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Trading is as simple as ABCD

  • #3,641
  • Jan 29, 2015 12:38pm Jan 29, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting skyway
{quote} I am trying to identify such high probability set up with exact specification from screening so many pairs. Thats the challenge.
Just follow the same charts as Mr V then he will not surprise you when he makes a post with a trade on, when you get good you may even pre-empt him, then if he posts, your bang on then , or even drop down to couple of your own fav's, me I only trade GBP/USD can keep the wolf from the door with just that one, most days 100+pip range
  • #3,642
  • Jan 29, 2015 1:40pm Jan 29, 2015 1:40pm
dave trade this little trend buddy

http://www.skype.com/en/download-sky...-for-computer/
  • #3,643
  • Jan 29, 2015 11:03pm Jan 29, 2015 11:03pm
Quoting devontrader
{quote} fair points vantage,,,,reading yours and daves comments i guess i especially and maybe all should be just greatful to have a method that works and gives you green pips. dont look for that instant reversal point to jump in but wait for the retest,,,eg the abc move and manage your position. i guess from that comment im thinking,,,,so how can i allow this trade to run on,,,,i guess we allhave our own ideas to let the trade run and run,,,but at least we all have a simple base method to work from
Ok its a short month and there have been some days where I haven't traded at all, still today to come (but Fri mornings on previous methods weren't a preferred time to trade) but if I give it a miss will finish the month with 1 negative trade from 15 (there were a couple of small positive's that were really BE's) and around +38% with 3% risk per trade. I'll take this but anything above 66% positive trades is fantastic on this method. Why's that? Losses are small typically 15 pips or lower and the pairs focused on give much longer runs than that especially if the first system trade after LO follows through.

What I'm trying to say, you don't need a method that gets everything (the fact that there isn't one is a big help here however people waste so much time looking for it) but simply as you say a method that works. You also don't need to trade 50 times a day.

As discussed several times, I do 2 things to tweak Clive's system. I want some confirmation from other pairs (charts or TT list) to prove strength/weakness is broader based, if thats the case I'll consider trades where the cci -100+100 hasn't been hit (but so often that rule does occur). The system is there just work on it for a while and see how you do, a new month is around the corner. That also means taking NO none system trades no matter how strongly you feel. You might be surprised at the results.
  • #3,644
  • Jan 30, 2015 7:36am Jan 30, 2015 7:36am
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Ok its a short month and there have been some days where I haven't traded at all, still today to come (but Fri mornings on previous methods weren't a preferred time to trade) but if I give it a miss will finish the month with 1 negative trade from 15 (there were a couple of small positive's that were really BE's) and around +38% with 3% risk per trade. I'll take this but anything above 66% positive trades is fantastic on this method. Why's that? Losses are small typically 15 pips or lower and the pairs focused on give much longer runs than...
Great results Mr V. I have been in lurker mode recently but have enjoyed your posts. I will be trading ABCD on a small live account from next week. I look forward to posting and hopefully your critique on my trades.
  • #3,645
  • Jan 30, 2015 12:17pm Jan 30, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting Vantage
{quote} Ok its a short month and there have been some days where I haven't traded at all, still today to come (but Fri mornings on previous methods weren't a preferred time to trade) but if I give it a miss will finish the month with 1 negative trade from 15 (there were a couple of small positive's that were really BE's) and around +38% with 3% risk per trade. I'll take this but anything above 66% positive trades is fantastic on this method. Why's that? Losses are small typically 15 pips or lower and the pairs focused on give much longer runs than...

Hi Mr V.

Great results my friend...

I'm in total agreement with you in being a little more selective on our trades. I'm thinking let the actual open past then look for a top trender to appear in particular if theres some common strength or weakness across a particular currency. Especially the GBP pairs.

I particularly agree with your 2nd to last post when you mention break and retest entries.. With a strong trender they are definately the way to go. Quick break of a level retest that level and away you go...

Theres something else I'm tinkering again too, our old friend the "Hirenko" charts....

