NFP Results.... | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

NFP trading idea 5 replies

What's the diff b/t ADP NFP and NFP? 14 replies

NFP Update 8 replies

NFP Strategy 16 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: NFP Results....
Exit Attachments

NFP Results....

  • #61
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:00pm Aug 4, 2006 4:00pm
Quoting hunter101
Its the NFR, everyone makes money (besides brokers and some TA peeps). Im still playing with economic reports in my demo, but i will be up with teh big boys soon!

My question is to the guy who doubts new trading, what do you trade, TA? Do you make money off of TA? Trading the news is profitable, because you better understand the market and you see it in a different light, such as not gambling and looking at past trends. I have been studyin for a few months of News trading and well.. I am profitable in my demo, besides losing half of the account when i was using TA, news trading (FA) has increased it!

GL to everyone, hoep to more peeps soon.

-J
Hunter,

Thanks for you post. I respect your comments.

However, I want to be very clear that I STILL think that many people get in to trouble trading news. Just because news comes out does NOT guarantee the type of movement that we saw today. There have been PLENTY of examples of news causing a 100-200 pip upswing only to come crashing down 10 minutes later.

The key to news trading can actually be quite technical. If you look for key resistance/support, news can help create the thrust required to break or bounce (usually break, in my opinion).

Don't be fooled into thinking that every NFP will be so clear cut. This was by FAR one of the easiest days on the news trading front. On days where it's not so clear cut, you get a lot of people complaining about their brokers, and how their spreads were too wide, or they couldn't get out of a trade, or they got stop hunted or what not.

It's part of the game...NFP could easily have been 250K jobs...and then what? would the Fed raise or pause? the sort of confusion would have created a bit of a whipsaw...one that would have been much more difficult to trade.

What made today so simple was because the Fed has been pressured to stop, and all the external factors pointing to the greater good of pausing versus raising fell into perfect equilibrium.

News really has to get you in the "mood" so to speak. If you don't get a feel for the correct mood of the market, news trading will be quite impossible.

Newbies, bewarned...days like this do not come with every news release, let alone every NFP release...you absolutely have to be wary of BOTH the technicals and the fundamentals.
  • #62
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:01pm Aug 4, 2006 4:01pm
Quoting jarroo
Netted 63 pips on the Cable today (2 lots). I guess that was a weak attempt at sarcasm.

I sure you think your analysis was why the cable went up.
I try not to predict the market I try to move with it.

Jim
So did you go LONG or SHORT to make your 63?

Personally, I think Money's analysis agreed nicely with mine yesterday...I don't think we were predicting as much as we were explaining how we felt about the mood of the market. In that sense, we DID move with the market...and the market was telling us that "in order for us to turn around, we'd need killer numbers because while inflation exists, it probably isn't as bad as killing the economy by raising interest rates". Jimmy, the only difference is WHEN we decide to move with the market. I think the technicals yesterday were supported quite nicely by the fundamentals, and the reactionary move was quite technical in nature (breaking through long-term resistance, etc).

Who knows, maybe next week the Fed will STILL raise the interest rates...that would send this puppy back down a bit.
  • #63
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:06pm Aug 4, 2006 4:06pm
HI mrmikal,

Wasn't the original poster yesterday on the prediction "theroller" ?

Scott


Quoting mrmikal
So did you go LONG or SHORT to make your 63?
  • #64
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:08pm Aug 4, 2006 4:08pm
Quoting smjones
HI mrmikal,

Wasn't the original poster yesterday on the prediction "theroller" ?

Scott
Actually, I don't know if it was him...I want to say it was a Japanese sounding name (ending in "ashi" or something like that) because he mentioned that his English was poor...

fukinagashi...right?
  • #65
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:14pm Aug 4, 2006 4:14pm
Quoting hunter101
Its the NFR, everyone makes money (besides brokers and some TA peeps). Im still playing with economic reports in my demo, but i will be up with teh big boys soon!

