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  • #958,781
  • Feb 9, 2015 1:36pm Feb 9, 2015 1:36pm
Quoting egkid
{quote} this how i see US INDEX {image}
Interesting analysis, thank you.
  • #958,782
  • Feb 9, 2015 1:37pm Feb 9, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Good. This is the only way to make it a big fortune. If one takes 0.1% (1/10th of one percent) risk and equal reward per trade, takes 10 trades a day, 6 winners and 4 losers, can make 0.2% (2/10th of one percent), discount it another 0.1% for spread, interest, etc. Let's say 0.1% per day. In 20 trading days it comes to 2% per month or 24% per year. You can increase it to 50% per annum by taking 0.2% risk/reward per trade or increasing number of trades. Choice is yours. However, the best is not to set any limit for number of trades per day....
True words ... The managing risk is most important in forex then the profit
  • #958,783
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:03pm Feb 9, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Good. This is the only way to make it a big fortune. If one takes 0.1% (1/10th of one percent) risk and equal reward per trade, takes 10 trades a day, 6 winners and 4 losers, can make 0.2% (2/10th of one percent), discount it another 0.1% for spread, interest, etc. Let's say 0.1% per day. In 20 trading days it comes to 2% per month or 24% per year. You can increase it to 50% per annum by taking 0.2% risk/reward per trade or increasing number of trades. Choice is yours. However, the best is not to set any limit for number of trades per day....
I guess I need to save this post of yours Chicky. Thank you very much for your support. Small positions is especially important in my situation cause even if my direction is right, I face the reality of bad timing with my entries and find myself in unnecessary stresful situations.
  • #958,784
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:05pm Feb 9, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} a clean ass just makes the world seem brighter. i personally believe that a least 7 wars over the last 50 years were caused by constipation.. like Red Fox said, "you gotta wash your ass" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHnP__q8oUk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_rbG4weibc
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #958,785
  • Edited 2:40pm Feb 9, 2015 2:26pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes i got that 1.142x as a one of the logical places for the bounce but it has been used so many times since the last week that pretty much everybody has it in micro charts too..... meaning by experience that level may have risen with NFP especially because we already cracked up and down with strength. Too many minions have it in sight so we may turn around in something less clear in small intraday charts like the 1.138x area... Whatever the case, a tick above current intraday highs (1.135x) could be more than enough from[/highlight]...
agree, but just in case its not, and we now go back to 1312, and then print a new high after 1312. then above 1418 is 1439 ... a close today above 1332 will only help 1439 min, in the above possibility, and norm is not shy..


1314 may be enough.. atm low since high is 1317x
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #958,786
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:43pm Feb 9, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} agree, but just in case its not, and we now go back to 1312, and then print a new high after 1312. then above 1418 is 1439 ... a close today above 1332 will only help 1429 min, in the above possibility, and norm is not shy..
Yeap .... Without a last minute tweet from Greece we are pretty much set to roll around the current levels opening the micro leg 1.131x to 1.138x with extension 1.142x for the intraday play. Not a nice ride expected and not one I would ride intraday either but if confirmed will open an "unschedule" one more loading chance.

On the non technical side, euro pretty much has confirmed that the initial QE leg is finish and Dollar is starting to show first symptoms (lots of major players in the US are starting to complain about the strength of dollar)of a much need pullback across the board before continue a lot higher for the FED hike later this year. Related markets are on the brink of a decent profit taking and oil is also pushing for a deeper pullback in Dollar.

As I mentioned in the morning, markets (euro and equities specially) are aligning for a last panic leg (more probably with Greece) in the current larger swing before starting a more decent and technical pullback.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #958,787
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:48pm Feb 9, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} agree, but just in case its not, and we now go back to 1312, and then print a new high after 1312. then above 1418 is 1439 ... a close today above 1332 will only help 1439 min, in the above possibility, and norm is not shy.. 1314 may be enough.. atm low since high is 1317x {image}
i thought i could relax.. and just wait for 1418.. sometimes it dont make it.. most times it does. odds decrease for 1439 if 1312/14 is not touched.. if 1412 is not touched then 1418 may be enough.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #958,788
  • Feb 9, 2015 2:57pm Feb 9, 2015 2:57pm
Quoting goldfinch
Just about ready for a run up to 1420.

