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EURUSD

  • #964,661
  • Feb 27, 2015 6:59am Feb 27, 2015 6:59am
Quoting sophiaphia
1.1212 long TP 1.129 SL 1.119
SL hit yesterday. so close to being a good one
----- Dragonfly out in the sun you know what I mean, don't you know
  • #964,662
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:00am Feb 27, 2015 7:00am
Quoting disegnosys
{quote} Great! Lets all rush out to buy these great investments. WFT! Who in their right mind wants to do that.
Here's how to make some money! Get investors to lend you money at negative interest rates. Then lend that money out via a department store chain like Macy's at 25% interest!
  • #964,663
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:03am Feb 27, 2015 7:03am
Quoting nonlinear
Took a sell in EJ
Still holding this one, waiting on 130 ish
  • #964,664
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:06am Feb 27, 2015 7:06am
what are the chances that if US GDP not good enough we are back to 1.1350 today.
Everything you want lies on the other side of fear.
  • #964,665
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:07am Feb 27, 2015 7:07am
Quoting sisse
.....For the european session a bumpy ride to 1.124x is wide open till the GDP news later for a play to complete 1.116x. Monthly low is not set yet and yesterday leg left the door open for 1.103x....Action expected later for news and the NY opening session to set the low of the month. sisse
As expected a bumpy ride to 1.124x was completed in the european morning session confirmed now with German CPI readings. We are getting ready for the last mover of the month and to set the low and closing range.

GDP numbers especially important after the FED latest dovish minutes and its the 2nd variable in the equation (we saw the impact of those inflation numbers yesterday !!!). Similar impact analysis for the upcoming news as yesterday.

On the fundamental side very simple analysis.

 

  1. Expecting a bit of a tiny slowdown in comparison with the previous 2 quarters but keeping the solid uptrend in growth. Anything between 2 and 2.5% it's a healthy print and it will keep us on the same track for the FED hikes on Jun/Aug as expected.
  2. An overshoot (like with inflation yst) will send short term shockwaves and send the dollar flying high again because it will kill all FED dovish and force them to start making plans for hikes with more details in the next meeting
  3. An undershoot below 2% will cancel dollar rally until next FED meeting confirms the dovish tone and it will give the benefit of the doubt for hikes later than expected.

On the technical side and for the actual flows, the play extends to NY session cause of monthly roll.

  1. An inline with expectation move will open a double mini leg to max 1.127x/6x and then completed the move to 1.116x. Leaving the monthly roll settle around the 1.12xx handle.
  2. An overshoot. A one way ticket non stop to 1.116x if taken, 1.103x/6x for the monthly roll at the very lows.
  3. An undershoot will put as back at the top of the 1.12xx handle in no time, and settle the roll at the never ending 1.127x area....

Lets see how it goes...

GL all trading the last session of the month...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #964,666
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:10am Feb 27, 2015 7:10am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As expected a bumpy ride to 1.124x was completed in the european morning session confirmed now with German CPI readings. .... Lets see how it goes... GL all trading the last session of the month... sisse
You gotta love this guy, even as a beginner!
Thanks sisse
  • #964,667
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:16am Feb 27, 2015 7:16am
Quoting Neeraj_Raj
what are the chances that if US GDP not good enough we are back to 1.1350 today.
50/50
  • #964,668
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:18am Feb 27, 2015 7:18am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This is where I'll exit my longs. - spread, maybe before gdp..
Closed everything. Made up losses and then some. Good luck yall- ima celebrate by sleeping in.
  • #964,669
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:24am Feb 27, 2015 7:24am
Quoting Neeraj_Raj
what are the chances that if US GDP not good enough we are back to 1.1350 today.
Possible sell at 1.1317..........
  • #964,670
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:25am Feb 27, 2015 7:25am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As expected a bumpy ride to 1.124x was completed in the european morning session confirmed now with German CPI readings. We are getting ready for the last mover of the month and to set the low and closing range. GDP numbers especially important after the FED latest dovish minutes and its the 2nd variable in the equation (we saw the impact of those inflation numbers yesterday !!!). Similar impact analysis for the upcoming news as yesterday. On the fundamental side very simple analysis. Expecting a bit of a tiny slowdown in comparison with...
Excellent piece!

Green pips everyone!
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #964,671
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:28am Feb 27, 2015 7:28am
Please dont take it seriously ....

my thoughts it should go up ......
Re-Incarnated
  • #964,672
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:29am Feb 27, 2015 7:29am
Added to usd longs everything i took off yesterday, hoping GDP doesnt screw me haha. Tightening up stops.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #964,673
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:32am Feb 27, 2015 7:32am
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #964,674
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:33am Feb 27, 2015 7:33am
Slightly better numbers but in general inline with expectations play

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #964,675
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:33am Feb 27, 2015 7:33am
Last move of the month ..... hope every1 enjoyed the month with green pips ....

out of the trade coz of last day and even friday .... see you all guys next month .... bye take care and njoy the weekend ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #964,676
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:34am Feb 27, 2015 7:34am
Looking at the market reaction, it started with "COOL!" then "Meh... "

We should start trading in range till the next news release (Home sales?), I don't expect higher highs or lower lows here.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #964,677
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:35am Feb 27, 2015 7:35am
Quoting sisse
Slightly better numbers but in general inline with expectations play sisse
it's time to see 1.1100.....???
wait for good news..
  • #964,678
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:36am Feb 27, 2015 7:36am
Quoting YvetteTeo
Looking at the market reaction, it started with "COOL!" then "Meh... " We should start trading in range till the next news release (Home sales?), I don't expect higher highs or lower lows here.
Looks like sell the rumor, buy the facts kinda thing. Almost 200 pips yesterday and so cool today
Everything you want lies on the other side of fear.
  • #964,679
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:36am Feb 27, 2015 7:36am
Quoting primejarvis
Last move of the month ..... hope every1 enjoyed the month with green pips
Is not finished, market is just preparing for final thrust. Ofc I know where . See, that GU long was just to switch long exposure from USD to GBP a bit, am not short bucks, I like em.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #964,680
  • Feb 27, 2015 7:38am Feb 27, 2015 7:38am
ohh market is stop....no move........wahhhhh.
wait for good news..
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