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  • #964,421
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:33pm Feb 26, 2015 3:33pm
So to progress with scenario, I always talk about waves within waves. Am watching M/W/D/H4 consolidation ranges and waves. And hold many trades with different stops varying in time. In math for last 10 or so. I like numbers, my favourite are odds.
Quoting sisse
its not an overshoot anymore but a change of direction
Mate am not trading illiquid CHF and SL is set. You wanna tell me there comes a day when I get 50 pips gap and loose 5% instead of 1?

Edit: I trust you this though. Such a day will come.. one day. But I will be prepared.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #964,422
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:39pm Feb 26, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting fxtyrant
closed my gbpusd short early for 120 pip profit. At 1.54ish. Its getting late in Hong Kong and i dont want to hold the trade overnight while im asleep...
I also closed my GU short at 1.54 for 150 pips profit. Thanks for the profit
  • #964,423
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:39pm Feb 26, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting guess121
It looks nailed on... it has just taken out all those that were long... monthly lows look likely.... let's see how she plays out... {quote}
why if the eurusd has been stuck in an intractable range for a whole month to finally break down , would anyone even consider buying.. human reasoning is incomprehensible and unfathomable
  • #964,424
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:41pm Feb 26, 2015 3:41pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Nah ......... unless over/under shoot will turn dollar upside down but 119.8x is calling {image}
yeah wont be around. ill wait for frankfurt
no balls to try au td. retrace is strong, will fade it probably
will see dollal pawar in the morning
  • #964,425
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:43pm Feb 26, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} yeah wont be around. ill wait for frankfurt no balls to try au td. retrace is strong, will fade it probably will see dollal pawar in the morning
Yep Asia session AU is inverse of UJ
  • #964,426
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:43pm Feb 26, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
... Mate am not trading illiquid CHF and SL is set. You wanna tell me there comes a day when I get 50 pips gap and loose 5% instead of 1?
Right, so as long as you have iron discipline and not start moving stops from the mini trades to the swing trades (for the just in case) and you have very tight capital control (you like maths so you shouldn't have a problem) and moreover don't start getting lost in translation in charts between swings and swings ... I guess it's an idea that requires a lot of work and micromanagement but it can work...

In any case, euro setting up for a clean sweep roll ...lets see if we hold below the 1.12xx handle for the close....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #964,427
  • Edited 3:58pm Feb 26, 2015 3:44pm | Edited 3:58pm
"why if the eurusd has been stuck in an intractable range for a whole month to finally break down , would anyone even consider buying.. human reasoning is incomprehensible and unfathomable"

Because tomorrow's GDP will be horrendous and DXY didn't break 95.50. Just went long on both GBP and EUR. We'll be right back to 1.135 tomorrow and target of 1.16. I have a stop at 1.527 GBP and 1.109 EUR. 13 lots each.
  • #964,428
  • Edited 3:55pm Feb 26, 2015 3:49pm | Edited 3:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Right, so as long as you have iron discipline
Sir yes sir! Am gonna be like Ironman. For the "lost in translation" part, am gonna be moving this scalping part to separate account, so I can easier keep track of trades.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #964,429
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:50pm Feb 26, 2015 3:50pm
Agreed... but I hear people talking about buying... makes me think that peeps are caught on the wrong side of the trade at the moment... people that are short also need to BUY up to close shorts, therefore you should see a move up... this makes me think that stops will be triggered and then USD for some reason is strengthened... or most likely as it is coming to end of month... people are closing out their trades... for example GU... all longs have been closed.

Quoting mkvy
{quote} why if the eurusd has been stuck in an intractable range for a whole month to finally break down , would anyone even consider buying.. human reasoning is incomprehensible and unfathomable
  • #964,430
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:58pm Feb 26, 2015 3:58pm
Remarkable broke down the support levels for the eur/usd today and expecting more bearish than 1.1184 soon.
  • #964,431
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:58pm Feb 26, 2015 3:58pm
A big day in my fx career
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  • #964,432
  • Feb 26, 2015 3:59pm Feb 26, 2015 3:59pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Yep Asia session AU is inverse of UJ
anzd 94/95? seems min.
  • #964,433
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:01pm Feb 26, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I dont want to be a prophet but GU consolidating @ weekly level,..... EU, UJ and GJ monthly levels as well... think fun is over and market just preparing for tomorrow.. Only GU weekly seems is not gonna hold...just m15 chart now, but start is start...h1 1,5413.. 1,121.. 119,43.. 183,96
GJ hit.. UJ almost, rest a bit moved, but those are long term levels

Edit: Back to clusters These are gonna be strong levels later... combined with D close ofc.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #964,434
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:11pm Feb 26, 2015 4:11pm
...and we rolled. Clean sweep for bears in a direct leg with lots of momentum once the cluster of stops below 1.127x got hammered. As suspected since last week the low of the month wouldn't be set until the last day of trading.

