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  • #956,281
  • Jan 31, 2015 10:50am Jan 31, 2015 10:50am
EU almost forming bat pattern, but hold at 1273 may broke the setup. break on 1273, positive to 1195

edit: 47/32/18 will be possible buyer to brake the bear
edit2: well, 1195 is another critical level, either break to 1136 or make a rally toward 1432/40/49/70
  • #956,282
  • Jan 31, 2015 11:35am Jan 31, 2015 11:35am
^with the expected manufacturing numbers on Monday?
  • #956,283
  • Edited 12:33pm Jan 31, 2015 12:13pm | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well like gator said a few hours ago: 2500 pip down in 8 months. You dont need indies to see that. Sure, it cant last forever if the fundamentals of world trade is to remain, but we got to at least see a bull monthly candle before we can say its starting to be bought. I mean that i think the only way to trade is to trade what is actually THERE, what is happening. You could say its not really prediction per se its more like catching the correct train at the correct station.
oh ok you too like the trains...y, to get the good Train is not easy matter, sometimes he comes hours in retard, sometimes he simply get derailed without any immediatly expected reason, and changed the destination...whatever they say, i still think the trains are more secured than miguel's flies/moon rockets. if the train crash you can survive, if the moon rocket crash you DEad...there is always more slots(oxygen) for people in the train than moon rocket...
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  • #956,284
  • Jan 31, 2015 12:50pm Jan 31, 2015 12:50pm
COT report
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Enter Signature
  • #956,285
  • Edited 1:56pm Jan 31, 2015 1:43pm | Edited 1:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
1288.5. 2 pips above 1276... now lets see what NY does.. i almost smell gap down sunday
Greece gave their nutkick after London.. i would almost bet my left nut we gap down tomorrow before 5est open... and a gap down will make the close Friday slightly above 1276, much less powerful and maybe a null anomaly. personally if we open below 1276.. i will give it the same respect/importance as if we closed below. if so, my money will be even stronger toward 1196. even then, if we went to 1320/67 once again before, its not out of normal. but the 1276/85 area may bot allow this again. no way to know for sure.. admittedly some norms are at 1320 and 134x.. long wick spikes to these and closes below 1276 are probably rejections. a 1260 print has a good chance of testing the 109x low.... in that case 1260 usually gets another or 2 more visits. one before and another after a LL and a 1077 target roughly (more tweaking to follow as needed)
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #956,286
  • Jan 31, 2015 2:19pm Jan 31, 2015 2:19pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} oh ok you too like the trains...y, to get the good Train is not easy matter, sometimes he comes hours in retard, sometimes he simply get derailed without any immediatly expected reason, and changed the destination...whatever they say, i still think the trains are more secured than miguel's flies/moon rockets. if the train crash you can survive, if the moon rocket crash you DEad...there is always more slots(oxygen) for people in the train than moon rocket... {image}
Something to think about my friend.
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Lookie D1

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  • #956,287
  • Jan 31, 2015 2:37pm Jan 31, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} In the case of Germany, we are going to lose around 700 bln. Euros. By 'we', I mean the German people. That's our savings, taxes and so on. At the moment, there aren't too many who are aware of that. From my point of view, the Greek are doing the absolutely right thing by asking the question, "What kind of EZ do we want to live in?" If the answer is a mere obedience to banks and money, no matter if cultures, generations, societies get destroyed in the cause of this obiedience , you'll see fireworks. Fireworks it will be nevertheless, because...
You are a sensible person it seems. I think that if families, cultures, societies gets destroyed, the big wigs wont have much left to play with. You might think i put this bluntly but: Fascism just isnt a stable form of government. It has never been. A parliamentary democrazy, such as US and europe had in say the 1960s and 1970s is slow and cumbersome, but it is more stable.

What of this Hans-Werner Sinn? He was pro EU and now anti or what? Also: Who is he?

