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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #55,541
  • Feb 6, 2015 10:04am Feb 6, 2015 10:04am
what is the target usdjpy for upwards?
  • #55,542
  • Feb 6, 2015 10:13am Feb 6, 2015 10:13am
Quoting hirenfxtrade
what is the target usdjpy for upwards?
119.75
120.5
121.5
And above..123 125 is possible
  • #55,543
  • Feb 6, 2015 10:13am Feb 6, 2015 10:13am
Quoting hirenfxtrade
what is the target usdjpy for upwards?
I expect 1.20 at least. If it has enough steam to keep going it might reach 1.24 or even more.
  • #55,544
  • Feb 6, 2015 10:22am Feb 6, 2015 10:22am
its already touch upper daily trend line.. i think will going down now..
  • #55,545
  • Feb 6, 2015 10:29am Feb 6, 2015 10:29am
Quoting adelle
its already touch upper daily trend line.. i think will going down now..
I hope so...but 119 is stubborn at the moment..
  • #55,546
  • Edited 11:59am Feb 6, 2015 11:00am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} I hope so...but 119 is stubborn at the moment..
Mate I hope you are catching that knife with low leverage, as if you burn your account, apart from beeing broke, am gonna track you down and kick your ass. I had partial here, think is very good place as top overshoot and you SL should hold, but doesnt have to, move is too fast, think better 119,315 - above that wick. Watch that red circle, thats the R zone guarding your shorts now.
edit: And your SL gone :/, mate, hope was low lvrg.
Edit: I had to delete smiley. Am really gonna kick your ass if you burn account.
Last edit: Bye bye, I need some time off screen. Have a nice weekend all.
T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,547
  • Feb 6, 2015 11:53am Feb 6, 2015 11:53am
currently -90 pips T_T.. should i stop lost? 10usd per pips T_T
  • #55,548
  • Feb 6, 2015 12:52pm Feb 6, 2015 12:52pm
Quoting mikajap
PA pressing upward and want to break the range. Bias is bullish for now {image}
range breakout was successful reached 3X range . In now closing my trade.
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Also watching a previous consolidation area around 119.500-120 zone for possible short setup
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USD Bulls
Reaction is better than Prediction
  • #55,549
  • Feb 6, 2015 2:56pm Feb 6, 2015 2:56pm
Silly, I know.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Like this . Oh that MS paint is sooo sweet. Really wonderfull charting tool.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,550
  • Feb 6, 2015 4:14pm Feb 6, 2015 4:14pm
Quoting pbylina
USDJPY is consolidating on the daily. Nice wedge shape - maybe it will breakout during NFP tomorrow.
Damn...How did I know?;-)
  • #55,551
  • Feb 6, 2015 6:23pm Feb 6, 2015 6:23pm
guys are we ready to short it yet
  • #55,552
  • Feb 6, 2015 8:26pm Feb 6, 2015 8:26pm
120.00 level seems to be the psychological level.
  • #55,553
  • Feb 6, 2015 11:24pm Feb 6, 2015 11:24pm
Quoting csc2009
120.00 level seems to be the psychological level.
Sound good
  • #55,554
  • Feb 7, 2015 6:37am Feb 7, 2015 6:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Mate I hope you are catching that knife with low leverage, as if you burn your account, apart from beeing broke, am gonna track you down and kick your ass. I had partial here, think is very good place as top overshoot and you SL should hold, but doesnt have to, move is too fast, think better 119,315 - above that wick. Watch that red circle, thats the R zone guarding your shorts now. edit: And your SL gone :/, mate, hope was low lvrg. Edit: I had to delete smiley. Am really gonna kick your ass if you burn account. Last edit: Bye bye, I need...
Hi Tom, yes it was very hurt catching falling knife. should have been more patience.
luckily it was small size.

