News trading discussion - continuation

I wonder why it is that you don't appear to trade the news the way that the Institutions and (ex-) Floor traders do?

I traded the GU on the UK Manufacturing PMI this morning.
I traded it long for 15 pips (an Undercooked trade i.e price not reflecting the new post news fair value).
Then I traded it short off the spike high (an Overcooked i.e. price more than reflecting the new fair value) for another 10 pips.
I wish I had stayed with that 2nd trade because it just kept going.

The best 3 out of 4 good news trades ALL require you being able to calculate the new fair value based on the news announcement.
You can :
1. Trade the pre-news positioning by the big boys - all completed BEFORE the news comes out.
2. Trade a Contra (enter before news and exit after news) when too big a pre-news price move means that the news forecast is over factored in.
3. Trade and Undercooked or Overcooked ( entry and exit both after the news).
4. Trade a short term pullback in the impulsive move after a big news release.

All of those have high to decent strike rate and good to amazing Return to Risk.
But hardly anybody teaches them!

My Broker doesn't offer MT4 on the my live account, so I use a demo for charting.
So please forgive the MT4 chart mark-up

Thoughts on "smart traders"

For the first time since August 2013, the RBA interest rate change

Reserve Bank of Australia, on Tuesday, setting a new historical record low interest rate - the rate was reduced to 2.25% (2.5% previously).
RBA said the main reasons for this decision: the growth of Europe and Japan, weaker than expected, the decline in oil prices, as the reason for the reduction of inflation, domestic demand growth below trend, the possible risks in the housing market, the high rate of AUD.
The main question after the exhaust fact that you have to ask yourself: "Will there be a further easing of monetary policy?". Considering the text of the Protocol - the probability is maintained, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the possibility of further interest rate cuts. Moreover, that experts expect a similar action on the part of China later this month.
ISM Manufacturing PMI from the US went to the annual minimum (53.5), and then returns the market's attention to the person. We, in turn, pointed to decrease in price component and the employment indicator. Recall that the Fed remains in the "Watch" and further its decision will depend on macroeconomic data.
At the same time, the British Manufacturing PMI is fixed at the previous level of 53 bps.
In general, the trend for PMI indicators suggests global pullback sentiment to the psychological threshold of "50", confirmation of this will be found in the environment, in this day and a publication of important European PMI.

NZ Number of employed
NZ Employment Change

Reserve Bank of Australia made his move: lowered the interest rate that was a logical act, although economists do not expect it. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand as a result of its meeting last week, the protocols have on their openness in this matter.
RBNZ is not as agile as the RBA, it is more conservative, but his actions to some extent, under certain circumstances, can be called "mirror" of the current Australian neighbors.
In principle, reports tell us that the Bank is willing to sufficient room for maneuver in their decisions, which was enough to fall NZD directly at the figure. Both pairs of oceanic mean that remain under pressure.
It is understood that the central bank is now particularly closely monitor the performance of their economies and the labor market is not only not an exception, but also one of the most important indicators.
To our emphasis on complex publication from New Zealand to play in a few seconds will be published two important indicator in the package:
NZ Unemployment Rate
And NZ Employment Change
Both figures are provided on a quarterly basis.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
NZ Number of employed
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (Unemployment Rate)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (Employment Change)
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
04/11/2014 -0.1 +0.2 38 Height couples
06/08/2014 -0.2 -0.3 Spike 16-26 spiking due konlfikta data
07/05/2014 0.2 0.3 24 roll back the entire candle thorn down
02/04/2014 0 0.5 17-33 The sharp increase of ~ 30, rolled back to half a candle...

Wednesday
11:30
02/04/15
GB activity index in the services sector
(GB Services PMI), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Wednesday
17:30
02/04/15
US crude oil and refined
(US Crude Oil Inventories), USA, #CL
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades

Thursday
2:30
02/05/15
AU Retail Sales
(AU Retail Sales), Australia, AUDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Thursday
14:00
02/05/15
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.

Thursday
17:30
02/05/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

FRS creeps softly, but the trend is different


Bullard (FRS, USA): Despite the easing of inflation, economic condition in normal conditions, the Fed could and should begin to raise interest rates, which were relevant in 2008, but not now. Bullard also sees the US unemployment rate at 5.3% for the third quarter of 2015.

Kocherlakota (FRS) in turn (usually?) Opposite: inflation his guards, he believes that the Fed should respond to such a low level of CPI.
It is believed the markets, the Fed continues to "prepare the ground slowly" for further interest rate increase this year.
Oil well rolled, and against this background and the dollar is losing ground (found vent old). It is particularly wide in USD and CAD, which correlates true hydrocarbon currency and tired American who by the way did not come to the heart of the weak data of industrial orders (Factory Orders -3.4%, decreasing the fifth month in a row).

