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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #201
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:20am Feb 26, 2015 4:20am
Each deciding to trade itself.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #202
  • Feb 26, 2015 7:42am Feb 26, 2015 7:42am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #203
  • Feb 26, 2015 8:07am Feb 26, 2015 8:07am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #204
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:50am Feb 26, 2015 10:50am
Friday
15:30
02/27/15
1 Comments
Revised US GDP data
(US Prelim GDP), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #205
  • Feb 26, 2015 10:58am Feb 26, 2015 10:58am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Canadian grown.

Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz said that his institution will take some time to see the effects of interest rate cuts in January 2015.
"The January decline in the interest rate gives us some time to evaluate the response of economic processes. Not necessarily that we will continue the policy of reducing interest rates in the near future. "
Poloz signaled transparent enough that the reduction in interest rates at the meeting in March, the Bank is not a mandatory program.
The Bank of Canada is in "standby" probably CAD continues to closely monitor its macroeconomic indicators, and we will continue to ensure that both will change before the release of official forecasts Steytment with the interest rate decision on March 4th.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #206
  • Feb 26, 2015 11:04am Feb 26, 2015 11:04am
Yellen defined procedure Fed raising interest rates.

Very briefly and very aptly by the speech Janet Yellen: Do not expect a rate hike in the next few months.
A little wider, and we have already raised this question: the Fed to begin to warn us that the time has come to a radical change in monetary policy, Janet uttered the phrase "before you move to raise interest rates, the Fed will change the wording of" patience "in his landmark "itself in a huge flow of information - it should be important for you to Fedrezu.

Let us turn to the Dow and made important phrases for you under the pencil:
* Before going to raise interest rates, the Fed will change the wording of "patience" in his landmark
* Economic growth in China may slow more than expected
* Fed to follow the growth of wages, "significant" growth is not observed
* Wage growth tends to be a lagging indicator of progress in the labor market
* Fed could jeopardize the economic recovery by raising rates too soon
* Fed does not want inflation remained chronically below the target level of 2%

By Mark Carney (Bank of England) quiet, he just said (raised) the importance of inflation and deflation risks marked: "There is an opportunity and a desire to return inflation to the target level," he said. Apparently, the Bank of England is this and will, and yet we do not have the normal inflation rate of change can be no question. Is that (really) started talking about reducing the rate ... but this scenario is unlikely as long as the markets will remain in the position of "deferred% increase of the Bank."
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #207
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:15am Feb 27, 2015 7:15am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Bullard sees 2% US unemployment in the second half of the year.

The dollar gained significant portion of fundamental data. Perhaps the most powerful of them are: overcoming the annual CPI barrier and negative statements Bullard.
For the first time since December 2009 the annual US CPI came in negative zone: -0.1% in the previous figures of 0.8%. On the one hand, nothing surprising - decline in oil prices, but on the other hand, there is a two-day presentation by Janet Yellen, who is in no hurry to raise rates and closely monitors the state of inflation. But the dollar is still comforting Core indicators that do not take into account the price of fuel, it remains unchanged: 1.6% in annual terms. Note also the publication of US Durable Goods: 2,8% vs. 1.6%.
Bullard (Fed) and did "otzheg": he believes that the unemployment rate in the second half of 2015 will be less than 2%. At the same time it points to the importance of Core CPI and CPI ignores the low score and believes inflation is quite acceptable level (excluding fuel price of course). Most victims against such a background made against the dollar EUR, at the same time, by the way, Bullard wants to remove the word "patience" of the Minutes of the Fed in March.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #208
  • Mar 1, 2015 11:30am Mar 1, 2015 11:30am
Monday
11:30
02/03/15
GB Activity Index GOOD industry
(GB Manufacturing PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Monday
17:00
02/03/15
US ISM index of business optimism
(US ISM Manufacturing PMI), USA, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #209
  • Mar 1, 2015 11:39am Mar 1, 2015 11:39am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

4 decision on the interest rate for one week.