I am very much interested in the pro or anti EU sentiment in Germany, its a VERY crucial topic for the future of EZ. Initiatives such as UKIP and Vafanculo i think will come to Germany in the months to come, but i know little of the situation.
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  • #956,288
  • Jan 31, 2015 3:45pm Jan 31, 2015 3:45pm
After such a drop we should see a consolidation zone
  • #956,289
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:01pm Jan 31, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting yaed
I am very much interested in the pro or anti EU sentiment in Germany, its a VERY crucial topic for the future of EZ. Initiatives such as UKIP and Vafanculo i think will come to Germany in the months to come, but i know little of the situation.
Depends on who you are asking. My take is: the sentiment is still very much pro-EU, in the establishment that goes without saying, but in the general populace as well. But there is growing irritation about the crisis-policy. With this going into the 6th year (or so...), there is still no end in sight, and I guess what is most desired is stability. Common sense and matter of fact-ideas (Realpolitik) usually goes a long way in german politics, and this is why all this austerity-stuff, balanced accounts, and so on is popular. It's an easy to explain concept.
We have a grand coalition, with an overwhelming majority in the Bundestag, so no real opposition. The ones stirring up the stew are the new 'Alternative fuer Deutschland', a strange mixture of homeless liberals, neglected conservatives, economists and tin-foil-hat-weirdos. Their appeal is great because of the great consensus in government and media about what's right and wrong. It will be interesting to see if they manage to drag the conservatives to a more 'german-interest' guided policy, but still elections in Germany are won in the middle, and there Ms. Merkel is very strong.

Contrary to what I read in the international press there is no big sense of german leadership in the EU. The feeling here seems more to be that Germany doesn't have the influence in the EU it should or could have with 25% of the population of the Eurozone, 16% of the EU. And that we do what we can.
So the one real danger I see is that at some time Germans will be disappointed by the european project, by getting the blame for either wielding too much or not enough power, etc. That wouldn't be a good thing. Germany hasn't had a national interest-guided policy for a long time, since the inception of the EC it was a principle to do everything in co-operaton with partners. If this changes, the EU will change.
Fail better.
  • #956,290
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:11pm Jan 31, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Greece gave their nutkick after London.. i would almost bet my left nut we gap down tomorrow before 5est open... and a gap down will make the close Friday slightly above 1276, much less powerful and maybe a null anomaly. personally if we open below 1276.. i will give it the same respect/importance as if we closed below. if so, my money will be even stronger toward 1196. even then, if we went to 1320/67 once again before, its not out of normal. but the 1276/85 area may bot allow this again. no way to know for sure.. admittedly some norms...
yeah i wasn't here yesterday so and i missed/didn't expected the wtf spike that happened just an hour before the week close...
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  • #956,291
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:31pm Jan 31, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Depends on who you are asking. My take is: the sentiment is still very much pro-EU, in the establishment that goes without saying, but in the general populace as well. But there is growing irritation about the crisis-policy. With this going into the 6th year (or so...), there is still no end in sight, and I guess what is most desired is stability. Common sense and matter of fact-ideas (Realpolitik) usually goes a long way in german politics, and this is why all this austerity-stuff, balanced accounts, and so on is popular. It's an easy to...
Well i think there are a movement across europe popping up here and there, voices saying: "The EU project is headed for dissaster." I think so too. From the beginning it was a innocent, sort of smart project: Get rid of customs fees for trade between memberstate countries. Now half the laws of memberstates are made by unelected, uknown people, often behind closed doors. The thing that seems illogical to me is the big difference in how the memberstates economies function, how the governments are run and so on. Having the same currency is a super bad idea from the powermongers who wants to centralize power to themselves.

Well, like Max Weber talked about more then a hundred years ago: All administrations grow over time. There are more and more rules made and more and more people to make others follow the rules.

Sooner or later though, like Thomas Kuhn wrote in 1962: There is going to be a big paradigm shift. The current form of democrazy is about 100 years old, and thats WAY to old considering the changes in technology and volksgeist. (Not that Kuhn was talking about politics, but i think the thought matters still in that field).