We moved up, just not to the level I wanted (yet) nobody wants to get a run going, everyone is sitting on the fence watching the Merkel-Tsipras puppet show.

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And on that bombshell, have a lovely evening.............
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #958,789
  • Edited 5:59pm Feb 9, 2015 3:05pm | Edited 5:59pm
Could be sell at 1.1343 ish......for 1.1230 and lower........
  • #958,790
  • Feb 9, 2015 3:10pm Feb 9, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap .... Without a last minute tweet from Greece we are pretty much set to roll around the current levels opening the micro leg 1.131x to 1.138x with extension 1.142x for the intraday play. Not a nice ride expected and not one I would ride intraday either but if confirmed will open an "unschedule" one more loading chance. On the non technical side, euro pretty much has confirmed that the initial QE leg is finish and Dollar is starting to show first symptoms (lots of major players in the US are starting to complain about the strength of...
they can complain all they want, nothing will stop this world reset. people complained when manufacturing jobs left, and Walmart just got bigger. people investing in buggy whips are mostly non existent.. the same fate is left to the ones crying about the new world reset. energy is a game changer, and the ones that refuse to trade accordingly will gain less then they could have. it can be cursed and ignored, but that nor stopping it.
if a farmer plants wheat while the world has a abundance wheat. whose fault is that? and why should it even make it to the feds door... there too many cry baby, free market guys who now want the government to step in, when its to their advantage.. and when it concerns others is always government hands off is best. its a 40 year reset and what was true is less true in this new industrial revolution. its just going to take some time .
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #958,791
  • Feb 9, 2015 3:18pm Feb 9, 2015 3:18pm
coming close like i said IF IT CLOSES BELOW 1.13155 stop the dream dreaming of going long and follow the money
  • #958,792
  • Feb 9, 2015 3:23pm Feb 9, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i thought i could relax.. and just wait for 1418.. sometimes it dont make it.. most times it does. odds decrease for 1439 if 1312/14 is not touched.. if 1412 is not touched then 1418 may be enough. {image}
what if it start range?...the tuesday/wed calendar is poor...
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #958,793
  • Feb 9, 2015 3:31pm Feb 9, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} they can complain all they want, nothing will stop this world reset. people complained when manufacturing jobs left, and Walmart just got bigger. people investing in buggy whips are mostly non existent.. the same fate is left to the ones crying about the new world reset. energy is a game changer, and the ones that refuse to trade accordingly will gain less then they could have. it can be cursed and ignored, but that nor stopping it. if a farmer plants wheat while the world has a abundance wheat. whose fault is that? and why should it even...
As firm believer in free markets, I agree that markets forces most of time [if not always in the long run] prevail over politicians and bureaucrats. However, its hard to dismiss the power of business lobbing groups in the modern world. The amount of short/mid term money involved are way too big and powerful .... they will always have an influence in policies and politics.

Probably the bastards and interested business lobbies and CEO's already (as usual) settle the deal for the year when sitting in Davos over a bottle of Chateau Lafite a couple of weeks ago...

Point being is, even the most inefficient industries in the world that should be gone long ago like for example the US Car industry got save their ass by politics and key lobbying groups ... from a strictly market perspective we know they are doom as doom as farming was when the industrial revolution started in the develop world but still survive ....

Markets usually prevail but the powerful interference create very long short-circuits and strange inefficient mutations in markets like the CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) in Europe or the endless list of subsidized sectors across the develop world ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #958,794
  • Feb 9, 2015 3:34pm Feb 9, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} what if it start range?...the tuesday/wed calendar is poor... {image}
calender is not something i can control. numbers posted are not concerned with the calender.. news spikes can go either way.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #958,795
  • Feb 9, 2015 3:39pm Feb 9, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} the smarter corporates have long moved their exportation of goods and services to manufacturing abroad and selling in those domestic markets instead of producing in US and export it across boarders
I hear you loud and clear and I'm becoming a central bank convert. For a counterpoint, what about these?

