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  • #963,461
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:25pm Feb 24, 2015 1:25pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when u can trade with a certain outcome, its no longer gambling.
What is a certain outcome looks like? do you mean 100%? or 99%? 100% and 99% is not the same. Unless you are the god, I don't see a way you would obtain the 100% certainty.

You might be over 95% right, but getting the rest 5% in your favorite is impossible.

Combine this 5% with a poor risk management would get someone's margin-call eventually. Most people think probability is the first thing to look in a winning profile and also is one of the keys to success in trading. They need to think again and think really hard this time.

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} gambling is risking anything of value for gains, w/o a certain outcome
I agree with this statement; however, trading and Las Vegas are fundamentally different in principle except they both need a probabilities to win. They should not be compare equally in a very general term.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #963,462
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:27pm Feb 24, 2015 1:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap, pretty much agree. After today short term fundamentals are cleared, technically there is nothing to do today but wait until pans out. As i mentioned in a previous post, we may get the low of the month at the dead end of the week.... ES (equities) are fighting really hard to hold the last mini break but after the FED its the first time in over a month that they are starting to look very tired and the closing bell may bring an early trigger for tomorrow that will carry the move to currencies via dollar .... Lets see how it goes... sisse...
even with the euro dropping. i bet there will be some good equity trades.. with all that freed cash needed to prevent deflation
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #963,463
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:28pm Feb 24, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting tomas.v
{quote} It is interesting how it will be evaluated, I expect that Germany will try to convince others finally to accept this deal, but I may be wrong

If the Euro Zone countries do not approve the reform and the bail out extension that will make Greece risk of default.


A Greek default would have a more immediate effect. First, Greek banks , already on the brink of bankrupt. Next, losses would threaten the solvency of other European banks, particularly in Germany and France. Even worse, the ECB which holds a lot of Greek and other sovereign debt.


Foreign owners of Greek debt would suffer debilitating losses, and some banks may even go bankrupt. Interest rates on other indebted countries, such as Italy or Ireland, might go even higher as ratings agencies become concerned they will leave the euro also. The value of the euro itself would weaken, helping EU exports but creating higher prices for imports to the EU. Eventually, Greece would find itself back to where it is now, burdened under debt it can't repay.



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  • #963,464
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:30pm Feb 24, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} even with the euro dropping. i bet there will be some good equity trades.. with all that freed cash needed to prevent deflation
I was referring to profit taking short term in equities to carry dollar (and therefore euro) not sell off in equities to a downtrend leg....yeap Mid and Long term, equities are set to the moon ...until we blow in the next economic cycle in a few years ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #963,465
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:31pm Feb 24, 2015 1:31pm
Remaining strongly bearish if 1.1360 holds this session.. only a matter of time until we're seeing 1.11xx again
Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.
  • #963,466
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:32pm Feb 24, 2015 1:32pm
trading range keep getting narrower and the sideways trading is not broken yet. I hope we will see any progress soon.
  • #963,467
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:33pm Feb 24, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting TrendRider1
{quote} If the Euro Zone countries do not approve the reform and the bail out extension that will make Greece risk of default. A Greek default would have a more immediate effect. First, Greek banks , already on the brink of bankrupt. Next, losses would threaten the solvency of other European banks, particularly in Germany and France. Even worse, the ECB which holds a lot of Greek and other sovereign debt. Foreign owners of Greek debt would suffer debilitating losses, and some banks may even go bankrupt. Interest rates on other indebted countries,...
Yes, Germany and other counties will finally accept Greek program extension, it will add some more time to evaluate all risks and to be prepared for potential consequences. I don't think that other countries would leave euro-zone if Greece did.
  • #963,468
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:36pm Feb 24, 2015 1:36pm
1.1339... thats it... This is now the pegged rate of EURUSD
  • #963,469
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:38pm Feb 24, 2015 1:38pm
UCAD is no brainer short i think, i have missed my entry on level something less than 10 pips. WIll look tomorrow for pullback short, target is h4 demand, but likely lower than that.
http://prntscr.com/69csce
  • #963,470
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:39pm Feb 24, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting tomas.v
{quote} Yes, Germany and other counties will finally accept Greek program extension, it will add some more time to evaluate all risks and be prepared for potential consequences. I don't think that other countries would leave euro-zone if Greece did.
On this note, my thesis has been that the FED will be opportunistic and NOT intervene their way back to policy normalization in anticipation of a controlled situation in Europe. That way for once the U.S can actually compete for flows. USD to me has a lot of Euro fear built up. Hence why I commented on an article that it didn't surprise me that Syriza would accept the bailout terms their predecessor so sheepishly accepted. And they'll just save face. Tis the way I've known these things work.
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #963,471
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:40pm Feb 24, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting mkvy
1.1339... thats it... This is now the pegged rate of EURUSD
Sure seems that way
Vision without action is a daydream. Action without vision is a nightmare.
  • #963,472
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:41pm Feb 24, 2015 1:41pm
and back down again to 1.1339
  • #963,473
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:42pm Feb 24, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} What is a certain outcome looks like? do you mean 100%? or 99%? 100% and 99% is fundamentally different. Unless you are the god, I don't see a way you would obtain the 100% certainty. You might be over 95% right, but getting the rest 5% in your favorite is impossible. Combine this 5% with a poor risk management would get someone's margin-call eventually. Most people think probability is the first thing to look in a winning profile and also is one of the keys to success in trading. They need to think again and think really hard this time....
if it makes one feel better.. but other then the vehicle used. trading and gambling are the same thing. the outcome is never certain. of course skill should come with both over time. a card-player gains skill with experience as should a trader. morally some have a problem with the term "gambling" over "trading" ( in the form of trading like we do). then again, lying to ones self should be a moral question answered honestly too. dependent on that answer, is dependent on the honesty of the individual. if one cant be honest with themselves, whats the point.

