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  • #960,241
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:41am Feb 16, 2015 12:41am
waitng to see if aussie bulls can hold off this mini bear attack going to be interesting battle may have to wait till tomorrow, for aud influence but there is also usd which could continue to show weakness enough to keep them going

going to try a we entry now 7776 sl below todays open zone
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  • #960,242
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:44am Feb 16, 2015 12:44am
movement up showing buyers on this fork and 61.8 fib retracement. projected to go to 1.1532 area then 1.1700 area notice fib expansion at 0, 1.382, and 200%
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  • #960,243
  • Feb 16, 2015 12:51am Feb 16, 2015 12:51am
Quoting KiwiTrada
waitng to see if aussie bulls can hold off this mini bear attack going to be interesting battle may have to wait till tomorrow, for aud influence but there is also usd which could continue to show weakness enough to keep them going going to try a we entry now 7776 sl below todays open zone
got entry 7778 sl 7769 risking 9pip
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #960,244
  • Feb 16, 2015 1:07am Feb 16, 2015 1:07am
Quoting KiwiTrada
waitng to see if aussie bulls can hold off this mini bear attack going to be interesting battle may have to wait till tomorrow, for aud influence but there is also usd which could continue to show weakness enough to keep them going going to try a we entry now 7776 sl below todays open zone

I'm one of the bears in this.
  • #960,245
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:06am Feb 16, 2015 2:06am
Quoting gabe32
{quote} I'm one of the bears in this.
fair call, many things in your favor, I am trading to my plan, I am crazy, looking for some reverse psychology if it should explode north shortly is not my fault
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #960,246
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:08am Feb 16, 2015 2:08am
bulls look weak given it being monday pumpday.... cant even reach 1.145?? lower high perhaps
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #960,247
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:12am Feb 16, 2015 2:12am
Just finished a 16 hour analysis of technical and fundamentals. Here is the conclusion: Euro will go either up or down.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #960,248
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:13am Feb 16, 2015 2:13am
Quoting Chicky
Just finished a 16 hour analysis of technical and fundamentals. Here is the conclusion: Euro will go either up or down.
But when?

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #960,249
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:15am Feb 16, 2015 2:15am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} But when?
This will require another 16 hours of analysis and I have no time for this.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #960,250
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:17am Feb 16, 2015 2:17am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This will require another 16 hours of analysis and I have no time for this.
Moving by tps to below 1.1350

ps. 1.1333
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #960,251
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:17am Feb 16, 2015 2:17am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This will require another 16 hours of analysis and I have no time for this.
  • #960,252
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:23am Feb 16, 2015 2:23am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Moving by tps to below 1.1350 ps. 1.1333
1.1333 tp.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #960,253
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:51am Feb 16, 2015 2:51am
Quoting Tsudo
{quote} Can someone explain this to me? What benefit is there to deliberately stop out retail traders? It's my understanding that retail traders make up such a small percent of the overall market, so what are they trying to accomplish by doing that? Or are they trying to make it so they can make 500 pips (assuming a return to 1.11) instead of 200/300 from the lower levels...in which case, why even worry about retailers? Do they want retailers to think the trend has reversed so there's someone to buy their shorts?...
If my answer to this highlighted question would be no, then I would be lying.
The largest part of institutional traders trade based on fundimentals with large sums of money. For instance, a guy with 200 million wants to invest to hedge over inflation, so he seeks a sales trader advice, who does fundi analysis, or, a hedge fund made a research that USD will gain 30% in prince in 3 years, so they want to take a long position. A lot of those trades take years and they are looking for a good place to enter a trade. When they enter, they need someone on the other side of the trade, because their position will move the price quiete a bit. What they do is fool retail traders, so they panic, enter the trade on last moment and they get a better entry.( If the summ is even bigger, they do it several times). They have to fool other institutional traders aswell, but it is 100x harder to fool a smart guy than average Joe, so they choose retail.
Their used methods to fool retails range from news, twitter, other social media, simple psychology, etc.
Ofc. there are brokers and banks who see their client's stops and profit small only based on them. Those are the large spikes you see at broken s/r levels.
  • #960,254
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:04am Feb 16, 2015 3:04am
Quoting Tsudo
{quote} Can someone explain this to me? What benefit is there to deliberately stop out retail traders? It's my understanding that retail traders make up such a small percent of the overall market, so what are they trying to accomplish by doing that? Or are they trying to make it so they can make 500 pips (assuming a return to 1.11) instead of 200/300 from the lower levels...in which case, why even worry about retailers? Do they want retailers to think the trend has reversed so there's someone to buy their shorts? I've just seen this sentiment posted...
Assume yourself as a mega fund with at least millions of dollars to trade. Think as if you are not an individual who has little capital and needs daily wages or want to multiply his/her account in a matter of days and months. Assume that you are under tremendous pressure to keep your risk checked and generate reasonable return. Assume that you have to put it in writing why you took the trade, what is the risk, what is the profit target, why you took that trade at this particular time, etc. This log once written cannot be altered or deleted and is available to the investors for their review to see if you did the right thing or stick to your plan.