Have a look at these GBPAUD charts from today , strong trender, CCI and Hirenko bars work together awesome...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strong trenders and hirenkos.png Size: 71 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: strong trend hirenko.png Size: 75 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM2.png Size: 64 KB


The more I think about it the more Hirenkos make sense, after all my theory is it can only go up or down and what better way of showing that then Hirenko bars, makes perfect sense....

Gonna look into this a bit more.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,646
  • Jan 30, 2015 12:41pm Jan 30, 2015 12:41pm
Even now at this time of night a strong trender number two in TTindy and 6 winners....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCHFM2.png Size: 77 KB



Hmmm I'm really gonna look into this Monday....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,647
  • Jan 30, 2015 12:46pm Jan 30, 2015 12:46pm
Looks can be deceiving though , look at GBPCHF's actual chart and its untradable so our Hirenkos could be making it look too easy...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfm1.png Size: 68 KB


Maybe not quite as simple as it first looked....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,648
  • Jan 30, 2015 4:26pm Jan 30, 2015 4:26pm
You must remind some of us how to put hirenko onfo charts
  • #3,649
  • Jan 31, 2015 2:21am Jan 31, 2015 2:21am
Quoting devontrader
You must remind some of us how to put hirenko onfo charts

Here you go template an ea that generates the Hirenko charts but have a look at the last example the Hirenko chart looks great to trade but in real time it would of been impossible as it would of been printing 3 or 4 candles per minute or faster so would of been impossible to trade in real time.

For that reason I'm thinking use the Hirenko charts for the signals then enter off of the 1 minute charts, just have to see how it goes "live" these Hirenkos look great looking back but theres gonna be times when its all happening far too fast to trade....

Might be as well to avoid CHF pairs for a while until things return to normal....

System same as ever find a strong trender identified by a steep sloping 100lwma then use Hirenko charts and CCI to identify ABCD moves back in direction of trend...
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl Renko and HA FXCM.tpl   250 KB | 434 downloads
File Type: ex4 RenkoLiveChart_v3.4.ex4   12 KB | 389 downloads
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,650
  • Jan 31, 2015 2:48am Jan 31, 2015 2:48am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Here you go template an ea that generates the Hirenko charts but have a look at the last example the Hirenko chart looks great to trade but in real time it would of been impossible as it would of been printing 3 or 4 candles per minute or faster so would of been impossible to trade in real time. For that reason I'm thinking use the Hirenko charts for the signals then enter off of the 1 minute charts, just have to see how it goes "live" these Hirenkos look great looking back but theres gonna be times when its all happening far too...
lol i was thinking along the same line hence asking how to put hirenko on charts
  • #3,651
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:05am Jan 31, 2015 4:05am
Been spending sometime looking into these Hirenko charts and I'm starting to think theres something in them worth experimenting with , I think I will always confirm their signals off of a 1 min chart but when you think about my basic premise is that price can only go up or down and the actual time it takes is irrelevant. hence I trade 1 mins because we are all trading the same price action no matter what chart we look for our signals from....

Have a look at these two GBPAUD charts they are the identical signals just one is a normal chart and the other Hirenko chart...

The secret is the strong trend of course but the better looking clearer CCI signals and the resulting ABCD moves come off of the Hirenko plus it also gives us a very clear exit strategy too, either change of Hirenko colour or the 100 lwma changing colour...so maybe its even dealing with our age old hold or fold quandary??? Basically hold whilst its going down and soon as it turns up bank...

If you want to trade the whole down trend move then use the 100lwma as an exit if we had taken these 3 trades and held until 100lwma you're looking at around 90 + 80 + 35 = 205 pips in about an hour...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM1normal chart.png Size: 74 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDM2 Hirenko.png Size: 68 KB



Now as I'm sure you're all aware if you've been here on a regular basis I have recently started a new job which has prevented me from trading but as from Monday next week I'm carving myself out 2 windows of opportunity, just after the LO and NYO so I can have a quick look at the charts and see whats going on..
I'll be looking for a top trender and if I like it I'll trade it. I'll be looking to catch the London or New York breakout trade off of the 1 minute charts.

