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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #55,961
  • Feb 13, 2015 7:10am Feb 13, 2015 7:10am
Quoting PoundTrader
longs are still in play {image}

only short from 120 30 120 119 80
  • #55,962
  • Feb 13, 2015 7:12am Feb 13, 2015 7:12am
http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/dancing-baby.jpgNo play http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/dancing-baby.jpg

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Trapped in small range not enough stops on both sides

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  • #55,963
  • Feb 13, 2015 7:21am Feb 13, 2015 7:21am
must admit that i had a temptation to exit shorts with very small profit when i saw it rising from low 118's to earlier 119's
looking at overall fx today it seems that commodities are striking back. not the best situation for USD and UJ with it. the only thing that worries me as a seller here are green markets and any possible super deal in a movie called greece vs EU which would spur big quantity of optimism which is a killer for the jap.currency. yeah, pessimism is good .
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #55,964
  • Feb 13, 2015 7:26am Feb 13, 2015 7:26am
When in doubt uncertainties; scalp - pack and run
  • #55,965
  • Feb 13, 2015 7:29am Feb 13, 2015 7:29am
Quoting Ken A
When in doubt uncertainties; scalp - pack and run
Agreed. Here's an addendum: when bias sees hesitation at a key support/resistance/fibonacci point, pack up and get ready to reload at a better price.

I woke up late and lost early 10 pips in profit because I didn't leave early, but it's better than losing another 10, 20 right now.
  • #55,966
  • Feb 13, 2015 7:40am Feb 13, 2015 7:40am
When in doubt..don't
- Benjamin Franklin

When in doubt..fuck
- Lt. Frank Slade ("Scent of a Woman")
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #55,967
  • Feb 13, 2015 8:41am Feb 13, 2015 8:41am
Quoting bikov
must admit that i had a temptation to exit shorts with very small profit when i saw it rising from low 118's to earlier 119's looking at overall fx today it seems that commodities are striking back. not the best situation for USD and UJ with it. the only thing that worries me as a seller here are green markets and any possible super deal in a movie called greece vs EU which would spur big quantity of optimism which is a killer for the jap.currency. yeah, pessimism is good .
Nice post. Sums it up . Commodities striking back and with S&P breaking highs, mighty dollar shakes the board.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,968
  • Feb 13, 2015 9:21am Feb 13, 2015 9:21am
There is a beautiful H&S in USD/JPY in the making. The right shoulder is busy forming. The first shoulder was at 119.20 with the neck at 118.40 and the right shoulder around 119.20 again and on it way to the neck again. The target is 80 pips below 118.40 at around 117.60 but can go lower to the 117's
  • #55,969
  • Feb 13, 2015 10:53am Feb 13, 2015 10:53am
Quoting CPvanWyk
There is a beautiful H&S in USD/JPY in the making. The right shoulder is busy forming. The first shoulder was at 119.20 with the neck at 118.40 and the right shoulder around 119.20 again and on it way to the neck again. The target is 80 pips below 118.40 at around 117.60 but can go lower to the 117's
Yes, H4 is it?
I now favor short.
my previous tp 119.2 and 119.5 did not get hit.
(119.2 was just almost hit).
If uj today is not going up, current weekly candle will close below last week candle's top, and will look like bearish pin bar or doji
sto daily start pointing down.
However need to wait today's close.

H & S may play well imho, just need to seek the entry.
  • #55,970
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:32am Feb 13, 2015 11:32am
S&P new high today and UJ not too much impressed.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #55,971
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:42am Feb 13, 2015 11:42am
Quoting bikov
S&P new high today and UJ not too much impressed.
Nikkei saw it too. Very choppy overall in my charts. Market seems digesting latest BS
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,972
  • Feb 13, 2015 11:51am Feb 13, 2015 11:51am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Nikkei saw it too. Very choppy overall in my charts. Market seems digesting latest BS

volatility in uptrend (a very long one) = possible distribution = be careful bulls
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #55,973
  • Feb 13, 2015 12:29pm Feb 13, 2015 12:29pm
the price drooping in orange box will be a good indication of sell thru the white target area...

most people are looking for that spot hope so...

However, price can go in either direction regardless of the picture..

good luck n happy weekend uj traders
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  • #55,974
  • Feb 15, 2015 9:27pm Feb 15, 2015 9:27pm
Looks like 118.50 will be supported.. bounce coming
  • #55,975
  • Feb 15, 2015 10:12pm Feb 15, 2015 10:12pm
try long ...
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Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #55,976
  • Feb 15, 2015 10:25pm Feb 15, 2015 10:25pm
I'm looking at a drop in prices to the 117.00-117.10 range (represents a 76ish pullback from termination of wave 1 of 5). If price goes below the price low on 2/4/15, then my count is incorrect. I also like this target because the current drop I need and the price quoted above also represents a 61.8 extension of a C wave when compared to the A wave that started the correction on 2/11/15 (wave B ended 2/13/15).

After my correction short is over, we're off to the races for a wave 3 of 5, then another correction for 4 of 5, and then a last push long for 5 of 5. You could be safe and trade this to a double top to the 12/8/14 high. Granted, you'll likely leave a good amount of $ on the table, but who cares when you made money up to the double top? Pivot and trade the other majors and forget about it.
  • #55,977
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:04am Feb 16, 2015 2:04am
Support defended if broken mor down 117 50 117 70
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  • #55,978
  • Feb 16, 2015 2:50am Feb 16, 2015 2:50am
I added long positions. That looks like an excellent second opportunity. Strong support.
  • #55,979
  • Feb 16, 2015 4:34am Feb 16, 2015 4:34am
Hello

Although the weekly and even the daily tells us that more shorts will be on the table to possibly test back @ 1.0975 over months to come, the current short term scenario ( 30 min) indicates a possible false break lower to return to or even surpass the 118.50 area north again. So - scalping long for a few first - before looking for entry south. Divergence.
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We Can
  • #55,980
  • Feb 16, 2015 5:43am Feb 16, 2015 5:43am
What was that!?
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"The Public Sucks" - George Carlin
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