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  • #959,901
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:07am Feb 13, 2015 3:07am
EURUSD
Moves above today's high will target 1.1540 at least in my view, that is .618 Minor extension ABCD visible on H4 on a move that could extend to 1.17 area but that would only happen next week.. So the first is the point to trade against. I am not able to place any charts but will do over the weekend.


USDJPY
Price completed .618 Ret H4 + WPP and should continue move up, moves below today's low invalidate this view and would not look very natural.
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  • #959,902
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:09am Feb 13, 2015 3:09am
Quoting hathor
Imagine the market condition, when shorts are waiting everywhere. Until ~1.2 there will be shorts at every (previous) highs. They are all reasonable levels to short due to good R:R, but this short oversupply is the fuel of the buyers. Everyone thinks Euro need to be cheaper, and when the horde realize that Eur is actually getting strength, it will make the retest of the lows/it will make new low. (Just my opinion.)
imagine that each time a short is closed, a long opens. a liquid cant be compressed.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #959,903
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:16am Feb 13, 2015 3:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} imagine that each time a short is closed, a long opens. a liquid cant be compressed.
Until there are no more longs than shorts (long:short ratio), there will be more short.
I mean it's true in the opposite way either: when you close a long a short is opened -> happens at previous highs, right? -> means short ratio will be much higher at highs -> continuing up move
f(z)=z2+c
  • #959,904
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:19am Feb 13, 2015 3:19am
This chart is looking at the longer term say 1 week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #959,905
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:20am Feb 13, 2015 3:20am
By the way it's Friday and Monday will be Show-time. So one side will be trapped in an ugly way today.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #959,906
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:21am Feb 13, 2015 3:21am
IMHO the market apparently playing at a big choppy range (1.1270-1.15) unable to decide a main direction mainly because they are waiting for the verdict for Greece finance aid program, which will be reveal by the end of this month.
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #959,907
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:24am Feb 13, 2015 3:24am
Quoting hathor
Imagine the market condition, when shorts are waiting everywhere. Until ~1.2 there will be shorts at every (previous) highs. They are all reasonable levels to short due to good R:R, but this short oversupply is the fuel of the buyers. Everyone thinks Euro need to be cheaper, and when the horde realize that Eur is actually getting strength, it will make the retest of the lows/it will make new low. (Just my opinion.)
For example: today the market goes up, while everyone is shorting, than on Monday Greece and EU will have a placatory sex, and when everybody starts to buy Eur, than it will retest the lows (because the good news are already priced in) and everybody will be pissed up.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #959,908
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:30am Feb 13, 2015 3:30am
Quoting hathor
{quote} For example: today the market goes up, while everyone is shorting, than on Monday Greece and EU will have a placatory sex, and when everybody starts to buy Eur, than it will retest the lows (because the good news are already priced in) and everybody will be pissed up.
  • #959,909
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:33am Feb 13, 2015 3:33am
Quoting Kofmaster
IMHO the market apparently playing at a big choppy range (1.1270-1.15) unable to decide a main direction mainly because they are waiting for the verdict for Greece finance aid program, which will be reveal by the end of this month.
And 1.1630 is a possible number for clearing stops. Therefore its a good short entry if it reach there.
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #959,910
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:34am Feb 13, 2015 3:34am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Until there are no more longs than shorts (long:short ratio), there will be more short. I mean it's true in the opposite way either: when you close a long a short is opened -> happens at previous highs, right? -> means short ratio will be much higher at highs -> continuing up move
the ratio is always = u cant have one w/o the other. just as many buyers as sellers at any time
what many post here are trying to do the opposite/counter of retail spot. when more retailers are heavy to one side, the theory is to do the opposite of what most retailers do. since the perception is most retailers fail. but the market in the way u worded it, is not reflective to an = buy/sell... someone is always taken the other side.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #959,911
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:44am Feb 13, 2015 3:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the ratio is always = u cant have one w/o the other. just as many buyers as sellers at any time what many post here are trying to do the opposite/counter of retail spot. when more retailers are heavy to one side, the theory is to do the opposite of what most retailers do. since the perception is most retailers fail. but the market in the way u worded it, is not reflective to an = buy/sell... someone is always taken the other side.
