News trading discussion - continuation

I would very much like to see more of someone else here. But to my great regret, I can not do this yet .....

News trading draws different opinions from Forex traders. Some believe that it is one of the best ways of engaging in the Forex market, while others view it as a very risky approach. I believe that both are right. With news trading, you do not have to study several trading indicators before opening your position. All you have to do is play with the market sentiment towards the upcoming news event. If you believe the news will be negative, then you go short on the affected currency, and vice-versa. However, the trick here is always about timing. Some traders wait until the news is out, which means they end up missing out on the opportunity. So if you are going to do news trading, then you must always be up on your heels for every market event.

Thursday
17:30
02/19/15
4 Comments
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Thursday
18:00
02/19/15
US crude oil and refined
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday February 18, 2015


At 4:30 the UK will release Claimant Count Change together with Rate and Asset Purchase Facility votes. I suggest to skip them untill they would be released alone to avoid conflicting data.

At 2:00 pm EDT the FOMC Meeting Minutes will provide some volatility. It may be a good oportunity to straddle if you want to scalp a few pips.

Good luck everybody!

Thursday
17:30
02/19/15
8 Comments
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Thursday
18:00
02/19/15
US crude oil and refined
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Friday
10:30
20/02/15
EU manufacturing PMI index Germany
(EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI), the EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Friday
11:30
20/02/15
18 Comments
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Friday
15:30
20/02/15
1 Comments
CA The core retail sales
(CA Core Retail Sales), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

EU manufacturing PMI index Germany
EU German Flash Manufacturing PMI

The strategy to break through the milestone of "50", which is a psychological indicator for the rest may not be interesting markets. Possible weak response. The indicator may be "not punctual."

GB Retail Sales

Minutes of the Bank of England remain neutral, the newly approved already present in the market expectations: the interest rate and APF program voted unanimously; reduction in inflation is temporary in nature; Bank of England keeps the focus dynamics of growth of wages.
And British wages throws hay bulls in this environment: the fact 2.1% vs. 1.7%, and the previous value of 1.7% (revised up to 1.8%). In this parallel is reduced by 0.1% unemployment rate (5.7%), and the number of applications for unemployment benefits over the past month and a positive outlook.
Dollar trading pair GBPUSD feels after FOMC minutes more "uncomfortable", as the person who published softer than anticipated protocols: global risks are taken into account and for the US economy, "premature rate increase" may adversely affect the dynamics of recovery, and some leaders The Fed is still concerned about low inflation.
There remains a need to watch the pair before the release, as the pound loves to devour a large part of the movement to release. Similar symptoms he may begin 15-30 minutes prior to publication.

CA Core Retail Sales


Canadians reduce interest rates, and they say this is not the limit. Good must accept any negative news for Canada, for example, the reduction in retail sales that will talk about the need for additional measures to stimulate the part of BC.
Retail sales rarely go detached, statistical evaluation of their effects are blurred.


Good luck everybody!

All a good weekend.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Detective story with the FOMC minutes

This week you could escape four important events: the labor market of Great Britain, protocols Fedreza, Greece and the RBA minutes. It is particularly interesting to observe the behavior Fedreza, who published "soft" protocols, but obviously, holding something behind his back.

UK labor market has increased, and the Bank of England "ignores" inflation

Tuesday we learned: the annual inflation remains very low and far from the 2% target, namely at the level of 0.3%, which is not new to the market, already very long ago by the Bank of England is information about the extremely low short-term inflation expectations.
Day later, the market was expecting another "pleasant" surprise the British - the dynamics of growth of wages was at an annual maximum of + 2.1% for the month, while the unemployment rate better than expected 5.7%, and the entire publication has been implicated in the background parallel to the publication of minutes of the Bank of England .
Protocols in a large volume of its neutral, but with a predominance in the direction of the hawks, despite the fact that he voted for a rate hike was not (as predicted), yet there are "two members of the Committee who have seen the reasons for higher rates this year" anonymous vote, but it seems there are basting, who are these two "committee member" (100% is McCafferty and Will). At the same time noted that the slowdown in the British economy at the end of 2014 was short-lived, and the current consumption "is growing steadily."
Some experts believe that the next step (do not read just like the "next tomorrow") to the Bank of England - a tightening of monetary policy in the form of a rate increase, but when the experts say so, think about the first half of 2016 because of the shift from the place of the Titans the Bank of England, requires much more serious attempts by the economy.
Inflation concerns remain, in the short term is not even denied by the probability of its negative value. It is not necessary to deny the general global "moments", and the craze central banks lower interest rates can not be ignored in the overall perspective. With the Bank of England and the stakes - it's still a while "rhetoric."