The last move opened a very interesting day for intraday trading tomorrow and the W/M roll. Rolling bellow 1.12xx left the door wide open for a a test 1.103x.

Slightly bullish intraday close for the Asian session. 1.124x open for a test overnight in a non tradable leg for my taste since Tokyo rode the move from the top and they don't need to reload. To the other side 1.116x is naked for a quick test until the European open. The movers will come later with GDP news and the key closes...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #964,435
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:22pm Feb 26, 2015 4:22pm
if anyone checks out the youtube channel Forex Reviews... nice videos, and i think he is one of the better channels to follow... yes he hard sells his strategies...
I still think its worth a look...

However he seems to look at buy and sell zones... any of which has not been reached yet... if you followed his guides... you would have made no money yet... not even today... i fear its another sit on the fence trading idea... sure you would not have lost any money..
''if it goes up to this level sell''
  • #964,436
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:22pm Feb 26, 2015 4:22pm
Quoting fearofloss
Hey! Can someone explain me what happened today with that sharp EUR/USD fall? As I am totally new in forex - i still place big part on checking fundamentals and according to forexfactory ratios - i did not see anything that extraordinary to make such a big fall. What did I get wrong? Thanks!
The E/U pair has been falling quickly since last summer due to confluence of ending US QE and the announcement of ECB QE. After hitting a new low that hasn't been seen since mid-2003 at the end of January, the pair has congested in Feb due to confusion about; the ECB's right to begin QE, Greece bailout/concerns, Ukraine, the time table for a Fed rate hike as well as the simple expectation of a meaningful retrace after 8 straight down months for this pair. In Feb, the price began to form a wedge with a floor at 1.127ish and a series of lower highs. These wedges forming during a clear trend and emerging out from consolidation tend to breakout when they get sufficiently squeezed or narrowed (the price has to go somewhere). In this case, the end of the month is near and the prevailing sentiment is that the E/U will continue to fall since it's just the beginning of ECB QE and the Fed will likely raise interest rates at some point this year. As a result of the bearish bias, the wedge squeeze and the immediate catalyst of several 'positive' USD prints this morning - the inevitable breakout occurred that you have asked about. There simply isn't enough justification for the E/U to end the month much higher than in Jan despite all the confusion, so the trend resumes.
  • #964,437
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:23pm Feb 26, 2015 4:23pm
Well, have a nice evening all, or whatever timezone you are at , just nice. Am gonna go get obligate midnight beer after NY close. See, Prague is great.
Cya later,
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #964,438
  • Edited 5:17pm Feb 26, 2015 4:36pm | Edited 5:17pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Best way to trade fx options is otc ... but there're certainly alternatives like futures options on cme, ice etc. Long calls ... hmmm ... why that far out , otm atm or itm?
I'll shoot you a pm, i typed out a long paragraph, most of which has nothing to do with EU...and realized I gave out a bit more information than I'm comfortable with in public

Couldn't pm you so to summarize

I'll be getting ahold of Oanda for possible fx options

Yearlies mostly because it's easier for me, albeit expensive. 1 contract usually eats my risk, less volatile, less maintenance. Only one I'm in right now is GS 180 call I got back in May '14 for Jan '16. If you look at the M chart, it was an easy call to make. I'm no option pro- but I understand them enough to incorporate. FX has eaten most of my very limited time. and even more-so now. At that time frame I can only afford OTM
  • #964,439
  • Edited 4:50pm Feb 26, 2015 4:39pm | Edited 4:50pm
closed day below 1209 and 1279.. unlikely to get much bounce out of Asia. if it happens, 1281 may be a good place to s. probably bulls last shot before month closes. i personally dont see why one would even try a spot L for more then a few. much less anyone with real money
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #964,440
  • Feb 26, 2015 4:41pm Feb 26, 2015 4:41pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} anzd 94/95? seems min.
Not sure let's see - a bounce from 119.2x indicating Wellington is buying
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