now uj at upper wedge (or triangle?) channel
retesting 119 level
double top 15m
thinking it will touch 118.4
wishing to short but...
what will happen next?
  • #55,555
  • Feb 7, 2015 7:06am Feb 7, 2015 7:06am
Yes mate, upper wedge. Lucky you got stopped out, if there is a gap up, could hurt a lot. Well, is hard to say, I think it happens like this: correction down to 118,54 118,3 118,165 max intraday overshoot which I expect @ Tuesday 117,945. But there is always but here. I aint really convinced in this move. Yes, we have broken mid and it appears it starts trending. But, was it last week, when FOMC panic on Friday pushed us to 116,9? I generally dont trust moves out of news and think market usually a) overreacts b)corrects c) and now this is conspiration - since is heavy cash involved, such a move up for sure damages some party. And I consider all news twisted and am pretty sure they r gonna release some counternumber to push the market back. Either way, I expect correction @50-70% 61,8 would be perf ofc. But although I dont trust those numbers and think counternumbers are coming, needed to say some markets, like UJ for example, broke major S/R and starting trending. We are still in the wedge, so bull not confirmed, but this weekly close sure is a great attempt to break it.
T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,556
  • Feb 7, 2015 7:37am Feb 7, 2015 7:37am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yes mate, upper wedge. Lucky you got stopped out, if there is a gap up, could hurt a lot. Well, is hard to say, I think it happens like this: correction down to 118,54 118,3 118,165 max intraday overshoot which I expect @ Tuesday 117,945. But there is always but here. I aint really convinced in this move. Yes, we have broken mid and it appears it starts trending. But, was it last week, when FOMC panic on Friday pushed us to 116,9? I generally dont trust moves out of news and think market usually a) overreacts b)corrects c) and now this is conspiration...
Looks good.
  • #55,557
  • Feb 7, 2015 9:55am Feb 7, 2015 9:55am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Gj Sam . Best place. Think we should definitely correct to retest mid @ 118,3 but more possibly overshoot down to 117,945. But given long consolidation we had, this was such a brutal squeeze I think market aint stopping now and we get pretty good weekly close @ 118,7. I expect that retest of triangle mid 118,185 - 118,695 @ Tuesday. Lets wait for Mr. Market to digest the move.
thanks tom, seems like the upper edge of triangle/tl is respected, like to see a pullback to 118.50 or to lower tl near 118.20, best is demand zone 117.90ish,but we will see next week...
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Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #55,558
  • Feb 8, 2015 8:27am Feb 8, 2015 8:27am
So after weekend analysis am very much focusing on 90s, as thats the place where my tradeplan goes either a, or b direction.

Scenario A was the one I ve already described - standard abc trianguloid consolidation + break. Targets for load on this type of break are written here.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
correction down to 118,54 118,3 118,165 max intraday overshoot which I expect @ Tuesday 117,945
Scenario B - is abcde consolidation and we are finishing the triangle pre break - making waves D, E. Decision point in my charts are discussed 90s.
Quoting sam69
best is demand zone 117.90ish,but we will see next week.
Am watching this area very closely. We got both G20 summit and Eurogroup meetings this week. Though I dont expect politicians to do anything meaningfull, I expect they can screw up, this beeing their strongest ability. Also Tuesday China PPI - and this was what plunged us to 116,9. + JPY bank holliday on Wednesday, just for the fun of it. As well as me, Market could be also afraid politicians will screw up, so in essence may be ranging and finish waves D, E. For such case am watching break of mentioned 117,9 - 117,8 on weekly chart. We still got 3 weeks to close the month and need monthly to break wedge up. I expect last week of month will be already full bull, but we got two weeks for range no problem. Case 90s break, back to old numbers eh?

GL this week,

Tom
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #55,559
  • Feb 8, 2015 8:42am Feb 8, 2015 8:42am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So after weekend analysis am very much focusing on 90s, as thats the place where my tradeplan goes either a, or b direction. Scenario A was the one I ve already described - standard abc trianguloid consolidation + break. Targets for load on this type of break are written here. {quote} Scenario B - is abcde consolidation and we are finishing the triangle pre break - making waves D, E. Decision point in my charts are discussed 90s. {quote} Am watching this area very closely. We got both G20 summit and Eurogroup meetings this week. Though I dont expect...
Great post Tom.
Thanks!
  • #55,560
  • Edited 8:59am Feb 8, 2015 8:58am | Edited 8:59am
Glad you like it. Btw, watch China trade balance today +60Bn! Far above expectations. As I ve said I dont trust numbers and am from ex-soviet country, I especially dont trust communistic numbers. But 60Bn, wow. Think we could get pretty big gap up. Real luck you got closed on Friday mate. These events like trade balance are dangerous.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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