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  • #962,981
  • Feb 23, 2015 12:56pm Feb 23, 2015 12:56pm
A very tiny and straight forward day in the euro. The big key story and mover of the day is OIL. First cracks in the OPEC starting to appear with the latest attempt to break down. Like in the 70s all except the Arab producers on the brick of collapse with oil at these levels (i.e Nigeria, Venezuela, Ecuador, etc).

Oil has carried dollar all day long, first with the failed attempt to break down ending with this last micro reaction a few minutes ago with reports on noisy and angry countries starting to complain and calling for a emergency OPEC meeting. That is one key push to watch to complete the dead cat bounce in oil ... For those not familiar with basic correlations, oil most often than not and in very broad and simplistic words will carry dollar with it...

On the euro, as expected euro starting to cough at 1.134x after London close ... tracking 1.131x for the roll...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #962,982
  • Feb 23, 2015 12:57pm Feb 23, 2015 12:57pm
Greeks are delaying submitting the proposal regarding reforms, they admitted that they will send it tomorrow. Maybe they count that Eurogroup will not have sufficient time for further negotiations, but it can be a very risky strategy
  • #962,983
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:08pm Feb 23, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} This is totally turnig into a scalper's market, I'm taking money off the table as soon as I see any ... this gotta mean only one thing, we're very near the end of the consolidation. Crude 200 ticks in the money , filled my tp @ 49.15...She's a fox that market...lovin' it.
Yes I should be scalping crude oil short too... but to me it's clear it's going to the lows so I'm keeping all current positions with target at lows. Euro I made some scalps today.... still holding short from Friday... breakdown lower coming soon IMO, but ya range is nauseating for sure. Going lower clearly higher probability in such a strong downtrend w/ 0 fundamentals changing.
  • #962,984
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:08pm Feb 23, 2015 1:08pm
Pending SHORTS
GU at 1.54950
GJ at 184.240
A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #962,985
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:08pm Feb 23, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} May be a good news paper ? in english.
I would check here: http://www.reuters.com/places/greece & here: http://www.amna.gr/english/ & here: http://www.hri.org/news/latest/

Newspapers are strongly biased and probably still on the payroll of the right wing:

http://www.ekathimerini.com/, http://www.tovima.gr/en/, http://www.hri.org/nodes/grmm.html (most are not translated)
  • #962,986
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:14pm Feb 23, 2015 1:14pm
nuff. half off on zero
other risk td last high at 1369
off for some
  • #962,987
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:18pm Feb 23, 2015 1:18pm
Interesting we haven't heard anything from Dubai yet considering oil...
  • #962,988
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:18pm Feb 23, 2015 1:18pm
Quoting sakisf
{quote} I would check here: http://www.reuters.com/places/greece & here: http://www.amna.gr/english/ & here: http://www.hri.org/news/latest/ Newspapers are strongly biased and probably still on the payroll of the right wing: http://www.ekathimerini.com/, http://www.tovima.gr/en/, http://www.hri.org/nodes/grmm.html (most are not translated)
Thanks Every where they are on the payroll of someone
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #962,989
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:34pm Feb 23, 2015 1:34pm
Quoting Dr.Zain
{quote} Let me know if WE people decide to suspend laptops and computers. These are also tools of evil.
It is bit difficult for me with my off screen name