In general, how you explained it was close to what i knew, about Merkel and the middle still strongest and so on.
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  • #956,292
  • Jan 31, 2015 5:02pm Jan 31, 2015 5:02pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} yeah i wasn't here yesterday so and i missed/didn't expected the wtf spike that happened just an hour before the week close... {image}
Looks like some stop hunting to me?
  • #956,293
  • Edited 5:46pm Jan 31, 2015 5:25pm | Edited 5:46pm
Quoting oski22
{quote} Looks like some stop hunting to me?
it can be both...but i have more tendancies to put sell limit at PP, as long as it holds the SL are supposed higher...it's a god dam fine entry point to try the Gap trading....they probably knew the Support was weak...just unclear/fishy up move, as the S became R...
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  • #956,294
  • Jan 31, 2015 5:48pm Jan 31, 2015 5:48pm
Greek PM seems to be changing his tune - first talking about writing half the debts off and now saying they'll honour the agreements.....to be honest its a bit arse about face. He's obviously had a number of upset phone calls from various EU leaders saying "WTF are you doing - markets are falling like a stone and everything we import is becoming more expensive.....make an announcement now to help settle things down you fool"

To be very honest - I am disgusted that a country thinks it can take a helping hand from a "friend" and then decide not to repay what they borrowed. I mean it's a matter of principle - You borrowed a pound off me, I want it back!

It's not just the German peoples money - its everyone in the EU that pitched in to keep them afloat. The fact that Greece has issues with corruption, tax evasion etc has got nothing to do with us. Thats a domestic issue they need to resolve to help fix their country!

Running a country is just like running a business (at least in terms of income and expenses). Cut back when income is low and invest when its high. They should be looking to analyse why their tax income has fallen etc and trying to make it attractive for business to setup there - In a nutshell they should first analyse what the bottleneck is and seek to alleviate that through whatever measures needed. Hire tax inspectors to track those tax evading and charge them double the tax evaded etc.....keep looking at the bottlenecks and eventually you end up with something stable but there will always be a bottleneck so keep analysing and solving the issues one by one.

These are things they can do without writing off debts and to be honest - they didn't need to try and win an election based on false hopes and thats exactly what they are because I can tell you one thing - I don't think us Brits will be letting them away with giving us back only half what we gave them - Syriza could have said to the people of Greece - we're gonna grow this country! We'll do our best to NEGOTIATE with the various friends in the EU that helped us out when we needed it. That might mean amending the terms etc. Also if they came up with a creditable plan to grow the country - get people to pay tax - get business to flow there etc etc - they might even be able to restructure their debts and get a better interest rate!

So many ways to skin a cat.......

Maybe I try to boil things down too much but this is just my simple way of looking at things.

I've got some shorts still on waiting to profit so hopefully this creates further uncertainty since Greek PM appears to be changing his tune which will only further cause confusion in the market. DOWN EURO DOWN!
  • #956,295
  • Jan 31, 2015 6:06pm Jan 31, 2015 6:06pm
A good outlook on next week EURUSD

http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-forecast-feb-2-6/
  • #956,296
  • Jan 31, 2015 6:17pm Jan 31, 2015 6:17pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
Sooo... are we about to finish the first 1.1100 and 1.1300 LAP?? {image} Original Post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...28#post8021428
I assume we shared more or less the same point of view at some point in time...I took the way up and now on-boarded to some more downside...wait and see like we say...
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  • #956,297
  • Edited 7:03pm Jan 31, 2015 6:52pm | Edited 7:03pm
Quoting fxtrader08
Greek PM seems to be changing his tune - first talking about writing half the debts off and now saying they'll honour the agreements.....to be honest its a bit arse about face. He's obviously had a number of upset phone calls from various EU leaders saying "WTF are you doing - markets are falling like a stone and everything we import is becoming more expensive.....make an announcement now to help settle things down you fool" To be very honest - I am disgusted that a country thinks it can take a helping hand from a "friend" and then decide not to...
the phone calls will come, especially from the ones proclaiming "Greece will never leave". just 3 short years ago. as time has gone on some of that is slipping, from the self righteous. few men with the leadership complex will admit failure, until there is no other options. and by then the subject will be changed and he will be pointing a finger in another direction like Greece. some shift in sentiment even if not the loudest atm is occurring. leaks in a roof start that way. and one sure thing is. if you dont fix the leak, it will grow. from the inception all of the ecb members have lied including Germany. even in the united states some regions are poorer then others and great conflict exist. the reason the u.s. has 2 senators from each state, rich or poor is to keep the peace. if not a larger richer state would make all the laws to its advantage. even with this a civil war broke out. a single county is hard enough to keep on the same page. a few dozen i will go out on a limb and say is much harder.