February is gone and left in the history of market volatility only "positive" image: winter does not remember such saturated months for many years. Last week it was no exception, but the first week of spring already tried to cut off his own events: we will see the publication of four decisions on interest rates and Nonfarm.
USD
Decoration of last week's winter for the dollar became Janet Yellen, who tickled markets and support vector defined protocols Fed last week.
As part of the report before the Banking Committee of the Congress Janet took off voltage with the most "hot" market participants - the rate, in accordance with its hints will not be increased in the first half of the year, count on this action is possible only in the second half of 2015. At the same time, it recognized that does not accept the sharp market reaction to changes in the minutes of the Fed, and noted that the markets will be alerted to upcoming monetary developments: acts as a guide for the phrase "patience," and it will be removed from the protocol before the Fed rate increase.
However, after Janet gave James Bullard, who has shown a desire to remove the «patient» in March, but this is most likely due to the realm of fantasy hawks.
We have one more player, less hawkish Lockhart, who said he was ready to support a rate increase, if he sees inflation, while "in the FOMC should give greater weight to the inflation than growth rates of the labor market."
Fed remains in spectator mode, and its actions will directly depend on the statistics of the US economy.
A statistics this week was:

(Indicator / Actual / Forecast)
New Home Sales 481K / 471K
CPI -0.7% / - 0.6%
Core CPI 0.2% / 0.1%
Prelim GDP 2.2% / 2.1% (previous data but 2.6%)

But that's nothing compared to what we will see in the following: limited to one called Non-Farm Employment Change, although there is still a lot of interesting ...
Thus, the dollar is now in the "react to the foundation," and we only have this foundation right track.

EUR
Greece. In this paragraph review for Euro can and finish ...
The EU has demonstrated its assertive position in the Greek question, Greece seems to be not against the compromise to the creditors, but a "political person" should have newfound leadership to remain "pure", in view of this additional tyagomotina, but the message from Friday: Germany approved the extension of the program of financial aid to Greece (but for four months extension).
Euro, perhaps, focus on the following Thursday, namely at the meeting of the ECB and its decision on the rate and other aspects of monetary policy. By the way, the press said that the most likely European QE starts on March 9 (recall the good from the ECB a long time already).
Thus, the Euro will have new fundamental infusion only on Thursday, at a press conference by Mario Draghi, traditionally held after the meeting of the ECB.

GBP
Recognized fact: Britain may plunge into deflation processes, however, as well as recognized (Mark Carney) the fact that the Bank of England will not put up with it. What is going to do regulator is not yet clear, the Bank report that this temporary difficulties associated with low oil prices.
Published the second edition of the British GDP data, which is no change in its value is not made 0.5% as the previous 0.5%.
Pound enjoy plenty of new statistics starting this Monday, which it really is not enough: PMI for all tastes (Manufacturing, Construction, Services). Mark Carney and the Bank of England's decision on interest rates.
Fuel to the fire of quotations GBP, last week, tried to pour Kristin Forbes (member MPC): «I think the normalization of interest rates, but the increase of the rate depends on the growth of wages."
Rate decision awaits us this Thursday.

CAD
After the speech, Stephen Poloz official forecasts for the subsequent reduction in Canadian interest rates have been changed: more analysts do not expect a rate cut at the meeting of the Bank of Canada in March, although the introduction to his speech was very different.
Before skid wants to contemplate the effect of the previous decline, and only then decide whether to take or not to take further action.
Runner signaled transparent enough that the reduction in interest rates at the meeting in March, the Bank is not a mandatory program, look likely as history has shown always. Meeting of the Bank of Canada is expected on Wednesday.

AUD and NZD
Already have official forecasts according to which key agencies, is expected to decrease interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia. 60% of those surveyed economists predict another rate cut by 25 basis points on Tuesday (from the current 2.25% to 2.00%).
Nevertheless, the RBA in their protocols signaled there are no plans for further "nearest" to reduce the interest rate. On the face of the game with the markets. We, by the way, is suitable for any trading situation "have not guessed," even such a forecast: "reduced rate", which in fact does not occur - the volatility jumps.
Plans for Spring
Spring, friends come. Now, not only the temperature will rise gradually, but the markets will gradually increase the degree. Boiling point is expected by the summer, when we come to the main monetary surprises from the central banks. Although winter we complained sovey dynamics: a series of interest rates unchanged, while they themselves introductory monetary trends have been specifically deployed in sleeping.

In the spring, you, my friends.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #210
  • Mar 1, 2015 10:54pm Mar 1, 2015 10:54pm
Monday March 2, 2015

At 2:30 am EST Sweden will release Manufacturing PMI. Expected at 55.0 after a prior of 55.1.

At 3:00 am EST Norway will release Manufacturing PMI. Expected at 51.5 after a prior of 51.9.

