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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #72,321
  • Feb 6, 2015 4:54pm Feb 6, 2015 4:54pm
Quoting Delta1One
(some kinda seers friends of yours ? :-)
We just share same passion.

I am not a villain for shorting system down. Winter has to come, because system has been abused.

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,322
  • Feb 6, 2015 5:04pm Feb 6, 2015 5:04pm
Just for the fun of it: Euranalysis thread four or whatever years ago.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
As you can see, major cycles range between 1611 days and 1848 days. From this point of view it seems, last (third) destructive cycle started at 6.6.2010 and Euro is doomed. Ou yea, I am bearish, dont you forget!
6.6.2010 +1848 is about, hmmm, 06/2015. Thats about mumbo timing for last low.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,323
  • Feb 6, 2015 5:17pm Feb 6, 2015 5:17pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Just for the fun of it: Euranalysis thread four or whatever years ago. {quote} 6.6.2010 +1848 is about, hmmm, 06/2015. Thats about mumbo timing for last low.

I started getting fan cycles ..

good one TD
  • #72,324
  • Feb 6, 2015 5:34pm Feb 6, 2015 5:34pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} I started getting fan cycles .. good one TD
Great, join us in mumbo realm! Am right now having great fun. I wasnt paying real attention to this post of mine, as it wasnt trading post, but a cycle research. And there is a big difference between research and trading and my account sometimes feels the pain. I have mentioned many times that although cycle research produces quite good results when it comes to levels, timing is a great failure. Nevertheless, this particular research played out also well. Midcycle low was 07.2012. There is a big butt here. I miss one wave. Those should have been three. So now either cycle is delayed, or waves 2 and 3 somehow joined and timing of 05/2015 is valid and if pressure of two connected cycles brings us to final low, it could be a very hard landing. I somewhat think CBs wont allow that, so manage to delay cycle. Lets watch their actions.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Now, exploration of the past is nice, but what are the outcomes. Last identified end of cycle was at 6.6.2010 and 3.10.2011 low @ 1,32 was 484 days away. If this is accounted as a final low of current minor cycle, we are in stage 2 confirming major level 3 cycle, which should be going down already. Since we aint, I assume we are still in first part of the cycle and final low will come at 6.6.2010 +avg (543 days) to max(705 days), which is somewhat like 1.12.2011 till 11.5.2012.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,325
  • Feb 6, 2015 5:57pm Feb 6, 2015 5:57pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Great, join us in mumbo realm! Am right now having great fun. I wasnt paying real attention to this post of mine, as it wasnt trading post, but a cycle research. And there is a big difference between research and trading and my account sometimes feels the pain. I have mentioned many times that although cycle research produces quite good results when it comes to levels, timing is a great failure. Nevertheless, this particular research played out also well. Midcycle low was 07.2012. There is a big butt here. I miss one wave. Those should...


when you have a cool head I'll do a little research on
mumbo...
now only fun...
good weekend.
  • #72,326
  • Feb 6, 2015 6:55pm Feb 6, 2015 6:55pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} when you have a cool head I'll do a little research on mumbo... now only fun... good weekend.
Oh no man, I aint cooling down. You have awaken devil . This is my work for the weekend. So its not only me having fun, here is some jumbo. If wanna explore whether cycle is delayed, we gotta look on longer timeframe. Theese are weekly closes. Lotsa fun.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,327
  • Feb 7, 2015 12:42pm Feb 7, 2015 12:42pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Something that may be of interest for you (since you're some kinda econarcheologist) would be to use the standard frequency at which standard ratio are getting stabilized. (just in case you don't know what to do this week-end). Seems there is a natural rhythm for ratio stabilization, whatever figures you come from. {image}
Hi DO
really like this table ... over 55 very stable.
  • #72,328
  • Feb 7, 2015 12:46pm Feb 7, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Oh no man, I aint cooling down. You have awaken devil . This is my work for the weekend. So its not only me having fun, here is some jumbo. If wanna explore whether cycle is delayed, we gotta look on longer timeframe. Theese are weekly closes. Lotsa fun. {image} {image}
thank you ...
the first frame I realize ... but the second !!! I can not find reason to X or Z output.
  • #72,329
  • Feb 7, 2015 12:50pm Feb 7, 2015 12:50pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} thank you ... the first frame I realize ... but the second !!! I can not find reason to X or Z output.
What do you mean no reason? These are statistics of wave structure. It measures waves heights/lenghts in absolute and relative terms, separates to trends and corrections, so then you can get idea what to expect of certain type of wave.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,330
  • Feb 7, 2015 1:02pm Feb 7, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} What do you mean no reason? These are statistics of wave structure. It measures waves heights/lenghts in absolute and relative terms, separates to trends and corrections, so then you can get idea what to expect of certain type of wave.
okay..
is a analize the first frame ...
good...
have this in excel ?
where you can enter the size of the waves.
  • #72,331
  • Feb 7, 2015 1:16pm Feb 7, 2015 1:16pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} okay.. is a analize the first frame ... good... have this in excel ? where you can enter the size of the waves.
Size of waves is set by me. I am retesting numbers till I get good average numbers and varr coefficients of min/avg/max waves to catch similarities. This current setup is minimum 27% retracement and 1500 pips, are big waves .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,332
  • Feb 7, 2015 1:26pm Feb 7, 2015 1:26pm
This is how the table goes on. Analysis is not finished, so it is still not properly set. Can get better numbers if work on it but takes time. But see Var coefficients show pretty strong simillarities for example when it comes to trends of this pair, there arent much average trends and pair is either trending very hard or soft. So say once about 228% of trend strength broken, is likely may run up to 268%, but more possibly to the mid of it. Say now we are trending at speed about 154%, so reaching top of a minimum long term trend - which is about 163%.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,333
  • Feb 7, 2015 6:19pm Feb 7, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
While you are fan of cycles like myself, you know these guys? Kondratieff, Berry, Juglar, Kitchin. All made some kind of their research of cycles and focused partially on timing. You may like to have a look. Tony Plummer wrote very nice book where sumarises these. Especially Kondratieff winter seems super funny given current stance of economy . While blathering bout it. This is my "tradeplan". Cycles within cycles within cycles. Then you add few waves within waves, supply and demand to set depth of the ocean and then dodge sharks. {image}...
summary listing of your guys:
http://www.econohistory.com/blog/ind...g-time-triads/