FOMC minutes released soft, but "soft" if his intentions?

First things first protocols were not quite so, and "solid" as to what the markets are accustomed to lately. Surprised the phrase "some Fed officials have been concerned in January in response to the rejection of the promise" to be patient. " That is, before, in the minutes of the Committee changed the phrase "Sonsiderable time» on «patient» Strong saw the market reaction to this iteration, and now he also notes that «financial markets might overreact» (the reaction was excessive). The Committee did not like it. Fact number one. After this fact, we can immediately assume that the members of the Committee are not yet ready to sharp movements, but, always, there is a "but."

Remember that immediately after the protocol, and in general to key events (NFP), and generally just at home recently, key person Fed his statements have begun to prepare the market to raise rates more intensively, the degree of pressure in this massage has increased, we even wrote a note Against this background, that "the Fed is spread gently." It is a fact number two. And it should touch up on our idea: Fedrez not refuse to raise rates, but at the same time, the Fed should have some time to play progressive soil drench for fruit, otherwise, if watered once all the pressure - tube simply not survive and seeds wash with soil.
To continue the discussion, "the Fed rate" can remember and China, which is mentioned in the protocols, and the "global view of the world" about which also recalls and concerns about low inflation, some members of the FOMC, and develop this theme further, farther and farther away, dragging blanket to the side "raise" in reverse "do not raise."
As you can see from the Fed act dull and muted clues to figure out which is akin to identify the killer from the first pages of detective fiction, but we now have somewhere for half of the novel.

Greece has reached a deadlock


It's all very simple, we do not knowingly wrote "Greece has reached an impasse," instead write "negotiations at an impasse," for Greece still can not decide whether it is "smart, whether she's beautiful." Many inspirational words were said to voters, but as something other than "gonorovyh letters in the EU" clear action program is not visible - and this can not oppress the markets, and the Euro as well.
Germany on Thursday rejected a request by Greece to continue the program of the EU funding of the country, but a "compromise between Greece and the Eurogroup likely" so believe in RBS.
It seems that we can expect some fat pig from the Greeks - that's their style.
We ought to think at all, and whether it is negative for the EU if Greece leaves the euro area? Less parasites, fewer problems ... And if you come, we again someone to feed?

Reserve Bank of Australia discussed the reduction of the rate in March

Reserve Bank of Australia for the first time since August 2013 resorted to a decrease in the rate: 2,5% Cash Rate turned into 2.25%, but apparently the story does not end there. Published Tuesday protocols to reveal to us the discussion RBA who thought "lower your bid in February or March," as we see, that was pressed well and lowered the rate in February with an official explanation "to support demand, since the weak inflation." Text minutes and discards the expectations to the second phase of a rate cut in March to later periods of 2015. While there is always a "while".

Monday
11:00
23/02/15
EU climate IFO Business
(EU German Ifo Business Climate), the EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Good luck everybody

Hello,

25.00 points in the first minute = 25 pip´s ???
10% probability trades???

Wednesday
3:45
25/02/15
CN manufacturing PMI index
(CN HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI), China, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:30
25/02/15
US oil and petroleum products (not included in the results)
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
20% probability trades.

Really nice chart, This Poundsteling really drop and it seems that its effect of big news.
In this moment, I'm always trade in Liteforex broker and some others.