New Zealand has published a rather controversial report on the labor market, with a prevalence towards negativity. Thus, Employment Change showed increase of 1.2% vs. 0.8%, while unemployment increased by as much as 0.4% to 5.7%, the growth dynamics of RFP is not observed. We can only guess about the plans of the RBNZ, continue to observe.

Ahead GB The official rate of asthma and Non-Farm Employment Change.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

NonFarm is not the same
Do not burn alive

Non-Farm is not the same. Died? No. Became an adult. And when you become an adult - the risks around you only grow. As a child of the huge problem may be the lack of the necessary toys, with the age range of uncomfortable around you expands.

And NFP too long been the center of attention all the time, and when you look at the long one thing - before you open it with new parts.

And time. Extraordinary time, requiring a more comprehensive assessment of the situation, if earlier markets enough levels, such as "7%" or "6%" of unemployment, which is designated for the Fed to action triggers, but now the focus is blurred, takes into account both quantitative and qualitative .

The package is available Payrolls number of indicators such as the percentage of unemployment, the number of employed, the average wage revisions to past releases. All this is poured into the bottle, insert a makeshift wick and thrown into the markets covered by the instantaneous pulse of fire. Many brokers interesting that you have merged at this point, and this explains the mass mailing of a "fast buck".

And in this environment is important not to be burned alive.

Be extremely careful.
Analytics shows us the last days of training to raise interest rates by the Fed. A number of statements of the first persons gives reason to believe that low inflation is still unable to move the date of expectations of interest rate hikes Fedreza. At the same time, the dollar is now well "spring" against the backdrop of a rollback in oil prices, if it is to remain a "springy" before the auction - most likely it will be psychologically easier to get out of this corridor.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
US Number of employed outside agriculture
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (US Non-Farm Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her prognosis (US Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
09/01 / 201512-0,140 / 15Shipovanie on 40/15
05/12 / 40-50 201491085Gep n. The pair
07/11 / 2014-21-0,181Rezkaya reaction falling to 81 points, but then rolled back to 35 puntkov reaction. Went for a couple of minutes to 50 n.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

While Greece says the rest are

Hunt for benchmarks timing of interest rate hikes the Fed continues: Markets get enough attention from the Fedreza and continue to accumulate US statistics before nonfarmom.

Greece talks with creditors, and this is still perceived if not as "good", just neutral. On debt relief until the question, because the parties are trying to find a compromise. Still sounded such an interesting thought: the longer the negotiations last, the less chance of a Greek exit from the EU "now, at this moment."

His word, in the passing day, also said the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand: a period of stability rates in New Zealand is currently the most sensible option, at the same time and in the same text "appeal to the people" and other words ran "if necessary, it will lower. "As a conclusion - Statistics from the NC should be well digested by the markets during this period.

ADP Employment Change from the US anything interesting: + 213K + 223K versus forecast. The saddest thing is that this growth (above average) participants already perceived as a tribute. Nevertheless, perhaps, consider the data "weak spot".
ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite as "stable": 56.7 vs. 56.4, while the employment component of 51.6 against the previous 55.7 (despite the fact that in the field of Manufacturing the same situation).

Weidmann (ECB, Germany): QE risks exceed the benefits, and the ECB should not be dictated by market expectations. (It seems we are somewhere already heard it somewhere in the US when launched QE3 ... and nothing is now the most successful economy in the world after 2008).

We wrote that in the wake of the RBA PBOC also reduce the rate of (non-event, but the spirit of unity in the present), and so the NSC has reduced it from 20% to 19.5% - this is the question of the future solutions RB New Zealand.
FRS Mester feels "comfortable" with regard to the alleged increase in interest rates in the first half of 2015. And allocate this information, as it seems only yesterday wrote that the Fed "begins to lay." Preparing for a little, but first let's see NFP.

USDCAD

Thoughts on "smart traders"

The Bank of England remains at the

The Bank of England, predictably, left the interest rate and Asset Purchase Target on their previous levels of 0.5% and 375mlrd. respectively.

The ECB has refused to accept Greek government bonds as collateral for their loans that Greece stated: the ECB have a low degree of influence.

The Swiss Government has stated that his economic forecasts are no longer valid after the SNB remove support for the EURCHF. It is noted that the strong franc will reduce the competitiveness of Swiss manufacturers.

ECB's Weidmann, remains skeptical to launch European QE, believes that the risk of dangerous deflation is currently very low.
The European Commission has lowered the forecast growth in the UK's GDP for 2015 and 2016: 2.6% vs 2.7% (2015) and 2.4% compared to 2.5% (2016).

One of the best trade on news this year.....NFP welcome

Yes, beauties

did you chnage buy and sell buttons maybe?