Elliot+fractals+cycles+fibo = nice combo
*still a problem: timing
Solution: the approach -> time is NOT linear, but subject to stress and distortion -> coefficient ?
But still I have no idea of a system to monitor this.
  • #72,334
  • Feb 7, 2015 6:34pm Feb 7, 2015 6:34pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} summary listing of your guys: http://www.econohistory.com/blog/ind...g-time-triads/ Elliot+fractals+cycles+fibo = nice combo *still a problem: timing Solution: the approach -> time is NOT linear, but subject to stress and distortion -> coefficient ? But still I have no idea of a system to monitor this.
First of all, thank you very much for that table in .xls thread. I like Fibonacci system. Though I dont believe it is a base of the universe, I do believe universe pulses in waves which can be measured. Now this is heavy mumbo huh?

Anyway, am still working on that system. Is more of a life goal than something I could figure out short term. I need to program few more VBA codes to be able to analyze those waves faster. It takes a lot of time for me now to run those tests, coz am really bad coder. But see the idea behind:
You get timeseries of various macro numbers. Say for start my first goal is to include these, since I focus on three major liquid markets beeing US, EU and Japan.
US,EU,Japan macro - GDP, unemployment, inflation, BP
Indexes - Nikkei, Dax, Dow, FTSE, SaP500
Commodities - Oil, Gold
FX - EU, UJ, EJ

So, my goal is to chop all these timeseries into wave fractions and measure lagging (moved in time) correlations of these. And I plan to mine all these data once I learn to use that Reuters in our school. I believe we can explore longer term cycles on macro numbers and short term cycles of indexes and currencies follow the major ones.

Still, pretty long run, but am getting closer.

Regarding timing issue, I think this could be solved by options. Also a goal.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,335
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:20am Feb 8, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} First of all, thank you very much for that table in .xls thread. I like Fibonacci system. Though I dont believe it is a base of the universe, I do believe universe pulses in waves which can be measured. Now this is heavy mumbo huh? Anyway, am still working on that system. Is more of a life goal than something I could figure out short term. I need to program few more VBA codes to be able to analyze those waves faster. It takes a lot of time for me now to run those tests, coz am really bad coder. But see the idea behind: You get timeseries...

Nice project. Will you make use of it for your final exam Thesis (since you're studying)? Maybe should you start a new thread with that ? If you're able to extract big data (complete, accurate, no "blank", reliable, extensive, etc..) and share (I'm always happy to dig into huge dtb), I can assist in programming your VBE (well, to the extend of my remaining free time since my time is quite already awfully over-allocated...).

I see you're looking to link macro info in the analysis, then you may have a look to map the announcement with a SMQ relationship?
http://www.olsendata.com/data_products/welcome/

But maybe should we discuss that in another place than in a tread originally created by PT to analyse EUR pegs ? :-)
  • #72,336
  • Edited 12:01pm Feb 8, 2015 10:28am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting Delta1One
But maybe should we discuss that in another place than in a tread originally created by PT to analyse EUR pegs ?
I already have so much data for my Thesis I could write it within a week .

Will very, very, very much appreciate if you help me with codes. It gives me headache. Ofc am gonna be sharing timeseries and results. But where? There are four threads I currently visit for longer term FA and TA, beeing here, Christophers corner, Fool´s thread about options, also need to add Infinitus thread The Club. I would prefere if all these separated minds united in one thread, but am not gonna be making a new one for it. Better lurk everyone in thread already started. Am hoping these guys will unite at one place, but I cant pick it.

Also thanks for links,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,337
  • Feb 8, 2015 5:45pm Feb 8, 2015 5:45pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Nice technical reload area but it is a bit overstretched at the moment, so can be the measures (here between 117.95-118.15) are a bit out of shape as well. But definitely worth to be followed-up dear hyperbolic seer ! :-) {image}
I'm taking a quick little short here with sharp trailing SL on the back of the Asia news (even if CNY is not JPY) + assumption of low level retest while awaiting potential reload area. Let's see what London will say at the opening.
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  • #72,338
  • Feb 8, 2015 5:48pm Feb 8, 2015 5:48pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} I'm taking a quick little short here with sharp trailing SL on the back of the Asia news (even if CNY is not JPY) + assumption of low level retest while awaiting potential reload area. Let's see what London will say at the opening. {image}
Am prepared to cover partial very fast. news any minute.
K. Good numbers, if you ask me. Wonder what Mayor says.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,339
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:09pm Feb 8, 2015 7:09pm
I hold 3 pairs, but my short exposure chart is kinda strange. Am I overdoing it?
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #72,340
  • Feb 9, 2015 6:24pm Feb 9, 2015 6:24pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} I'm taking a quick little short here with sharp trailing SL on the back of the Asia news (even if CNY is not JPY) + assumption of low level retest while awaiting potential reload area. Let's see what London will say at the opening. {image}
Trailing down SL. Still holding the position till next reload area as agreed.
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