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  • #961,461
  • Feb 19, 2015 1:54am Feb 19, 2015 1:54am
Quoting gio.kele
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=525504 (My Trading Journal) {image}
  • #961,462
  • Feb 19, 2015 1:57am Feb 19, 2015 1:57am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Don't think your analysis of 'stop orders' is correct Price goes down to find buyers and it goes up to find sellers
Yes, just doesn't matter who buy or sell!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #961,463
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:02am Feb 19, 2015 2:02am
Hathor, if you don't mind me asking,

When you announce a Buy or Sell signal in the forum, are you using inside and outside bars on the 1hr and 4hr tf's..?

Thanks.

scouse.
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
  • #961,464
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:14am Feb 19, 2015 2:14am
Quoting scouse12345
Hathor, if you don't mind me asking, When you announce a Buy or Sell signal in the forum, are you using inside and outside bars on the 1hr and 4hr tf's..? Thanks. scouse.
Not exactly, but engulfing candles can definitely strengthen the signals.

I'm monitoring the
- demand & supply with technical analysis in mind (both direction)
- long/short ratio - speculative sentiment index
- In case of trading in the direction of the trend - wait to confirm it with a(n older) system based on specific moving average setup

The most important is the demand & supply in my opinion. Always try to say - you have to think like a market maker.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #961,465
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:16am Feb 19, 2015 2:16am
Cheers Hathor, now while i digest that lot.. Lets see this break 1420 resistance once and for all...
All My Opinions, Are Just That, My Opinion!!!
  • #961,466
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:20am Feb 19, 2015 2:20am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Ugh, no words for this pair as it stands. I entered that E/J swing trade yesteday (stupid entry at 136.05) and now we need a proper correction on the Nikkei. I anticipate it will take the BOJ to challenge the highs, so for now looking at a purely technical correction, very soon, or I'll be forced to close out. My other setup that I posted here was A/CA: I never got the chance to work a buffer intraday at 0.9725 for Aussie news so that's off the table.
Other trades on the books but getting back here: EJ 138.80 still holding for the swing play. If/when this week closes a bit below I'll breathe another sigh of relief and keep holding thumbs. Japanese equities still too strong and resilient (about to take out 06/07 highs) for comfort but Yen looks solid relatively anyway as Japan emerges from recession. The play will probably come from Euro weakness if anything. Either way, there was/is too much congestion below blocking a clean, quick swing to call this a particularly good idea for the medium term but I can't jump as long as the level holds.

Pound is on fire lately. A bit early to be thinking about a monthly close but so far it's above 1.54 without much drama; a monthly close above that number does mean a serious stop to its selloff vs the USD and puts it in the driving seat against most other currencies and BOE probably the second most hawkish major CB to track.

FED minutes were dovish but it's still basically a stalemate with "many" dovish FED members buying time on the back of downside risks to 2% inflation while "many" others are probably more assertive about tightening this year at the very least (probably more inclined to mid year than end.) I don't think it's a serious driver especially to play the Euro vs the Dollar medium term; at absolute worst 1.158 holds that report (and anything else within reasonable expectations.) Upcoming USD (inflation) data just becomes a little (alot) more important and relevant to track.

GL today everyone and congrats to the "contrarian" bulls.
  • #961,467
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:26am Feb 19, 2015 2:26am
Quoting pips4m3
{quote} Let's prove it shall we? Just went long at 1.14180. Bullish for the short term, at least the EU session. Stop at 1.1380.
TP at 1.14325. Going to play it safe and wait to short higher. The thing with weed is that it makes me paranoid.

