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  • #961,201
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:34pm Feb 18, 2015 12:34pm
Greece risk and Fed rate hike.
Is it possible we heading down towards the 1.0000 level?
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Let's discuss.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #961,202
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:35pm Feb 18, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Nope..even if there is a spike up during FOMC, should be reversed quick...but we will see in 30.
Hey man i havent been on here in a while but as always i enjoy reading your post! you always give a neutral perspective on things
  • #961,203
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:37pm Feb 18, 2015 12:37pm
IMHO eu gonna test 533 might me a good sell signal from there.
JUST GUESS
Never follow/blame others,Patience is the key skill for Succesfull trading.
  • #961,204
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:37pm Feb 18, 2015 12:37pm
my current trades


TP:.1260
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  • #961,205
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:39pm Feb 18, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting mxer4
my current trades TP:.1260 {image}
hmm you are in 9.5k profit? is it a demo account?
  • #961,206
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:42pm Feb 18, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting mxer4
{quote} Hey man i havent been on here in a while but as always i enjoy reading your post! you always give a neutral perspective on things
Oh, thanks, nice to see someone is actually reading my posts.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #961,207
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:44pm Feb 18, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Noone knows where the bottom is and even more people will invest in the eurosone. If Greek goes back to drakmer it will be so cheap as some think the currency will fall 50% overnight and then the investors are running to Greece. The russian will sell in Europe due to the low ruble while the british will buy again due to the strong pound Like the swiss not many transfer money to switzerland due to the high CHF but the swiss go to the eurosone to invest
good luck
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #961,208
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:45pm Feb 18, 2015 12:45pm
Quoting evrynet
{quote} hmm you are in 9.5k profit? is it a demo account?
If it was demo account it wouldnt be saying TRADING FOR REAL MONEy ith switch to demo account button at the bottom ey? I reckon...
  • #961,209
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:46pm Feb 18, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Oh, thanks, nice to see someone is actually reading my posts.
dude i always follow your post you just reminded me to subscribe
  • #961,210
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:47pm Feb 18, 2015 12:47pm
Is there anything that can stop the GU bull? I can see it going down to 5080 again...but its hard to find a good spot to short...maybe 5550-80?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #961,211
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:47pm Feb 18, 2015 12:47pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Noone knows where the bottom is and even more people will invest in the eurosone. If Greek goes back to drakmer it will be so cheap as some think the currency will fall 50% overnight and then the investors are running to Greece. The russian will sell in Europe due to the low ruble while the british will buy again due to the strong pound Like the swiss not many transfer money to switzerland due to the high CHF but the swiss go to the eurosone to invest
exactly.. but the odds are it wont happen while the ecb is printing and the usd set to raise. they are telling u this, its not a big secret
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #961,212
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:48pm Feb 18, 2015 12:48pm
Quoting mxer4
{quote} dude i always follow your post you just reminded me to subscribe
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #961,213
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:49pm Feb 18, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
Is there anything that can stop the GU bull? I can see it going down to 5080 again...but its hard to find a good spot to short...maybe 5550-80?
Wow man not to sure i would short that ATM . maybe a sell order would do though @1.5300
  • #961,214
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:50pm Feb 18, 2015 12:50pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} I just looked at USD/TRY chart and see that TRY depreciated 120% against USD from the lows of 1.1436 in U/T terms back in 2008 and USD making new monthly high (2.5154) as we speak. I think with FOMC slated to hike rates in not too distant future that will put further strain on many EM currencies such as TRY. Your thoughts?
I am expecting 2.879x as high than pullback.Depending on pullback than i will reevaluate levels. Problem is Erdogan puts a lot of political pressure on CB because of coming elections while he is away from government as an new elected president. So if CB can not make interest rate hike when Fed make move than we may get higher levels and things may get out of controls because of his pressure. Also expected Fed rate hike and election dates are coincide if Fed will make move at June. There are a lot of unknowns for now but we will certainly problems.
  • #961,215
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:52pm Feb 18, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting mxer4
{quote} Wow man not to sure i would short that ATM . maybe a sell order would do though @1.5300
Thats why I would like to short as high as possible...so in case it doesn't drop much and won't keep dropping, I can still get at least 100 pips, which is not much on GU. I would be worried by having pendings open, they might be hit and reversed quicker than an account can handle.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #961,216
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:52pm Feb 18, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting maldegnegi
{quote} We have a fascist man in charge who is even managing the central bank. He lately punished the central bank heads for not dropping the interest rates. He is beyond all logic and common sense. We have bigger problems than many think. With this goverment and Erdogan ruling, we are walking to our doom. What you are saying is actually true and dollar should appreciate vs all emerging market currencies and of course vs Turkish Lira. Ceteris paribus, but we have - again I have to mention- a fascist ruling the beautiful country.
That's a grim picture you're presenting for your country.Sorry to hear that, hope things turn out for the best for you guys.
But If, as you say, interest rates are kept artificially low, it would further exacerbate the already slanted risk differential. Which makes 3.5xx and above TRY to the USD not too far-fetched.
Speaking of interest rates, is the current 10% for overnight deposits or longer-term?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #961,217
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:53pm Feb 18, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} Europe gone home....There you got the fix so that's the level in play for the news and roll. All done for the mid session break. Movers expected for the US afternoon session. 1.127x naked. Pretty much air in between that key floor and 1.138x with the london fix as a line in the sand (flip area to use the same term )for the rest of day... sisse
Thanks sisse. I am watching now 1.1360 for session.
  • #961,218
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:54pm Feb 18, 2015 12:54pm
Here we go for the news.

Lots of noise from the Greek front pre FOMC. Greek Min Finance almost guaranteeing a deal (as widely expected) on Friday, plus leaks and more leaks with details irrelevant for trading as we only care about the fact confirmation of the deal....

Despite Greece BS, 1.138x key level to track after news and roll. Above and we will get the Greek confirmation final rally. On the other side 1.127x naked for a test with a potential extension to 1.123x with stops getting run with news. "Flip" zone is the London fix for the news.

For the actual flows. Only 2 plays.

Any hawkish arguments changes will trigger a decent rally in dollar and selloff (profit taking) in equities. Direct trade down so no option to ride it if you are not already in. However, the most probable scenario is that hawkish terms will be subdue because of the latest inflation numbers, leaving the same June/July for the first hike. Trade is fade the lows with London fix as trigger to test 1.138x and then let the Greek happy news do the rest until Friday ...

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #961,219
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:55pm Feb 18, 2015 12:55pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} good luck
Where are the investors putting their money at the moment in your opinion? I am not talking abouth putting the money in the euro but investing in the eurosone. We already see signs that this is happening. I am talking abouth slow improvements. We will se.

I am very bearish the euro still and have my positions for this from a long time ago
  • #961,220
  • Feb 18, 2015 12:56pm Feb 18, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Thats why I would like to short as high as possible...so in case it doesn't drop much and won't keep dropping, I can still get at least 100 pips, which is not much on GU. I would be worried by having pendings open, they might be hit and reversed quicker than an account can handle.
True that makes sense
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