anyone know how many big/macs (BMA) the average German makes in a year (BMA substituted for a euro dollar )? not the average working German, the average, including all Germans compared to the same Greek average.. or the average Spaniard. If the average German is not satisfied with the amount of BMA he earns. why would a countries workers with a lesser BMA? and if the Germans are not satisfied, how long before he stops sharing his Big Mac? Even if he like Big Macs, I bet he craves wiener schnitzels...

we all know most political races are not decided by the voter. some party marches out the option they chose first, usually pushed by big money. and then the regular Joe gets to pick one of their options. so far those with the big money are choosing the " "Greece will never leave" candidates.. at least till one decides they can make more money with "the other way candidate" .. the Greeks have more options then most of us with a 2 party system...its kind of refreshing to see a democracy.. even if many think they are crazy or irresponsible. They have that option with freedom, the ecb and others seem to not want Greece to have a freedom button. anyone think the average Greek worker is satisfied with his BMA?
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  • #956,298
  • Jan 31, 2015 6:59pm Jan 31, 2015 6:59pm
There are few things you are missing here my friend. First of all sovereign countries are not like business. If a business don't have $100, then they don't have it. If a country don't have $100 and if they want they can print it. I completely agree with you on the issues brought Greece down to this point but the common people played by the rules in Greece did not do anything wrong and they are the one who is suffering now. The whole discussion of debt negotiation etc etc etc are to reduce the pain of 99.9% of Greece population who played by the rules not the corrupt politicians who got Greece to this point.
I side with the syriza on countries taking a hair cut. This will make things better for Greece and eventually for the other European countries (esp Germany) opposed to forcing Greece out, in that case the losses will be bigger.. Remember Germany is the biggest beneficiary of Euro, if Germans were still using individual currency Mark the value of Mark should have gone up to reflect Germany's increasing export hence making their exports less profitable.

Quoting fxtrader08
Greek PM seems to be changing his tune - ...............- I am disgusted that a country thinks it can take a helping hand from a "friend" and then decide not to repay what they borrowed. I mean it's a matter of principle - You borrowed a pound off me, I want it back! It's not just the German peoples money - its everyone in the EU that pitched in to keep them afloat. The fact that Greece has issues with corruption, tax evasion etc has got nothing to do with us. Thats a domestic issue they need to resolve to help fix their country! Running a country...
  • #956,299
  • Jan 31, 2015 7:07pm Jan 31, 2015 7:07pm
Quoting Xxavier
There are few things you are missing here my friend. First of all sovereign countries are not like business. If a business don't have $100, then they don't have it. If a country don't have $100 and if they want they can print it. I completely agree with you on the issues brought Greece down to this point but the common people played by the rules in Greece did not do anything wrong and they are the one who is suffering now. The whole discussion of debt negotiation etc etc etc are to reduce the pain of 99.9% of Greece population who played by the...
As I said - it's my boiled down view - if we take the currency printing option out of the equation which could risk inflation rising too fast we really are just looking at a company with a big balance sheet with assets (infrastructure, cash etc) and debts (bailout money etc) and income statement (tax revenues, staff costs etc) - line by line analysis will do the job I think but hey ho, I'm just a boring accountant, not an economist!

Focus on getting income up - costs down including borrowing costs and it should all be ticking along nicely. If only life was so simple.
  • #956,300
  • Edited 7:31pm Jan 31, 2015 7:19pm | Edited 7:31pm
I understood your point but its not that simple. You cannot take the currency printing option out of the equation...Read about Japan's economy, they have been suffering for the past 25 years (no growth). Everything they tried for the past 25 years didn't work so now the new Abe government committed to print unlimited amount of money to boost the economy.
Quoting fxtrader08
{quote} As I said - it's my boiled down view - if we take the currency printing option out of the equation which could risk inflation rising too fast we really are just looking at a company with a big balance sheet with assets (infrastructure, cash etc) and debts (bailout money etc) and income statement (tax revenues, staff costs etc) - line by line analysis will do the job I think but hey ho, I'm just a boring accountant, not an economist! Focus on getting income up - costs down including borrowing costs and it should all be ticking along nicely....
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