Once you start thinking in this way, would feel the presence of traders that do not think alike. This feeling will answer your question.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #960,255
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:15am Feb 16, 2015 3:15am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Assume yourself as a mega fund with at least millions of dollars to trade. Think as if you are not an individual who has little capital and needs daily wages or want to multiply his/her account in a matter of days and months. Assume that you are under tremendous pressure to keep your risk checked and generate reasonable return. Assume that you have to put it in writing why you took the trade, what is the risk, what is the profit target, why you took that trade at this particular time, etc. This log once written cannot be altered or deleted...

My dream job is something like that lol, nicely said Chicky Btw, good morning everybody , hope alot of ppl get green light today
Consistency will bring everything...Be good.
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  • #960,256
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:29am Feb 16, 2015 3:29am
Quoting SkullCandy
{quote} My dream job is something like that lol, nicely said Chicky Btw, good morning everybody , hope alot of ppl get green light today
This is how my broker shows individual profit/loss percentages. Total that and compare with what I see on my account summary. My account summary shows unrealized loss of 0.05% which tallies with the dollar amount.

You have to keep your ass covered all the time from all sides.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #960,257
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:34am Feb 16, 2015 3:34am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} 1.1333 tp. {image}
Maybe a bit early, I would like to short a bit higher, but looking at your draw down it does not really look like any reason to worry about ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #960,258
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:42am Feb 16, 2015 3:42am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Maybe a bit early, I would like to short a bit higher, but looking at your draw down it does not really look like any reason to worry about ...
This is a test on practice account. On a live account, my position would have been 1/10th plus one more short at 1.1450 or near with tp where my first short is.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #960,259
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:53am Feb 16, 2015 3:53am
Euro hijacked by noise today and probably the next few days so no fundamentals or technicals in play until solved.

Only one thing to track: the second official Greek drama day in play with only 2 potential scenarios:

 

  1. The most probable and "90%" of the chances of panning out is a Greek resolution (or kicking the can, whatever once prefer). The alternatives are irrelevant either by a bridge deal or via a "technicality" (like out of the blue a budget surplus that will "avoid" hard conditions in the short term or bonds link to growth, etc). They can extend the drama as far as the 11th hour on the deadline day next week. The conclusion will be kicking the can down the road until the Greeks put themselves together and fix their internal macro and structural problems.
  2. The second alternative is panic via Grexit or related. The odds are tiny for that. It will require the Greeks shooting themselves in the foot or doing something very stupid in this week meetings. As long as they don't have a deal until the deadline, this scenario is not cleared yet but it will imply a panic leg across the board and a little more than panic (probably blood) for the poor Greeks when their banks goes busted and teachers, doctors and the bureaucracy don't receive their salaries next month...

In terms of trading, for the short term, a deal (whatever deal) is for a knee jerk reaction push high leg from the bulls sitting at 1.127x the last 3 weeks that can extend as high as 1.154x (and even a dozen ticks higher on a spike of strong bear stops sitting there to 1.161x) but the natural move will be to 1.145x/6x (almost completed).

With a no deal, will need to wait till the 11th hour at the end of February, a panic leg will not open new targets to the downside but it will accelerate momentum of the move. After the only line of bull defence 1.127x is taken, 1.116x is naked for the swing and main target to 1.103x than can extend to 1.079x in a matter of hours ...

Whatever the case euro will be on standby until the resolution. Only a panic leg will make Greece relevant mid term and for trading. Otherwise the Greek move will be irrelevant for market (euro) direction and targets and it will only affect via a small knee jerk reaction short term and/or the speed of the moves.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #960,260
  • Feb 16, 2015 3:53am Feb 16, 2015 3:53am
Greece stocks are failing rapidly lol
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