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  • #963,481
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:59pm Feb 24, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting mkvy
{quote} i dont believe forex is gambling... with gambling you have a chance of winning.
  • #963,482
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:04pm Feb 24, 2015 2:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} same question back at u? " how can you trade with a certain outcome? "
Gambling needs to be defined properly. Googled for meaning/definition, maybe will help in this discussion:

- play games of chance for money; bet.
- take risky action in the hope of a desired result
  • #963,483
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:05pm Feb 24, 2015 2:05pm
std later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #963,484
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:07pm Feb 24, 2015 2:07pm
Quoting leeon
{quote} how can you trade with a certain outcome? a system that you develop is based on past data. so you find a pattern and decide to trade on it. but the outcome will be the same only if the situation from the past (observation period) will stay the same. how sure can you be that tomorrow will be the same than yesterday? probably 50 % and on the other hand, according to the central limit theorem, all random events will in long term get to a ratio of 50 %. for example a coin flip. maybe an event that you noticed in the past that had a success...
history comes back and bite u butt simple and u better be looped rules never changed we do
  • #963,485
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:08pm Feb 24, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting mkvy
its been 1.1339 at least 46 times in the last 3 weeks just by counting the h4 candles, so there we have it... ZERO SUM GAME! one could make more money collecting bottle tops
This situation is heaven for the range trader so I'm not sure why you would say that. I guess you come from a more trend-type of trading. Nevertheless don't hesitate to stay out of a trade if you're not sure your criteria are met (regardless of ranging/trend strategy). As our parents always said: A penny saved is a penny earned.
  • #963,486
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:08pm Feb 24, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} same question back at u? " how can you trade with a certain outcome? "
only if you know for a fact that something will happen. for example a congressman who knows that a highway will be built on a specific property in two years and she buys that property today...

how can you know this in forex? i am not saying that it is not possible! it is much harder to prove that something doesn't exist than that something exists i am just asking
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #963,487
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:18pm Feb 24, 2015 2:18pm
IMO:

Short term:
- after closing 01.30.2015 suddenly next month (Febr) opened with a nice gap up. That gap is looks like a loading zone -> price is forced up -> first should take out highs -> than crack the loading zone/defended zone (~1.12750)

Mid term:
- 2015 started with a decent fall -> January's open and high is 1.19995 -> this year the price didn't move a pip over the open price! -> these type of highs are usually before making temporary(?)/longer term(?) bottoms -> and cracked (than what happens is an other story)
f(z)=z2+c
  • #963,488
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:19pm Feb 24, 2015 2:19pm
The weakest currency today was NZD after weak inflation projection (below 2% in incoming years). On the other side of scale was CAD which gained after BoC Poloz statement.
Attached Image
  • #963,489
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:21pm Feb 24, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting leeon
{quote} only if you know for a fact that something will happen. for example a congressman who knows that a highway will be built on a specific property in two years and she buys that property today... how can you know this in forex? i am not saying that it is not possible! it is much harder to prove that something doesn't exist than that something exists i am just asking
It is easier to know what is going to happen next in forex than anything else and you don't need to be a congressman at all. You don't even have to arrange white money to buy that property or think about how you are going to hide the black money earned by selling this privileged information. The only issue is finding the source of this information. One reason I am meditating now a days to find god.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #963,490
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:41pm Feb 24, 2015 2:41pm
S 1342

St 1348

1% risk, 5+% tp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM5.png Size: 67 KB
  • #963,491
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:43pm Feb 24, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
S 1342 St 1348
I like your sl, but not the trade.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #963,492
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:43pm Feb 24, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting Pharm0r
S 1342 St 1348 1% risk, 5+% tp