those %'s u mentioned, are called odds to a gambler
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #963,474
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:44pm Feb 24, 2015 1:44pm
UsdCad
Daily sell signal confirmed at 23.02.2015
H4 sell signal confirmed at 23.02.2015 - 12:00 (+2:00 hours GMT)
Weekly - "undersold" condition
Monathly - heavily "undersold" condition
(not in position - I'm only trading EurUsd)

Edit:
Not a short advise! This train has already leaved the station...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #963,475
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:45pm Feb 24, 2015 1:45pm
its been 1.1339 at least 46 times in the last 3 weeks just by counting the h4 candles, so there we have it... ZERO SUM GAME! one could make more money collecting bottle tops
  • #963,476
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:46pm Feb 24, 2015 1:46pm
Quoting hathor
UsdCad Daily sell signal confirmed at 23.02.2015 H4 sell signal confirmed at 23.02.2015 - 12:00 (+2:00 hours GMT) Weekly - "undersold" condition Monathly - heavily "undersold" condition
Took me about 9 losers to finally get my seat to feel just right on this short. Of course..it could always take me a 10th xD
The coincidental success is more dangerous than the expected failure
  • #963,477
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:48pm Feb 24, 2015 1:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when u can trade with a certain outcome, its no longer gambling.
how can you trade with a certain outcome? a system that you develop is based on past data. so you find a pattern and decide to trade on it. but the outcome will be the same only if the situation from the past (observation period) will stay the same.

how sure can you be that tomorrow will be the same than yesterday? probably 50 %

and on the other hand, according to the central limit theorem, all random events will in long term get to a ratio of 50 %. for example a coin flip. maybe an event that you noticed in the past that had a success ration of more than 50 % was just a deviation from this and will in future move towards the 50 %. therefore your strategy will get worse every day...

except! if you say that the markets are rigged and, therefore, not random

not here to provoke anyone, just thinking out loud
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #963,478
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:53pm Feb 24, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting leeon
{quote} how can you trade with a certain outcome? a system that you develop is based on past data. so you find a pattern and decide to trade on it. but the outcome will be the same only if the situation from the past (observation period) will stay the same. how sure can you be that tomorrow will be the same than yesterday? probably 50 % and on the other hand, according to the central limit theorem, all random events will in long term get to a ratio of 50 %. for example a coin flip. maybe an event that you noticed in the past that had a success...
i dont believe forex is gambling... with gambling you have a chance of winning.
  • #963,479
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:53pm Feb 24, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I was referring to profit taking short term in equities to carry dollar (and therefore euro) not sell off in equities to a downtrend leg....yeap Mid and Long term, equities are set to the moon ...until we blow in the next economic cycle in a few years ... sisse
japan w/o savers
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #963,480
  • Feb 24, 2015 1:56pm Feb 24, 2015 1:56pm
Quoting leeon
{quote} how can you trade with a certain outcome? a system that you develop is based on past data. so you find a pattern and decide to trade on it. but the outcome will be the same only if the situation from the past (observation period) will stay the same. how sure can you be that tomorrow will be the same than yesterday? probably 50 % and on the other hand, according to the central limit theorem, all random events will in long term get to a ratio of 50 %. for example a coin flip. maybe an event that you noticed in the past that had a success...
same question back at u? " how can you trade with a certain outcome? "
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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