My question is to the guy who doubts new trading, what do you trade, TA? Do you make money off of TA? Trading the news is profitable, because you better understand the market and you see it in a different light, such as not gambling and looking at past trends. I have been studyin for a few months of News trading and well.. I am profitable in my demo, besides losing half of the account when i was using TA, news trading (FA) has increased it!

GL to everyone, hoep to more peeps soon.

-J
T/A just lets me know where price is, and isnt able to forecast up or down.

I use multi-function database to trade!!!

I also made $8000 before news release. :

I open my account in the bank, and the capital is around 1.5 Million.

I have been trading forex for 20 years.

Wish you all trading safer!!!
  • #66
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:18pm Aug 4, 2006 4:18pm
Bought at 1.8931 and set a trailing stop and then stopped out at 1.9029 for a sweet 98 pip profit in less than 15 minutes.

Wow! Since I learned to start cutting my losses faster I love forex!!!

Squid
  • #67
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:18pm Aug 4, 2006 4:18pm
Quoting mrmikal
Money,

Bro, I knew you were gonna be gloating today :-) we called this thing on target yesterday in that thread (that was deleted due to the server upgrade)...I figured you'd want to crack that smile and spread some crow...lol

..........
What I want to know is the guy who started the thread, he was the one who initially called it, I want to know what his predictions will be for next month...and the see if I agree with him.

Good job...and if that dude who wrote the initial post yesterday...PLEASE PM me...I'd like to toss some ideas around with you.

Anyone go short right before NFP? There were a bunch of guys yesterday in that thread that wanted to hold short.
I should have dude's name that started the thread; let me get back to ya. But guess what? Based on the political theory, I called this before July's PPI, right here in FF.

Bunch of guys claimed they were going short!! Imagine that, including good ole' Jim. Had the nerve to quote me and then use my quote as the basis of an opposite position.

Great work and thanks for the input. On to the FOMseeeeeee.......
  • #68
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:22pm Aug 4, 2006 4:22pm
Quoting mrmikal
Actually, I don't know if it was him...I want to say it was a Japanese sounding name (ending in "ashi" or something like that) because he mentioned that his English was poor...

fukinagashi...right?
Here it is, in relevant part:
****************************************
NFP Prediction
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?postid=80487#post80487
Posted
by: fukinagashi
On: Yesterday 17:09

Please bear my admitedly bad english:

I have developed a sort of modell for NFP trades. It bases largely on
macro-oeconomics, pattern similarities and some intuitoions (since
admitedly the smaple size is small).

The last 2 NFPs I predicted correct, but I did trade them only demo.

This time and the next times I will publish my prediction and trade
them.

PLEASE BE WARNED AT THIS MOMENT: THIS IS AN EXPERIMENT. I DO ADVISE YOU
NOT TO TRADE ON MY PREDICTIONS. FOLLOWING MY SUGGESTIONS CAN MAKE YOU
LOOSE AN AWFUL LOT OF MONEY.

The setup

I will trade at about 15:15 NFP. I will short or long GBP/USD. I will
neither set a Stoploss nor a Takeprofit.

I expect 80% correct prediction.

Why no Stoploss?

On the paper, stoplosses, trailing stops, straddles etc. look very
nice. Who ever actually trades real money, real life NFP knows that you
will end up in the worst possible secenarios (if you do not have a direct
Interbank connection :-) ).

So I accept 20% of wrong predictions without a Stoploss? Accountkiller?
No!

Look at the priceaction of each NFP and imagine you would have been on
the wrong side. I have yet to find the case, where I could not get out
with a very small loss or at break even within the next 1-2 weeks.

I will try to monitor The trade beginning from 15:30. I hope that I do
not need to close the trade in the hot time, but earlies after 1-2
hours.
************
  • #69
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:24pm Aug 4, 2006 4:24pm
Surely you do not mean the FOREX for 20 years. Maybe you mean CME futures? Scott



Quoting FlashJack
T/A just lets me know where price is, and isnt able to forecast up or down.

