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  • #957,761
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:30am Feb 5, 2015 5:30am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Maybe I'm wrong, but: - So we are at flip zone -> no trading zone - Because of coming from the bottom of the range + over flip zone -> I should hold long, under 1.142 fold - Only sell at the top of the range at 1.154 ?

Good analysis, we are consolidating the run up, don't just see a red bar as an intraday reversal. Right now we are testing the high again, there is nothing yet saying we are going back down. We can't really, too many retailers are short, can't be helping them now can we.....
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #957,762
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:31am Feb 5, 2015 5:31am
greece doesn't have the money to repay loans. Greece leaving the euro is best possible solution but it will come at the expense of 140 billion and more. so in any case we have default coming. so it is negative euro. ecb is on the offer at 1.2 and above
  • #957,763
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:31am Feb 5, 2015 5:31am
haha, this is totally insane. incredible bullish momentum
  • #957,764
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:32am Feb 5, 2015 5:32am
theres big guy press buy button then sudenly market move up fast.. and he laugh out loudly..

but he didnt notice incoming text message from draghi.. "wtf are you doing we need cheap euro"
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #957,765
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:32am Feb 5, 2015 5:32am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} Supply hasn't just reduced, it has increased Saudi increased its production by 300,000bd and they will keep doing it until the supply side elsewhere is reduced, look at the rig count in the US, that is the target of the Saudis, you don't think they want the Americans pumping their own oil now do you? Saudi is happy with 15-20 a barrel, they will still make a profit, once the supply side has vanished elsewhere they will make a killing on the way up. Real demand is down, the demand you are seeing now is artificial, it won't last.
Yep agree.
  • #957,766
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:32am Feb 5, 2015 5:32am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} Supply hasn't just reduced, it has increased Saudi increased its production by 300,000bd and they will keep doing it until the supply side elsewhere is reduced, look at the rig count in the US, that is the target of the Saudis, you don't think they want the Americans pumping their own oil now do you? Saudi is happy with 15-20 a barrel, they will still make a profit, once the supply side has vanished elsewhere they will make a killing on the way up. Real demand is down, the demand you are seeing now is artificial, it won't last.
True, so, on that basis, at what point are we likely to see the price reacting again?
How do we, the great unwashed, know when the tipping point is, what is the trigger likely to be or the signs that we should be looking for?
  • #957,767
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:33am Feb 5, 2015 5:33am
Quoting mied
theres big guy press buy button then sudenly market move up fast.. and he laugh out loudly.. but he didnt notice incoming text message from draghi.. "wtf are you doing we need cheap euro"
basically -- minus the draghi part.
  • #957,768
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:34am Feb 5, 2015 5:34am
Quoting Devonsent
{quote} True, so, on that basis, at what point are we likely to see the price reacting again? How do we, the great unwashed, know when the tipping point is, what is the trigger likely to be or the signs that we should be looking for?
Likely to go to 35 this year. I was bearish as hell at 100+ calling for 50. 35 likely to be seen this year, 50-65 the new normal most probably. And don't expect much of a rally right now with this stat. Source: IG mkts.
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  • #957,769
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:35am Feb 5, 2015 5:35am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} Good analysis, we are consolidating the run up, don't just see a red bar as an intraday reversal. Right now we are testing the high again, there is nothing yet saying we are going back down. We can't really, too many retailers are short, can't be helping them now can we.....
Thank you guys (girls/ladies/madames?) for giving this thread high-standards!!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #957,770
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:36am Feb 5, 2015 5:36am
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Never follow/blame others,Patience is the key skill for Succesfull trading.
  • #957,771
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:37am Feb 5, 2015 5:37am
Quoting sgkrishn
{image}
Nice vest.
  • #957,772
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:38am Feb 5, 2015 5:38am
Quoting sgkrishn
{image}
Bruha-ha-ha...that face expression...
f(z)=z2+c
  • #957,773
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:38am Feb 5, 2015 5:38am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} basically -- minus the draghi part.
... draghi part its true dude.. now he texting to other big guy to press sell button immedietly.. and we will see on market when big guy read the text..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #957,774
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:38am Feb 5, 2015 5:38am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Thank you guys (girls?) for giving this thread high-standards!!

We are at an area that blows accounts, still lots of momentum bars up testing a previous high, but plenty of red bars too that suck in the wary. I was talking about it yesterday how areas like this are always messy, this is where the uninitiated jump in, plenty too late to catch a move, others too early to catch a reversal. This is noise, good to scalp but not easy to do succesfully.

This is where retail traders that held shorts on the way up start revenge trading with lotsizes that are too big for their account attempting to rescue their balance from their inability to cut their losses early on the previous move.
A contrarian; I always disagree.
  • #957,775
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:39am Feb 5, 2015 5:39am
Greece is more complicated under the surface. its banking failing has many unforeseen implications. its all contagious, and to what depth smarter people then me dont know.
1 what happens if Greek Banks fail and is it a probability, with a bank run? i dont know
2 what happens to mortgages, backed by those Greek banks?... whats the affect to (older loans) ones newly considered a ecb backed export when/if Greece is no longer a ecb member. not just public debt, private debt. the same with any imported mortgages (banks) into Greece. with a new currency and laws, some non Greek banks can be left with 0. i dont know
3 Greece can pull out with less debt. and as in the past, new investors (Goldman) will be at the door to do business. i dont know

4 the truth is, neither does anyone else

nobody knows what will be written in new Greek laws concerning this.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #957,776
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:39am Feb 5, 2015 5:39am
With PA staying above 61.82% retracement, it's still on-track for the 1.1900s area.
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #957,777
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:44am Feb 5, 2015 5:44am
Main point- greece issue aside = European bank is inflating their currency = purposely devaluing currency = obviously going to 1.0
Other main point = US bank tightening which = USD strengthening which = not good for EUR/USD
I know it seems like rocket science.. but... yeah.
  • #957,778
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:44am Feb 5, 2015 5:44am
Quoting goldfinch
{quote} We are at an area that blows accounts, still lots of momentum bars up testing a previous hight, but plenty of red bars too that suck in the unwarry. I was talking about it yesterday how areas like this are always messy, this is where the uninitiated jump in, plenty too late to catch a move, others too early to catch a reversal. This is noise, good to scalp but not easy to do succesfully. This is where retail traders that held shorts on the way up start revenge trading with lotsizes that are too big for their account attempting to rescue...
Very true..Sadly I can say I experienced this on my own skin, when first tried real trading instead of demo.
In other words I paid for the lesson already...till that moment I never add to any loser trades.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #957,779
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:45am Feb 5, 2015 5:45am
1.14 coming soon to a MT4 chart near you
  • #957,780
  • Feb 5, 2015 5:46am Feb 5, 2015 5:46am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bruha-ha-ha...that face expression...
I think he is out of ammo.
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