few of those Geppys.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Mr Mayor on killing spree. Seems Nikkei is gonna dive. Thinking of taking few intraday UJ shorts, though I dont do this very often and aim 119,44... I just did. edit: wutta luck. I buy GU and it shoots up, sell UJ and drops . Yy, also sold Aussie and shoot against me, cant have everything.
Secondary level hit - me TP there - but also got cut on Aussie, so @ BE :/ of these two trades.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #965,465
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:04am Mar 3, 2015 10:04am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Thanks people! The concept is more or less clear, I'd just like to find out more how to apply it, eg. in this case how to get to '1.22 is a 3 sigma event'. Is there an indi of sorts? I've read that the SNB de-peg was a '20-sigma-event', talk about fat tails... This is interesting and I'd like to find out more about the underlying calculation. My logic here: I thought the likelihood was very much below 0.5%, but if general belief puts it at 0.0000000...01 (didn't calculate, please be gentle), it actually made more...

When we would have a market, that only would build Gaussian- or Gaussian-like distributions, it would perfectly make sense to trade the fat tails and bet on mean reverting.

But markets are not really mean reverting processes. Oftentimes one can bet on mean reverting. That is the reason, why Stochastic-processes work well in sideways movements. One can even trade the white noise on very small TF with mean reverting techniques.

When you have calculated the boundaries of your distribution, the tendency for mean reverting does increase, the more far away the price is from the mean.

But as a rule of thumb: when price breaks the +/- 3 SD barrier, it gets more likely, that price is looking for a new "makrostate"/ equilibrium/name it as you like.


So when price breaks the 3 SD barrier, it seems to be more wise to only bet on partial reversal, and/or to switch to trend trading techniques
  • #965,466
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:07am Mar 3, 2015 10:07am
Quoting hathor
Just a tech view from the billion. {image}
In this case: a new low is in the cards (going under 1.11 would not invalidate)

Quoting hathor
{quote} And an other... {image}
In this case: going under ~ 1.11500 would invalidate the setup / target is over previous highs (1.14xxx; 1.15xxx)
f(z)=z2+c
  • #965,467
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:09am Mar 3, 2015 10:09am
Quoting hathor
{quote} In this case: a new low is in the cards (going under 1.11 would not invalidate) {quote} In this case: going under ~ 1.11500 would invalidate the setup
I agree with both...break of 1150 is not good to long, because it opens the way towards 1070-90, which will be a much better long. But for those who don't care about some drawdown, this is already a good area to long for 200+ pips or more.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #965,468
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:11am Mar 3, 2015 10:11am
EURUSD
Market could target 1.1220, let's see if we have enough energy.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #965,469
  • Edited 10:35am Mar 3, 2015 10:11am | Edited 10:35am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I also TP one Daxie at 11400. Am not greedy, told ya.
Ooo see that Dax? What a move.
I have bought it. Sisse please dont hit me, am juggle lord. 11300 very scientific support. Also includes 13, which is lucky.

Edit: I got cut on Eur/Gbp break ,728 :/, hope it wont turn around now, intraday SL could be a bit higher.
Edit: Yy, also got cut on that Dax...micro. Cant have luck all the time.
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #965,470
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:13am Mar 3, 2015 10:13am
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...38#post8101238

there will b big move in both direction
gravity point as i mention in previous post ,which is the last door to continue down
  • #965,471
  • Mar 3, 2015 10:35am Mar 3, 2015 10:35am
Quoting attilafx
{quote} LOL
why LOL?...he is true it's only some small expected range......a little range won't hurt...it's the *never retraced* 300-500 pips move that RIP loosers...
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #965,472
  • Edited 11:02am Mar 3, 2015 10:38am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Bloomberg trololo :/. Cmon, how can someone trade crap news like this! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ernal-policies
Lool, hunt continues . Lets throw in another goat. Saw Jurassic Parc? Chramst!
http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ver-hsbc-files

edit: bought UJ on secondary level test, sold Aussie again - like an idiot, sold EU, EG. Gets confusing huh?

Edit: To prevent confusion here is my current exposure.
Edit: I also wish to cut my hands some more, so bought Daxie again (btw still holding 11194), sold more EUs and bought Geppy.

edit: 121 breached - I cover EUs in loss 0,3% and prepare for load.
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #965,473
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:02am Mar 3, 2015 11:02am
EU till where???
Attached Image
  • #965,474
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:03am Mar 3, 2015 11:03am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Lool, hunt continues . Lets throw in another goat. Saw Jurassic Parc? Chramst! http://www.theguardian.com/business/...ver-hsbc-files edit: bought UJ on secondary level test, sold Aussie again - like an idiot, sold EU, EG. Gets confusing huh? Edit: To prevent confusion here is my current exposure. Edit: I also wish to cut my hands some more, so bought Daxie again (btw still holding 11194), sold more EUs and bought Geppy. edit: 121 breached - I cover EUs in loss 0,3% and prepare for...
But dude why buying UJ if we were discussing before that JPY225 should about to fail which it did. Give it time to retrace much deeper for longs.
  • #965,475
  • Edited 11:20am Mar 3, 2015 11:04am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} But dude why buying UJ if we were discussing before that JPY225 should about to fail which it did. Give it time to retrace much deeper for longs.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
119,634 primary for load micro ..119,44.. 119,11, bad luck still hold few of those Geppys.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} TA CupNHandle which is not there, and intraday pointing 18660, FA Bloomy keeps on pressure on China. Both intraday. Bloomy+west always counter China boom news and Nikkis reacts, lately. Also can be called Shampoo, I dont care, is just a support break. {image}
Am just warming up . Stops below 119,11

edit: Omg dont you tell me EU just hit technical intraday SL and high is 2 pips above :/ sick.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #965,476
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:07am Mar 3, 2015 11:07am
Quoting OnlineAddict
Tomorrow is NFP...I wouldn't mind some surprising after lunch spike to short...something big.
Right on time...Wall Street is so predictable sometimes.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #965,477
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:10am Mar 3, 2015 11:10am
I might try some longs near 1.1187 if the chance presents itself...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #965,478
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:14am Mar 3, 2015 11:14am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Right on time...Wall Street is so predictable sometimes.
hi! I'm new here. Can i ask what is your target to reload short?
  • #965,479
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:15am Mar 3, 2015 11:15am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Right on time...Wall Street is so predictable sometimes.
  • #965,480
  • Mar 3, 2015 11:15am Mar 3, 2015 11:15am
Well, US session was very interesting...
2 days short, today long...

I got stopped at BE, scalped a bit long and off for today.
Anyway, still bearish with a view on 11400.
Will see tmr what London will do and if the US keeps long, or changes again.

GL everyone and green pips.
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