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TMS and Me

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  • Post #281
  • Quote
  • Edited 8:04pm Jan 22, 2015 7:50pm | Edited 8:04pm
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Hi Heispark. Thank you for dropping by Good to see you to mate!

I'm doing well. Very well. EUR/USD is off to a good start. I think I'm switching to daily or even weekly to watch this pair now.
4 positions +270, +250, +210, +100. The power of fundamental analysis.

Attached Image
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #282
  • Quote
  • Jan 22, 2015 8:13pm Jan 22, 2015 8:13pm
  •  heispark
  • Joined Apr 2011 | Status: Hoc Etiam Transibit.... | 5,027 Posts
Quoting Direwolf
Disliked
Hi Heispark. Thank you for dropping by Good to see you to mate! I'm doing well. Very well. EUR/USD is off to a good start. I think I'm switching to daily or even weekly to watch this pair now. 4 positions +270, +250, +210, +100. The power of fundamental analysis. {image}
Ignored
Super Coool! Keep continue.....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
 
 
  • Post #283
  • Quote
  • Jan 22, 2015 10:17pm Jan 22, 2015 10:17pm
  •  nsn14
  • | Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Member | 129 Posts
Quoting Direwolf
Disliked
{quote} I'm with you mate. For the longest time, I have this strong believe that small risk big reward is not necessary if, IF, I win 98% of the time. In reality if 1 lose can set you back 3-4 winners, it makes losing such a painful experience, even if your win rate is pretty high entering a trade can still be quite stressful. {quote} Not exactly. Let's make an example. Say you risk $10 every trade. a) stop 100 pips, TP 200 pips, that's 2R meaning you make $20 at best right? b) stop 10 pips, TP 200 pips, that's 20R. You make $200. You can lose 15-16...
Ignored
Well explained post! Thanks Direwolf.

I spend sometime to go through Greame PipEasy's thread as well!

I currently follow his advise to get entry everyday targeted for 3x20pips before I closed down my trading platform for the day.
His method looks easy to us, enter only up when PA is above OPEN. Enter only sell if PA is below OPEN.

I also found a good Breakeven EA here: http://forex-strategies-revealed.com...iling-stop-eas
The one I found useful is No 4, where you can enter how many pips you want to get moved to BE.

Green pips, Direwolf!
 
 
  • Post #284
  • Quote
  • Jan 23, 2015 4:33am Jan 23, 2015 4:33am
  •  nsn14
  • | Joined Sep 2013 | Status: Member | 129 Posts
For last 3 days, all my 6 entries stop with BE, with 2 losses...and manage to get 1 profit legs (millipede?) build up !

Anyway, I found that the BreakevenEA cant be us for second trade in same chart. It means for second entry you have to monitor the trade and move to BE yourself! Direwolf do you have any idea?
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 BreakEvenExpert_v1.mq4   3 KB | 211 downloads
 
 
  • Post #285
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  • Jan 23, 2015 10:35am Jan 23, 2015 10:35am
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Thanks for sharing EA nsn14.

I'm taking my longer term trade on cTrader, it has an option to move stop to BE built-in Very convenient. However due to it's slow load speed, I keep the chart opened on it minimal, no more than 4-5 charts. Still monitor mainly on MT4 because it's lighting fast.

I closed my lowest position EUR/USD for 199 pips. Still holding the other 3 which are around 300 pips.
If price retrace and make any sign of resuming down move, I'll short it some more.
Ideally this is the level I'm watching. Quite a huge pull back but I think possible for a Friday night.
Attached Image
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #286
  • Quote
  • Jan 24, 2015 3:16am Jan 24, 2015 3:16am
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Anyone still holding EUR short, do pay attention to Greece election on Sunday.

If Syriza wins EUR may gap even further down. We may have a chance to short more when it retrace.

If not, EUR may recover a bit. We could take profit and look for next chance to short or simply hold it off and short more.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #287
  • Quote
  • Jan 25, 2015 8:29pm Jan 25, 2015 8:29pm
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Syriza wins. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30975437

Gaps closed on some pairs already. I'll see what happens around LO before I short more. Retrace probably won't be that deep, maybe around 1.13.
Attached Image
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #288
  • Quote
  • Jan 26, 2015 11:09pm Jan 26, 2015 11:09pm
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Pending was touched last night EUR/USD. Have 2 more higher up, not expecting them to be hit. Anyway this trade I set TP above 1.11 while the initial positions I'll hold them indefinitely.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

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Size: 14 KB
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #289
  • Quote
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:18am Jan 28, 2015 9:18am
  •  kingpips288
  • | Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Member | 32 Posts
Hi Direwolf,

Thanks for sharing. Very interesting thread by the way.

I can see that you entry are based on pure Price Action with no indicators. Have you tried to enter with TDI confirmation, eg. on H1, M30, M15?

King
 
 
  • Post #290
  • Quote
  • Jan 28, 2015 9:35pm Jan 28, 2015 9:35pm
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Hi Kingpips, thanks for dropping by I don't look at TDI when I enter trades like this, have a TMS chart floating around but haven't watched them much.