Yes, agree with your words, there are as many long as short. It's an opened community, so we don't buy each others orders here on FF. It's just a little piece of the whole cake. But it's a statistic of retailers and I can monitor what retailers do at levels. More than enough for me.
I'm not using it as a signal to enter a trade, exactly the opposite. If I have a signal, than the long:short ratio can confirm that. And all I have to do is seek for technical patterns in the confirmed direction.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #959,912
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:46am Feb 13, 2015 3:46am
Quoting hathor
{quote} For example: today the market goes up, while everyone is shorting, than on Monday Greece and EU will have a placatory sex, and when everybody starts to buy Eur, than it will retest the lows (because the good news are already priced in) and everybody will be pissed up.
quite the opposite I believe ,there is a lot of negativity priced right now in the EUR/USD pair ,we don't have QE started yet ,Not a clear picture when FED will start to normalize its policy ,on the other side we have a cease in UKRAINE ,a softened USA economy,a not so weak European economy ,as many of the analysts have predicted ,I have the notion that on Monday we will have a secure deal of EU and Greece ,all the last facts have been priced on the downsided of EUR/USD and we will see some resolution and a greater bounce soon
  • #959,913
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:48am Feb 13, 2015 3:48am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Yes, agree with your words, there are as many long as short. It's an opened community, so we don't buy each others orders here on FF. It's just a little piece of the whole cake. But it's a statistic of retailers and I can monitor what retailers do at levels. More than enough for me. I'm not using it as a signal to enter a trade, exactly the opposite. If I have a signal, than the long:short ratio just confirms that. And all I have to do is seek for technical patterns in the confirmed direction.
dont trust it 100%... most retailers were right at 39xx
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #959,914
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:51am Feb 13, 2015 3:51am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dont trust it 100%... most retailers were right at 39xx
Won't, thanks for the reminder.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #959,915
  • Feb 13, 2015 3:53am Feb 13, 2015 3:53am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} imagine that each time a short is closed, a long opens. a liquid cant be compressed.
I see you opened a short around these levels in EURUSD - is this a long term short (1.10x) or are you going to offload some in between (1.13x - 1.127x - 1.116x)?
  • #959,916
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:02am Feb 13, 2015 4:02am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} I see you opened a short around these levels in EURUSD - is this a long term short (1.10x) or are you going to offload some in between (1.13x - 1.127x - 1.116x)?
i cant say for sure.. i will try to hold.. but if looks bad, i will close. hopefully i will have some banked before. it has not even got below 1394 yet. its Friday, and its the one that can reverse a week, with a close. the day that counts
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #959,917
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:08am Feb 13, 2015 4:08am
gbp just below 5400 should be monitored, it made a LL after 2 top formation, atm 5398 ( drawback west view not a s/r) but air to 522x... 1/2 is 5320 ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #959,918
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:16am Feb 13, 2015 4:16am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} china and korea (Asia) are probably having their warehouses full have little reason to buy commodities atm... = reflection toward aud
the only thing atm making coin for me
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #959,919
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:20am Feb 13, 2015 4:20am
Quoting hathor
By the way it's Friday and Monday will be Show-time. So one side will be trapped in an ugly way today.
In a continued theme from this mornings quiet conditions, it is likely markets remain calm heading into the weekend due to caution into Mondays Eurogroup and Monday's US market close for Presidents Day however the release of US Uni of Michigan Sentiment and comments from mega-hawk Feds Fisher could all help drive short-term price action
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #959,920
  • Feb 13, 2015 4:21am Feb 13, 2015 4:21am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Until there are no more longs than shorts (long:short ratio), there will be more short. I mean it's true in the opposite way either: when you close a long a short is opened -> happens at previous highs, right? -> means short ratio will be much higher at highs -> continuing up move
IMO you are beating a dead horse with that concept ...

In any case, good german numbers and slightly better ones in general in the eurozone. For the rest of the session a test 1.139x looks unavoidable before NY seals the deal for the week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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