At 5:00 am EST Eurostat will release CPI Flash Estimate y/y. Expected at -0.5 after a prior of -0.6.


Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #211
  • Mar 2, 2015 3:15am Mar 2, 2015 3:15am
I watched a broadcast with Janet Yellen's speech recently but really didn't expect it to come out this way.

P.S. vvFish, hot news! Don't stop publishing Good luck you too!
  • #212
  • Mar 2, 2015 3:37am Mar 2, 2015 3:37am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #213
  • Mar 2, 2015 9:06am Mar 2, 2015 9:06am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #214
  • Mar 2, 2015 9:12am Mar 2, 2015 9:12am
Tuesday
5:30
03/03/15
3 Comments
AU Interest
(AU Cash Rate), Australia, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 55.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Tuesday
15:30
03/03/15
CA GDP growth GOOD
(CA GDP), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #215
  • Mar 2, 2015 9:16am Mar 2, 2015 9:16am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

AU Cash Rate


We already wrote about the fact that 60% of analysts expect to see a subsequent reduction in interest rates in this release. Recall that for the first time since August 2013, the Reserve Bank of Australia has resorted to a decrease in the interest rate from 2.5% to 2.25% in February this year, which was a complete surprise for the markets.
Comments in the minutes of the RBA did not have to lower rates in March, but the economic component and the overall condition tell a different story, at least as economists believe, according to the survey which constitutes the official forecasts.
Needless to guess, a lot has been written up to this day, we can only wait for the release.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
AU Interest
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
03/02/2015 -0.25 Fall 70 pairs
01.07.2014 0 24 Height couples
06/03/2014 0 10 No reaction
05/06/2014 0 13 No reaction
04/01/2014 0 15 A small increase
03/04/2014 0 10 No reaction
02/04/2014 0 15-50 gradually sedate growth of trade pairs.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #216
  • Mar 2, 2015 9:41pm Mar 2, 2015 9:41pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #217
  • Mar 3, 2015 1:24am Mar 3, 2015 1:24am
Tuesday
11:30
03/03/15
GB index of business activity in the construction sector
(GB Construction PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #218
  • Mar 3, 2015 1:41am Mar 3, 2015 1:41am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Reserve Bank of Australia remained unchanged at 2.25%.

Reserve Bank of Australia, contrary to predictions, left interest rates unchanged: 2.25% with the comments in the minutes "While appropriate to leave interest rates unchanged." It looks like the RBA remains in standby mode, with a hint of further interest rate cut:
- See below trend growth
- Easing of monetary policy is still possible in the future
- The Australian dollar remains high
- For a balanced growth requires low AUD
As you can see, with accompanying notes are soft and not aggressive. AUD remains sensitive to their statistics, of particular interest will be paid to the publication of quarterly GDP.
Once again confirmed the information that the ECB will begin QE from March 9.
Over the weekend, China cut interest rates by 25 basis points: The statement of the Central Bank indicate increased deflationary risks, in particular, the consequences of the fall in global commodity prices.
UK Manufacturing PMI is almost at the level of forecasts: 54.1 vs 53.5, on the order of publication of Construction PMI
A preliminary look at the consumer price index EU talks about pullback from the minimum values:
-0.3% Vs. -0.5% forecast
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #219
  • Mar 3, 2015 7:58am Mar 3, 2015 7:58am
Wednesday
2:30
04/03/15
AU GDP growth HOT!
(AU GDP), Australia, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 40.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Wednesday
11:30
04/03/15
GB activity index in the service sector GOOD
(GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
PMI services sector, though the most important industrial and "building" for us in a fundamental assessment, but the previous two, with their releases, however namekayut- be careful sentiment indicators probably not so interesting now.

Wednesday
17:00
04/03/15
CA overnight rate BC
(CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #220
  • Mar 3, 2015 1:06pm Mar 3, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting vvFish
Wednesday 2:30 04/03/15 AU GDP growth HOT! (AU GDP), Australia, AUDUSD Average response when triggered flip-flops 40.00 points in the first minute after the release. 35% probability trades. Wednesday 11:30 04/03/15 GB activity index in the service sector GOOD (GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release. 15% probability trades. PMI services sector, though the most important industrial and "building" for us in a fundamental assessment, but the previous two, with their...
VVFish... can you shed some light on the way you trade the news? or is it some secret method... that you dont want to share with public? curious...!
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