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  • #961,261
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:28pm Feb 18, 2015 1:28pm
Quoting hathor
{quote}
nice.
  • #961,262
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:29pm Feb 18, 2015 1:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed it's a very dangerous game (in the US of course ... europe is still in coma). Bastards are completely addicted to free money. IMO, FED should sit tight and hike in Q2 before they create a junky but now they have the excuse of deflation starting to hit worldwide and its starting to filter in the US economy ... we'll see sisse {quote} Exactly ...

As I have been saying all year and will repeat again, we are not going to see a rate rise until Q2 2016, the FED is slowly agreeing with my way of thinking, they are a bit slow.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #961,263
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:30pm Feb 18, 2015 1:30pm
yes . everyone was expecting the fall of the euro . once again my golden cross was like a magnet
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  • #961,264
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:30pm Feb 18, 2015 1:30pm
Quoting Hkr-wck
little long from 1.1343 :-)
I like this :-)
Enter Signature
  • #961,265
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:31pm Feb 18, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting mxer4
my current trades TP:.1260 {image}
can you show me a screenshot now?
  • #961,266
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:31pm Feb 18, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} lest not forget the velocity of money with such sharp declining velocity of money the FED can print and print and they will still see deflation {image}
  • #961,267
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:32pm Feb 18, 2015 1:32pm
Gold short 1209.6 targeting 20 pips SL 1214.5
  • #961,268
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:33pm Feb 18, 2015 1:33pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} deflation already with us for months. panic is the other story. To add to this pie. Yes, global deflation is a mess. A story which FED watches constantly. As the main global player they wont hike so quick as some anticipate. And on the other side, of course europa QE should help. Deflation pressure would only put a strong mark on open ended scenario and not limited one. That could make real sector prices cry for mercy eventually. A slow death. Untill, birth? (not that smart).
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Well, at least analytics already moved this decision at least 2 sessions forward in US case(half a year ago), whereas in BOE we have a full collapse of initial policy direction. This month already finished with CB decisions so anticipated 18th moving close quickly for forward reading.
Only date was 18th as said. now we have some work to do and try to play this mid term. We need to focus on USD and EUR alone. Not that smart.
this time one was lucky
  • #961,269
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:37pm Feb 18, 2015 1:37pm
it will goes down guys .... its not even broken week top ...
  • #961,270
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:37pm Feb 18, 2015 1:37pm
And the price action ennui continues ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #961,271
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:38pm Feb 18, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Watch out Gator, if they manage to flip it today with the roll, we may get a lot higher ...not leaving too much room for positions ...never take the opposite side to a CB decision... let see how it goes until the close. sisse
Yo mate, imo is a nondecision. They said something very simmilar on January. Also - we would like to hike, but sry guys, we just cant do it now. I am gonna slowly read it through weekend, but now it looks like a non news overshoot.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #961,272
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:38pm Feb 18, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No secrets, either s/o in loss or profits lol It was prepared during Tokyo session EU stopped at Daily Open to the tick - probably more to come
What ya think about oil? Not going up on this dollar weakness.... figured it'd come down after yesterdays move, trying to find a spot to long
  • #961,273
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:39pm Feb 18, 2015 1:39pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Because, you have to look at the quality of jobs created. If the US goes ahead with what one can read, the whole workforce may be, at some point in time, all waiters and figaros........ Employment rate alone does mean nothing at all.....
You are not being fully objective with the US employment numbers mate. Creating 1 mill jobs in the last 3 months and nearly 10 mill in the last few years is a bit more than just random seasonal trend or a few Mcdonals jobs created. Moreover more than 1/3 of them are in professional services (which is a huge contrast with the UK for example in which 80% of the new jobs are "macdonals jobs").

Whatever way you calculate unemployment and with all the flaws you can find, reducing unemployment from nearly 11% to almost natural unemployment is MASSIVE, either in the US or in Zimbabwe...

I agree with you on the overdose of QE/ low rates that my end up crippling the economy i the long run if not corrected on time. However, the question is not that the US has recovered (because it HAS under any parameters) but that the FED cannot keep a monetary emergency policy active for such a long time without expecting permanent damage in the economy...

In any case, Euro flirting hard to flip it to the upside... whoever is sitting on 1.127x since the end of January it is going to make A KILLER play for the YEAR if they run to 1.16xx...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #961,274
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:40pm Feb 18, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting volatile
yes . everyone was expecting the fall of the euro . once again my golden cross was like a magnet {image}
What if... 70% of consolidation would equate to a continuation of trend? Would the magnet follow it down?
  • #961,275
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:42pm Feb 18, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} As I have been saying all year and will repeat again, we are not going to see a rate rise until Q2 2016, the FED is slowly agreeing with my way of thinking, they are a bit slow.

You are quite right indeed We will se QE 4
  • #961,276
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:43pm Feb 18, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed it's a very dangerous game (in the US of course ... europe is still in coma). Bastards are completely addicted to free money. IMO, FED should sit tight and hike in Q2 before they create a junky but now they have the excuse of deflation starting to hit worldwide and its starting to filter in the US economy ... we'll see sisse {quote} Exactly ...

as I see it:

the problem with the stock market is, that they are playing the inflationary game, while economy is on deflationary path

this will not end well
  • #961,277
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:44pm Feb 18, 2015 1:44pm
dollar index triangle should be coming to a breakout area in the coming days. look forward to bigger concrete movement on deciding upside or downside continuation.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #961,278
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:44pm Feb 18, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Longer terms. I did not check overnight repo rates for long time.
Gotcha. Will check the swap rates too ...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #961,279
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:44pm Feb 18, 2015 1:44pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} No secrets, either s/o in loss or profits lol It was prepared during Tokyo session EU stopped at Daily Open to the tick - probably more to come
Yes I think more to come on EU.. any targets on UJ short?
  • #961,280
  • Feb 18, 2015 1:45pm Feb 18, 2015 1:45pm
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} If the US would use the same standard as the EU for calculating CPI, we already have deflation in the US. The mainstream media there is just a mouthpiece.

completely agree
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