Sol Marc
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #962,990
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:37pm Feb 23, 2015 1:37pm
thanks for all the well wishes....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #962,991
  • Edited Feb 24, 2015 2:18am Feb 23, 2015 1:49pm | Edited Feb 24, 2015 2:18am
Quoting Qqe
My last advice for today, cas' i got to go... 6 hours later, enter to short (just 2 or 3 bars then exit) at H4.
It has been 5 hours. Prepare to war (short).. Then exit after 2 or 3 bars from entering at H4.
  • #962,992
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:49pm Feb 23, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting sisse
A very tiny and straight forward day in the euro. The big key story and mover of the day is OIL. First cracks in the OPEC starting to appear with the latest attempt to break down. Like in the 70s all except the Arab producers on the brick of collapse with oil at these levels (i.e Nigeria, Venezuela, Ecuador, etc). Oil has carried dollar all day long, first with the failed attempt to break down ending with this last micro reaction a few minutes ago with reports on noisy and angry countries starting to complain and calling for a emergency OPEC meeting....
tech wise 94.86 is normal.. fundi wise, i dont think so. Saudis still want to bankrupt the Russians and the Iranians for meddling . Its to the Saudis advantage, and possibly survival. since other factions want to remove the kingdom. u.s. shale just a freebie of collateral damage production loss. several near targets.. chart shows 35.10 min.. 35.10 will be fighting norm.. most times a ping pong zone, like the uj is doing.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #962,993
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:52pm Feb 23, 2015 1:52pm
Quoting sakisf
{quote} I am not aware of any such site, at least in English. Sorry :/
Roger that
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #962,994
  • Feb 23, 2015 1:54pm Feb 23, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting sisse
A very tiny and straight forward day in the euro. The big key story and mover of the day is OIL. First cracks in the OPEC starting to appear with the latest attempt to break down. Like in the 70s all except the Arab producers on the brick of collapse with oil at these levels (i.e Nigeria, Venezuela, Ecuador, etc). Oil has carried dollar all day long, first with the failed attempt to break down ending with this last micro reaction a few minutes ago with reports on noisy and angry countries starting to complain and calling for a emergency OPEC meeting....
I smell the risk-off (?) comming - gold rushing towards it's bullish rejection area at 1189/86, Euro for it's bearish rejection at 1.1470's
69
  • #962,995
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:02pm Feb 23, 2015 2:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} tech wise 94.86? is normal.. fundi wise, i dont think so. Saudis still want to bankrupt the Russians and the Iranians for meddling . Its to the Saudis advantage, and possibly survival. since other factions want to remove the kingdom. u.s. shale just a freebie of collateral damage production loss. {image}
Definitely 94.8x is far fetching. I was looking at $68.xx / $72.xx area with the $48 handle holding the monthly roll. Fundamentally mid term I pretty much agree with you. Its all bearish for now.

However, from production to overstock inventories to speculators, everybody squeeze the hell out of oil the last few months and I think short term we may got a bounce back (with the technical dead cat bounce) until the sector digest the new playing field, and losers and winners realign themselves...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #962,996
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:04pm Feb 23, 2015 2:04pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Yes I should be scalping crude oil short too... but to me it's clear it's going to the lows so I'm keeping all current positions with target at lows. Euro I made some scalps today.... still holding short from Friday... breakdown lower coming soon IMO, but ya range is nauseating for sure. Going lower clearly higher probability in such a strong downtrend w/ 0 fundamentals changing.
Did you see that 142-tick spike to 50.55 on APR contracts.... ? ... man I'm telling ye ... just placing limits in retracement zones and .. bam...lottery jackpot it is in this jittery markets ... beats waiting & waiting for breakouts ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #962,997
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:05pm Feb 23, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Dont you mind there is no MS Excel there?
excel is for os x
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #962,998
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:11pm Feb 23, 2015 2:11pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I smell the risk-off (?) comming - gold rushing towards it's bullish rejection area at 1189/86, Euro for it's bearish rejection at 1.1470's
I personally wouldn't call it risk-off because we are not really playing risk at the moment but I do get and agree with your view. I still think the best area in the euro for the Greek confirmation blah blah is 1.116x not 1.127x meaning yes a leg down, and we'll make the low of the month at the dead end of the month...

The only ones still not playing ball are equities. ES is just testing last mini breakout point so i don't expect a selloff on todays close rather a compress chop zone first before a break down...without equities playing ball...there is no party for this leg in my books.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #962,999
  • Edited 2:40pm Feb 23, 2015 2:29pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Definitely 94.8x is far fetching. I was looking at $68.xx / $72.xx area with the $48 handle holding the monthly roll. Fundamentally mid term I pretty much agree with you. Its all bearish for now. However, from production to overstock inventories to speculators, everybody squeeze the hell out of oil the last few months and I think short term we may got a bounce back (with the technical dead cat bounce) until the sector digest the new playing field, and losers and winners realign themselves... sisse
the Saudis have more pain tolerance then anyone else. they alone know where their coffers stand. the price is already down. they can bleed the (isis), Iranians and Russians slowly further by keeping things the same. or destroy some governments quickly with a production increase.. i have no doubt the plan is pain for the Russians and the Iranians. after all, take their oil money, and they have less to cause M.E. mischief. i dont doubt the Saudis can inflict more pain. they just need to be careful, because the vacuum left behind may prove to be worse. desperate people can do desperate things (newer isis looking group).

this wouldn't be the first time the Saudis did this. it all happened in the eighties once before. back then is was the USSR and Iran pre Arab spring.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #963,000
  • Feb 23, 2015 2:37pm Feb 23, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the Saudis ....
Do you trade USDCAD?

Draw a fib from the very top to the very bottom and you may find something interesting right now
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