I use multi-function database to trade!!!

I also made $8000 before news release. :

I open my account in the bank, and the capital is around 1.5 Million.

I have been trading forex for 20 years.

Wish you all trading safer!!!
  • #70
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:28pm Aug 4, 2006 4:28pm
Quoting mrmikal
So did you go LONG or SHORT to make your 63?

Personally, I think Money's analysis agreed nicely with mine yesterday...I don't think we were predicting as much as we were explaining how we felt about the mood of the market. In that sense, we DID move with the market...and the market was telling us that "in order for us to turn around, we'd need killer numbers because while inflation exists, it probably isn't as bad as killing the economy by raising interest rates". Jimmy, the only difference is WHEN we decide to move with the market. I think the technicals yesterday were supported quite nicely by the fundamentals, and the reactionary move was quite technical in nature (breaking through long-term resistance, etc).

Who knows, maybe next week the Fed will STILL raise the interest rates...that would send this puppy back down a bit.
I agree with you that the Fundies and the TAs supported each other today,
but if that was the case all the time we'd all be rich. I like a good "Story" and/or "Idea" behind the way markets move. I played the breakout
of 1.9000 to make my pips, I'm sure many traders did as well.

That move over 1.9000 was a better "Idea" then the Fundies. IMHO


Quoting mrmikal
So did you go LONG or SHORT to make your 63?
Oh so that's how you use sarcasm . LOL


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #71
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:29pm Aug 4, 2006 4:29pm
Isnt the FOMC announcement now a forgone conclusion? I cannot imagine the market moving much on it..maybe move down (Buy the rumour sell the news).



Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Hey Hoss,

You gotta let us know where in the world you are. Send the jet and we'll party with you until the FOMC announcement!!!!

Way to knock em down.
  • #72
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:31pm Aug 4, 2006 4:31pm
Sounds like you are gambling to me. I wonder how you would have felt if things had went the other way?



Quoting natgo
the clock on my pc was wrong so i ended up being late placing my order, nevertheless i entered at 1.8975 exited 5 mins later at 1.9028. Increased my account by roughly 50% today! whoohoo!
  • #73
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:32pm Aug 4, 2006 4:32pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Here it is, in relevant part:
****************************************
NFP Prediction
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexforum/showthread.php?postid=80487#post80487
Posted
by: fukinagashi
On: Yesterday 17:09

************
MM, thanks for looking that up. I went to look up Fukinagashi in the member list and cannot find him I hope he posts again...

Have a pleasant weekend scott
  • #74
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:36pm Aug 4, 2006 4:36pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
I should have dude's name that started the thread; let me get back to ya. But guess what? Based on the political theory, I called this before July's PPI, right here in FF.

Bunch of guys claimed they were going short!! Imagine that, including good ole' Jim. Had the nerve to quote me and then use my quote as the basis of an opposite position.

Great work and thanks for the input. On to the FOMseeeeeee.......

Obviously, you missed the sarcasm in my statement.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #75
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:42pm Aug 4, 2006 4:42pm
Quoting jarroo
Netted 63 pips on the Cable today (2 lots). I guess that was a weak attempt at sarcasm.

I sure you think your analysis was why the cable went up.
I try not to predict the market I try to move with it.

Jim
Jim, good to hear from you!!!!

But you got it wrong on two counts:

(1) I'm not really predicting the market. I'm moreso looking at the consequential impact of politics on the market. Politics is big where I live; and

(2) It's not so much that cable went up as much as it is the government pushing economic reports supposedly supporting the idea of no inflation (when you exclude gas and food, just two main commodities most Americans use daily; makes no sense) in order to justify the August interest rate pause two months before elections. No inflation usually results in a weaker dollar, that's just econ 101. So any currency pair where dollar was cross had to go long.