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  • #958,796
  • Feb 9, 2015 3:57pm Feb 9, 2015 3:57pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} As firm believer in free markets, I agree that markets forces most of time [if not always in the long run] prevail over politicians and bureaucrats. However, its hard to dismiss the power of business lobbing groups in the modern world. The amount of short/mid term money involved are way too big and powerful .... they will always have an influence in policies and politics. Probably the bastards and interested business lobbies and CEO's already (as usual) settle the deal for the year when sitting in Davos over a bottle of Chateau Lafite a...
check out Boeing orders.. the transformation of bauxite to aluminum is one/the of the most energy intensive industries. cat suffers while Boeing is doing very well..

as for as the car industry, saving it was/is some of the best money ever spent. after all, gutting ones industrial readiness is just plain stupid in a national defense view. part of the reason German is not the overall dominate ez language is the car companies/workers . a view few of the politicians looking for camera time will quote..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #958,797
  • Feb 9, 2015 4:04pm Feb 9, 2015 4:04pm
sissi that close was below what bulls wanted.. so maybe it made the high already.. i still cant go against norm ... i have 1/4 load left... waiting for 1418 or? to load
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #958,798
  • Feb 9, 2015 4:07pm Feb 9, 2015 4:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} check out Boeing orders.. ..
...but strangely (or maybe not) airbus is also kicking ass and probably even better than Boing...point is the impact of such changes is not that linear and and nation border specific ...

In any case, a fairly bearish roll in the context of the main leg. Intraday rolling in chop zone, for the record 8 of the last 10 closes in the same area. Nothing new in the euro that hasn't been mentioned before ...

Quoting gatorinla
sissi that close was below what bulls wanted.. so maybe it made the high already.. i still cant go against norm ... i have 1/4 load left... waiting for 1418 or? to load
...i read this while writing the last one... fairly bearish roll... 1.138x is still open while 1.131x holds. 1.142x slightly open....minions trading mate... this is not an interesting area except for getting a headache until the main levels are solved ...not even bother checking so close to the market at these levels


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #958,799
  • Feb 9, 2015 4:38pm Feb 9, 2015 4:38pm
Quoting maldegnegi
{quote} I guess I need to save this post of yours Chicky. Thank you very much for your support. Small positions is especially important in my situation cause even if my direction is right, I face the reality of bad timing with my entries and find myself in unnecessary stresful situations.
Please note that there maybe a time-leg between you take a trade and when this trade concludes. Taking 10 trades a day does not mean all these trades will conclude the same day and you will see profit or loss on these trades at the end of the day. The point is to identify a trade set up, enter with tp and sl. It doesn't matter how far are the tps and sls but the position should produce your desired % of profit or loss regardless of these number of pips.

I play safe and try to maintain a portfolio that counters each position on the same or some other pair so that if market suddenly goes in one direction, both my profits and losses remain reasonably stable. For example if one position aims at 50 pip profit or loss, its counter position may seek 400 pip profit or loss. But as soon as the 50 pip trade concludes, my 400 pip trade on same or some other pair becomes naked and again need doing something to balance the portfolio. No matter how hard you work in keeping your portfolio balanced, it will always have a risk that most open trades could go against you, so be prepared for this. This is not some kind of hedging, but a tactic to minimize the risk based on risk management principle "Diversification of Risk". It is better to be safe than sorry and please do not believe in crazy return no matter whoever claims such returns, they are never permanent.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #958,800
  • Feb 9, 2015 4:40pm Feb 9, 2015 4:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...but strangely (or maybe not) airbus is also kicking ass and probably even better than Boing...point is the impact of such changes is not that linear and and nation border specific ... In any case, a fairly bearish roll in the context of the main leg. Intraday rolling in chop zone, for the record 8 of the last 10 closes in the same area. Nothing new in the euro that hasn't been mentioned before ... {quote} ...i read this while writing the last one... fairly bearish roll... 1.138x is still open while 1.131x holds. 1.142x slightly open....minions...
on the same page with close. hopefully Greece will fart and give a spike for a entry.. i wanted 1312 but now if that happens bears have a lying st target at 1303. still going with 1418 norm for entry and with a hh 1439 is in the scope, just depends on path.. 1418 happens before 1073 mostly.. 1279 held the day and 1209.. i still have a shot
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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