Edit: Moved on to http://www.leafly.com/indica/granddaddy-purple
  • #961,468
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:29am Feb 19, 2015 2:29am
dont fight the tape
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #961,469
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:30am Feb 19, 2015 2:30am
Good Morning... Added short position was closed with SL last nite.. Only small so no matter. I see we are still in the range and well inside previous daily ISC.. Not a convincing flip point in sight thus far.. any way orders.. c/p
Offers 1.1445-50 1.1485 1.1500 (stops above) 1.1530 1.1550
Bids 1.1400 1.1385 1.1360 1.1345 1.1320 1.1300 1.1270-75 (stops below) 1.1240-50

Options expire:

  1. USDJPY 118.50 (USD 695m) 119.00 (USD 2.3bln) 119.40 (USD 400m) 120.00 (USD 1.2bln)
  2. EURUSD 1.1200 (EUR 2.1bln) 1.1250-60 (EUR 850m) 1.1350 (EUR 715m) 1.1400 (EUR 2bln)
  3. GBPUSD 1.5385-1.5400 (GBP 450m)
  4. USDCAD 1.2275-80 (USD 800m)
  5. AUDUSD 0.7750 (AUD 534m) 0.7775 (AUD 542m)
  6. NZDUSD 0.7500 (NZD 732m)

Sure most of you know this..but just in case...

  • #961,470
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:33am Feb 19, 2015 2:33am
chanced a short @ 1.1450 tight stop
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #961,471
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:33am Feb 19, 2015 2:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... In any case, we rolled .... as suspected 1.138x held the roll leavin bulls intraday alive for one more try. Slightly Bullish close intraday. All shorts hands uncovered at these levels, as long as 1.142x holds, 1.154x (with extension 1.161x) is marginally open but a intraday crack with Greece confirmation can easily trigger a test of strength and stops to the topside. No more room for anything for shorts is do or kill in the next couple sessions. sisse
As expected Europe riding the latest news from yesterday (the 3 movers were made after Europe went home...). A rather important European session from a technical point of view. A run above latest intraday highs in the opening range (1.145x) can trigger a first and very decent assault to stops on the highs that can extend as high as 1.154x (and even 1.161x if the run strong below stops).

Crunching time for bears in the euro this morning.

On the news front we have some new report coming on the ECB meeting notes. I don't know what to make of this as this is the first time ever they are publish but expecting lots of QE details and even some ideas about how deep is the deflation problem in the Eurozone (France keep the trend and undershoot inflation again this morning).

Sitting very tight here and just tracking how the bulls show in the opening range pans out....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #961,472
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:40am Feb 19, 2015 2:40am
2,1 bln EUR of 1.1400 exp today EURUSD
  • #961,473
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:42am Feb 19, 2015 2:42am
...parity anyone?
  • #961,474
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:43am Feb 19, 2015 2:43am
around 30 pips in drawdown atm, still not batting an eye.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #961,475
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:43am Feb 19, 2015 2:43am
Quoting MikiFX
...parity anyone?
  • #961,476
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:45am Feb 19, 2015 2:45am
Quoting fxtyrant
around 30 pips in drawdown atm, still not batting an eye.
soon we will see 1.1305

edit: i'm finally out of my longs. just started to get short
  • #961,477
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:50am Feb 19, 2015 2:50am
short @1,1445 TP 1,1380 SL open
  • #961,478
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:51am Feb 19, 2015 2:51am
Break of triangle confirmed 4hr..long... Looking to add shorts around the Major SR 11450 and 11498.
  • #961,479
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:53am Feb 19, 2015 2:53am
short (aggregated) @ 1.14203 (highest short - 1.14460)
tp 1.13330
sl till i run out of equity
  • #961,480
  • Feb 19, 2015 2:54am Feb 19, 2015 2:54am
Quoting USD-Bear
chanced a short @ 1.1450 tight stop
GL mate... main issue IMO is Greece final knee jerk reaction. Yesterday was quasi confirmed deal right before FOMC but today we will get the official confirmation of the extension loan blah blah ... problem is that bastards are riding the news so we could get a exhaustion final spike on news confirmation that can kill lots of shorts (except the major with deep pockets) ...

In tech words, 1.145x may be protected option wise until the NY cut so they will need to crack it v early this morning for any move down, but if Europe fails, the final spike can come right after expiration and it coould extend a lot higher (to the very highs) ....

I hope not ...but let see how this pan out...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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