In this scenario, there are no more rate rises for now...voters will be happy. Elections in November. Fed resumes increases probably in December?, latest February 2007, because in fact inflation is here, it is now and it's real.

The only question is whether the pause is now or is August too far away from November for the voting public's memory. My opinion is the rate hike is now, August BUT THAT'S JUST MY OPINION....

Please don't send my any nasty emails telling me "you said no more rate increases in August and I did (insert something idiotic)!!" That's not directed to you Jim but to anyone....

Do your own homework!!!!!
  • #76
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:48pm Aug 4, 2006 4:48pm
Quoting jarroo
Obviously, you missed the sarcasm in my statement.

Jim
ehhh...sarcasm is overrated :-) Besides, you can't really be subtle with sarcasm on a messageboard...you have to blunt...or it just doesn't come across well...lol

Besides, I know Money has been waiting to be vindicated, so he deserves some props. Fukin's call that prompted his analysis was inline with the expectations for today, and what I really liked was Fukin's confidence factor...his mood was 80% in favor of going long (I think that's what he said)...that was the mood I really felt this morning, that the market was looking to go long, but wondering up until the last second to see if the numbers came out to create some chaos, but once the numbers were inline with the expectation of mood, it was hard to keep the floodgates from opening WIDE.

I agree, technicals is usually how I like to play, but in all honesty, I do so much better when I can get the mood of the market AND then play technicals. Getting the mood is almost totally fundamental for me...some people like asparagus, after all...doesn't mean that it's a wrong way to approach trading.

I would have played the break of 1.9000 for a scalp...but I had already packed it in and headed into the office to make more seed money to finance my conquest.
  • #77
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:53pm Aug 4, 2006 4:53pm
Mr M, you have a real job? I thought trading is your life... Scott



Quoting mrmikal
ehhh...sarcasm is overrated :-) Besides, you can't really be subtle with sarcasm on a messageboard...you have to blunt...or it just doesn't come across well...lol

Besides, I know Money has been waiting to be vindicated, so he deserves some props. Fukin's call that prompted his analysis was inline with the expectations for today, and what I really liked was Fukin's confidence factor...his mood was 80% in favor of going long (I think that's what he said)...that was the mood I really felt this morning, that the market was looking to go long, but wondering up until the last second to see if the numbers came out to create some chaos, but once the numbers were inline with the expectation of mood, it was hard to keep the floodgates from opening WIDE.

I agree, technicals is usually how I like to play, but in all honesty, I do so much better when I can get the mood of the market AND then play technicals. Getting the mood is almost totally fundamental for me...some people like asparagus, after all...doesn't mean that it's a wrong way to approach trading.

I would have played the break of 1.9000 for a scalp...but I had already packed it in and headed into the office to make more seed money to finance my conquest.
  • #78
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:54pm Aug 4, 2006 4:54pm
Quoting jarroo
Obviously, you missed the sarcasm in my statement.

Jim
Well if you've been following other FF posts regarding news trading, and you were aware of recent changes in the practices of certain brokers, you could have been issuing a "cross signal".

If that's the case, then yes, it was way over my pay grade!!!!!

Please accept my sincere apologies (although I think others may have missed the sarcasm also).
  • #79
  • Aug 4, 2006 4:58pm Aug 4, 2006 4:58pm
Quoting Squid
Bought at 1.8931 and set a trailing stop and then stopped out at 1.9029 for a sweet 98 pip profit in less than 15 minutes.

Wow! Since I learned to start cutting my losses faster I love forex!!!

Squid
That's what I call sweet!!!
  • #80
  • Aug 4, 2006 5:00pm Aug 4, 2006 5:00pm
Quoting Ziggy43
I made 101 pips
Great way to end the week!!! Keep reading Forex Factory and you will sharpen your fab trading skills, no matter how long you've been trading.
0 traders viewing now