Nothing interesting so far. EUR/USD retrace and trigger my sell orders along the way. The new positions together are sitting around BE (+10 pips).
Attached Image


NZD/USD h1. Was expecting a hawkish FOMC and dovish RBNZ statement... result was as expected, except price didn't make it up to my pending order grr.
Attached Image


USD/CHF after I took profit at top of swing 170 pips I set pending for price to retest the low. However it took off without falling back down.
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USD/JPY is nice. Pending triggered at bottom of clear range with 20 pips stop. Now sitting at 70 pips, thinking I should take profit here and go do something else for the morning.
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Ok I took profit. A zoomed out view to show the range I played.
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EUR/AUD shorts currently -100. First entry was too soon, mistake on my part xD Anyway I think it may go up high to touch the pending sell order I have up there before it fall. Will hold and see.
Attached Image


That's about all the trades I have since last update. Only USD/JPY was quick. Others I'm giving them all the time they want.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #291
  • Quote
  • Jan 31, 2015 1:06pm Jan 31, 2015 1:06pm
  •  bodring
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 59 Posts
Great trades. Keep posting your trades, I learn a lot from them. I have a question:
Do u leave your losing trades and pending orders open on news time?

Thanks for the answer.
 
 
  • Post #292
  • Quote
  • Feb 1, 2015 3:10am Feb 1, 2015 3:10am
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Hi Bodring.

When it comes to news, I only set pending and/or enter ahead of time only the ones I have a clear bias. For example ECB, I was 100% expecting QE and was listening to the statement to see the actual amount they're going to introduced. When that number came out higher than expectation I short EUR even more.

Anyway what's more important is how you control your risk. When you see I enter multiple position, I was not doubling/tripling my risk. I spread out my lots so that all positions together would combined into 1R. Once I got that to BE I will enter more trades keeping them 1R as well and the steps repeat over and over.

So when I entered EUR/USD ahead of Draghi's speech, the initial position was only 1/2 R. Once Draghi said the QE would be 60 billion, I entered another 1/2R. Once those are nicely in green and got their stops moved to BE I would enter more along the way using the same idea.

I hope that answers your question
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #293
  • Quote
  • Feb 2, 2015 10:50pm Feb 2, 2015 10:50pm
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
RBA cut rate by 0.25%. Silly me I got carried away eating breakfast and forgot I wanted to listen to the statement lol.

Anyway short term I'm hoping to short from around this area. Will see where price is around LO.
Attached Image


Long term I'm looking for a much deeper retrace.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: 2015-02-03_1047.png
Size: 19 KB


I don't think the drop would be real drastic as the rate cut was smaller than I expected. Long term it may fall lower but it will be slow and bumpy.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #294
  • Quote
  • Feb 5, 2015 1:19am Feb 5, 2015 1:19am
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
My attempt to buy low sell high haven't given me anything exciting these past few weeks. Mostly BE, only AUD/JPY gave me around ~3R.
Attached Images
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #295
  • Quote
  • Feb 10, 2015 8:44pm Feb 10, 2015 8:44pm
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
Only 2 pending got triggered during the last couple days, luckily both made profit. Nothing fancy just pending at top/bottom of range.

EUR/USD was good. Stop 12 pips, TP 60. 5R. The unlabeled one was AUD/USD h1, closed manually at 2R.

Have a sell pending for top range of NZD/USD too but doesn't look like it'd get trigger anytime soon.
Attached Images
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #296
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2015 1:40am Feb 11, 2015 1:40am
  •  bodring
  • | Joined Jun 2014 | Status: Member | 59 Posts
Great trades. Can u explain the long on EUR/USD? Thanks.
 
 
  • Post #297
  • Quote
  • Feb 11, 2015 3:40am Feb 11, 2015 3:40am
  •  Direwolf
  • Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Member | 879 Posts
I was simply looking for good level to "buy low" and thought the that bottom to the left looks like a good level. If you zoom out even more you'll see price bounced off that zone many times. Same with AUD/USD, I was simply looking for good level to "sell high"
Attached Image
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
 
 
  • Post #298
  • Quote
  • Feb 14, 2015 9:04pm Feb 14, 2015 9:04pm
  •  nods80
  • Joined Nov 2014 | Status: Member | 591 Posts
Great thread, I'm subscribed. You seem to have changed your strategy though?
Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change. Stephen Hawking
 
 
  • Post #299
  • Quote
  • Mar 18, 2015 5:02pm Mar 18, 2015 5:02pm
  •  awcharts
  • | Joined Oct 2014 | Status: Member | 353 Posts
This thread has been very helpful. Thanks to you direwolf, my consistency has improved a great deal. Since I am still struggling with the take profit level, I seek any ideas or advice. Right now, I am able to use the one hour chart and make 20 pips on every trade more than 95% of the time. I mainly consider daily pivot, the true TMA area mentioned and daily ADR and choose the safest take profit level. But more often than not, these pairs go on and continue in the correct direction that much more. I know the answer is to move on to H4 or daily chart if I desire more pips but I am always worried about counter moves if I miss read the charts on the larger time frame. How do you guys deal with this. Please educate or share your experiences.
 
 
  • Post #300
  • Quote
  • Feb 24, 2016 10:06am Feb 24, 2016 10:06am
  •  farismz
  • | Joined Sep 2015 | Status: Member | 5 Posts
Quoting Direwolf
Disliked
TDI & Me TDI Green crossing Red is the main signal of TMS. However as you might have guessed, if you blindly enter every cross, you're going to lose a lot of money. {image} From the chart above, only 1 out of 5 crosses was profitable. 4 losers! Not too appealing eh. How can we prevent the other 4? We first need to know what a good cross is. And to know what a good cross is, you have to understand TDI. This used to be such a mystery to me. It was Gil's guidance that showed me the answer and many more. Thank you Gil. TDI Dean Malone, the creator of...
Ignored
Very detail & Great explanation on how to avoid loser trade,. TQ
 
 
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