you took a shortt
  • #963,493
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:47pm Feb 24, 2015 2:47pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I like your sl, but not the trade.
  • #963,494
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:48pm Feb 24, 2015 2:48pm
Hope your trading session has been productive so far today. I want to share with you my edge. Okay, here goes: I do the opposite of what the majority here does! Haha. In all seriousness though, if I were to look at the PA of EUR/USD without any bias (my bias is downtrend as is the technical bias), it would be a no brainer that it wanted to go up near term. Looking to see what the current 4H candle does at these levels. The macro picture hasn't changed much, except that the Greece crisis has been averted for now, and the Fed is taking a measured approach to tightening. This means upside potential. Not saying it goes up from here for sure, but the odds favor it more than last Friday.
  • #963,495
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:49pm Feb 24, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting leeon
{quote} how can you trade with a certain outcome? ... how sure can you be that tomorrow will be the same than yesterday? probably 50 % and on the other hand, according to the central limit theorem, all random events will in long term get to a ratio of 50 %. for example a coin flip. maybe an event that you noticed in the past that had a success ration of more than 50 % was just a deviation from this and will in future move towards the 50 %. therefore your strategy will get worse every day... if you say that the markets are rigged therefore,...
IMO, you are looking at trading from the wrong angle.

 

  1. Successful trading is not about being right on a certain target outcome but about minimising risk. Sounds the same, but it's not. That is one of the key difference between successful traders and the rest ...
  2. Your 50% ratio hold true only when you extend the universe of your sample to a very large test [to infinitum]. In trading there is a hard constant the limit that: Capital. If you add capital in the equation the ratio is way out of the mean. Successful traders will be more toward the high % while the rest will be aligned to the low %.
  3. Assuming you random 50% ratio as true, I will guarantee to be a millionaire in no time. Why? Because you are reducing the problem to only 1 variable a r:r. Since 50% is assumed as given according to your comments, as long as you reward is better than your risk in whatever system you use you are are going to be in +.
  4. Charts and patterns maybe random but actual player involved in the markets ARE NOT. The idea that a chart has a life of its own its a SCREAMING FALSE. Our charts only reflects the action and interaction of player in a given underlying in a graphical way. Therefore you can define certain conditions & patterns depending on the players interest that are not RANDOM from a technical perspective.
  5. and more importantly, a currency pair is MADE and influence by Fundamentals. Hate it or not, ignore it or not, that is the main reason for any underlying to move.

For example, the Euro doesn't suddenly by itself decide tomorrow to move to 1.60xx or 2.xx just because price start following some kind of supernatural pattern. They move because actors/players involved take actions and decision based on those fundamental valuation (or the perceived value) and in order to evaluate what is good value, enough value or bad value, traders use a variety of tools.

If you manage to find one (impossible to be a master in all of them !!!) or a couple of tools that allow you to value an underlying at any level you can break the mental idea of a fix 50% random outcome...

In any case, equities closed at the highs making new highs ...in the euro 1.133x only level to track for the roll.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #963,496
  • Feb 24, 2015 2:59pm Feb 24, 2015 2:59pm
Quoting Pharm0r
S 1342 St 1348 1% risk, 5+% tp {image}
This M5 candle will decide.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #963,497
  • Feb 24, 2015 3:05pm Feb 24, 2015 3:05pm
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} Fishing for 1347

I gave you guys 1347 hours ago, i first mentioned it first thing this morning, that is not some random number, have a look what it means for PA. Why trade if you can't see what is right in front of you in the chart.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #963,498
  • Feb 24, 2015 3:11pm Feb 24, 2015 3:11pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This M5 candle will decide. {image}
Yes, but not sure about "This"
USDOLLAR M5:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #963,499
  • Feb 24, 2015 3:13pm Feb 24, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Yes, but not sure about "This" USDOLLAR M5: {image}
Such beautiful correlation..

Thats a decending triangle if there ever was one (but I don't trade triangles)

still hanging in there...
  • #963,500
  • Feb 24, 2015 3:20pm Feb 24, 2015 3:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} IMO, you are looking at trading from the wrong angle. Successful trading is not about being right on a certain target outcome but about minimising risk. Sounds the same, but it's not. That is one of the key difference between successful traders and the rest ... Your 50% ratio hold true only when you extend

...in the euro 1.133x only level to track for the roll. sisse

I admire your wisdom sir.
can you explain the last comment "level to track for the roll.
what does "roll" refer to and how do you determine this level?
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