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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #55,561
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:06am Feb 8, 2015 10:06am
Classics scenario. Chinamen make 60Bn to spend, because their costs are superlow thanks to Oil, and all Western media present it as incredibly bad data, explaining surge in Trade balance by weak demand. Well, guess what. Total costs = quantity * price. Price down, total costs down, trade surplus up. Is it really that hard? Wonder if they can twist expectations, but Propaganda really is a great trading book.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,562
  • Feb 8, 2015 10:20am Feb 8, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I generally dont trust moves out of news and think market usually a) overreacts b)corrects c) and now this is conspiration - since is heavy cash involved, such a move up for sure damages some party. And I consider all news twisted and am pretty sure they r gonna release some counternumber to push the market back.
So, these are the counternumbers I spoke of. Conspiracy? For sure. China data would push Asian stocks up, but already Fridays squeeze was enough right? So we need to correct, let us discredit data. Same old story.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,563
  • Feb 8, 2015 12:22pm Feb 8, 2015 12:22pm
No gap ..........

Attached Image
  • #55,564
  • Feb 8, 2015 12:54pm Feb 8, 2015 12:54pm
does that hint the direction?
Whenever i buy the price goes up & whenever i sell the the price goes down!
  • #55,565
  • Edited 3:01pm Feb 8, 2015 1:24pm | Edited 3:01pm
Yes, there is low liquidity, but it does give a hint. Liquidity will start flowing once Sydney, Singapoure opens. Imo it ends up as Ken said. Numbers vs counternumbers, lets call it a tie, shall we? Stupid news... Either way, think am gonna cover 1/4 partial and prepare for load in mid.

Edit: Love simplifying. Gap up = reason wins. Gap down = Western propaganda wins. No gap = Tie . Either way, you aint getting me bastards.
Edit: 119,18 now. Go reason go!
Edit: And propaganda taking lead @ 119,03. What a battle.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDJPY:CUR
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,566
  • Feb 8, 2015 1:35pm Feb 8, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting mikajap
{quote} range breakout was successful reached 3X range . In now closing my trade. {image} Also watching a previous consolidation area around 119.500-120 zone for possible short setup {image} USD Bulls
Kudos on capitalizing on that move ... .

Pulls his own hair out ... . Bailed out of UJ long position for nominal pippage on 2/5 because pair was going sideways ... .

Lack of patience will get you every time ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #55,567
  • Feb 8, 2015 2:34pm Feb 8, 2015 2:34pm
How the Chinese date will affect this pair guys
  • #55,568
  • Feb 8, 2015 3:12pm Feb 8, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting ibram.forex
How the Chinese date will affect this pair guys

probably affect not...I think.
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #55,569
  • Feb 8, 2015 4:06pm Feb 8, 2015 4:06pm
Goebbels vs. Reason 1:0 . But was close, think I keep that partial for a while. You know that story with first goals.

+ watch Japan current account in like 1h 35m. Simmilar stats, also pretty important.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,570
  • Edited 4:44pm Feb 8, 2015 4:24pm | Edited 4:44pm
Regarding that Japan Current account.
Wondering what data come out of Minister in charge of Overcoming Deflation . What a title.

K, the plan goes = am gonna cover partial after data release, or on confirm break of W open. Maybe.

If close enough to Friday close at time of release, targets for overshoot 119,42 119,63, otherwise just Friday close.
Attached Image
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,571
  • Edited 6:06pm Feb 8, 2015 5:41pm | Edited 6:06pm
m5 seems confirming break of open. 10 mins to data...
So, Minister in charge sends us 9,766 mil (+6,8%) Yen current account surplus. Good numbers, if you ask me. Export of goods growth month to month +4,1%. Import of goods decline -1% (Oil again?). Services on further decline.

Overall saying - Japans current account is dragged down by Services, Primary and Secondary income. But main part of Japan trade balance beeing Goods, their export growth of +4,1%, combined with lower prices of Oil pushed whole balance into nice surplus.

Sorry for editing, wanted to inform you fast
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,572
  • Feb 8, 2015 6:34pm Feb 8, 2015 6:34pm
Am watching this now. If 118,8 - 118,7 goes, we are set for a nice correction. I hope. Funny, I like both when market is coming up and down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: m5.JPG Size: 67 KB
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,573
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:12pm Feb 8, 2015 7:12pm
Quoting ibram.forex
How the Chinese date will affect this pair guys
we will crush this pair
Attached Image
  • #55,574
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:28pm Feb 8, 2015 7:28pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Am watching this now. If 118,8 - 118,7 goes, we are set for a nice correction. I hope. Funny, I like both when market is coming up and down. {image}
Would love 116. What a great buying opportunity!
Mark
  • #55,575
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:29pm Feb 8, 2015 7:29pm
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} Would love 116. What a great buying opportunity!
Yeh. If its gonna get there am gonna shoot so much I will warp this pair straight to 125. Quantum stuff, ya know.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,576
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:32pm Feb 8, 2015 7:32pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Yeh. If its gonna get there am gonna shoot so much I will warp this pair straight to 125. Quantum stuff, ya know.
I'll shoot too. Make it 126.
Mark
  • #55,577
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:34pm Feb 8, 2015 7:34pm
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} I'll shoot too. Make it 126.
Need to wait one, two weeks. Thats scenario B in case 117,9 breaks
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,578
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:41pm Feb 8, 2015 7:41pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Need to wait one, two weeks. Thats scenario B in case 117,9 breaks
If 122 breaks first, I will be astonished, although I've been astonished with this pair since Halloween.
Mark
  • #55,579
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:49pm Feb 8, 2015 7:49pm
Hope it reaches a logical retracement level for me to enter long again.
Luck shines on the positive.
  • #55,580
  • Feb 8, 2015 7:50pm Feb 8, 2015 7:50pm
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} If 122 breaks first, I will be astonished, although I've been astonished with this pair since Halloween.
Nothing astonishing, regular abc in my books. Though abcde would be more fun and given G20 we could as well be ranging.

H1 definitely not gonna be nice. I have taken one partial.

Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So after weekend analysis am very much focusing on 90s, as thats the place where my tradeplan goes either a, or b direction. Scenario A was the one I ve already described - standard abc trianguloid consolidation + break. Targets for load on this type of break are written here. {quote} Scenario B - is abcde consolidation and we are finishing the triangle pre break - making waves D, E. Decision point in my charts are discussed 90s. {quote} Am watching this area very closely. We got both G20 summit and Eurogroup meetings this week. Though I dont expect...
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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