This is my original strategy for this system , I'm waiting for the money to appear then just follow it, so I won't be looking at higher timeframes whatsoever. Pure and simple , follow the money....by trading the strongest one minute trenders...

Ok so heres what I'm going to do from next week to try this out.

 

  1. The Time of Day..

    Wait for LO and NYO to pass including any major news release, then look for the top 4 trenders on the TTindy. I'm sticking to the original strategy of trying to catch the London or New York breakout trade off of the 1 minute chart. Just following the money as it comes to the table.
  2. Strong/Weak currency across the board.

    I'll also be following Mr V.'s lead in looking for some strength or weakness in one currency, this is to identify where the money is actually going.
  3. Use Hirenko Charts to identify the ABCD moves.

    These Hirenko charts, set to 3, show up the ABCD moves so much clearer than normal candles for me. After all if I have a strong trend all I want to know is when is it resuming.
  4. Use CCI for my entry signals.

    Just look at the CCI signals above signaling nice and early that we have a possible reversal back with the trend. The CCI will signal before the Hirenkos change colour in most cases so giving us a chance to place our pending orders.
  5. Use pending orders for entry..

    What I am realising is these Hirenko bars move fast and what looks like a nice controlled move on Hirenko in hindsight, but in real time its fast so I'll be placing pending orders on my 1 min chart 2 pips below/above last candle once the CCI starts to signal so that I can catch the sudden moves.
  6. Exit choices..

    Ok when it comes to exit I'm looking at one of two options either, as soon as I get a Hirenko candle against the trend then I'm out or hold until the 100lwma changes slope. Going to play around with these over next few weeks see how it pans out..


Well thats it guys I'm just testing this out see if I can fit it around my work commitments and also just looking for one good move per session so to summarize.

The strategy is simple , look to follow the money just after the LO and NYO trying to catch the strongest trending 1 minute trends, using Hirenko charts and CCI signals to identify the ABCD moves back with the trend. EG the London/New York breakout trades...

Wish me luck...

Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,652
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:12am Jan 31, 2015 4:12am
Hi Guys, Its Marmite here (you either love me or hate me no in between) Its the weekend so a little light relief needed, dug this out of my collection of trading stuff, never no if any body bothers to look (Armstrong Blog) any way try this and then tell me if you think the guy is right or wrong ?

http://vimeo.com/54482568 Steve Mauro Market Maker 3.0
  • #3,653
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:17am Jan 31, 2015 4:17am
GOOD LUCK, Clive!!
  • #3,654
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:35am Jan 31, 2015 4:35am
Quoting Go5
GOOD LUCK, Clive!!

Thanks Go5

I'm going back to my grass routes here and what I originally set out to do with my system. Follow the money and capture the LO and NYO breakouts. Simple as that, which is why I don't need higher timeframes whatsoever.....

Just gonna trade the strongest trending 1 minute trends just after the opens..

Just looking for one opportunity per session...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,655
  • Jan 31, 2015 4:52am Jan 31, 2015 4:52am
Quoting clivepackham
Looks can be deceiving though , look at GBPCHF's actual chart and its untradable so our Hirenkos could be making it look too easy... {image} Maybe not quite as simple as it first looked....
This will be the most difficult thing for you. The Harenko charts make it look obvious in hindsight. When you look at your actual M1 chart, you see some very long candles though. This means that the Harenko chart printed several bars in one direction so fast, you would not have had time to react. They look great in hindsight, but print very differently when the price changes quickly. They sure look good though!
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
  • #3,656
  • Jan 31, 2015 5:28am Jan 31, 2015 5:28am
Quoting capstone
{quote} This will be the most difficult thing for you. The Harenko charts make it look obvious in hindsight. When you look at your actual M1 chart, you see some very long candles though. This means that the Harenko chart printed several bars in one direction so fast, you would not have had time to react. They look great in hindsight, but print very differently when the price changes quickly. They sure look good though!
Hi Cappers

How you doing my main man????? Hows things in the Land of Hope and Glory???

Yep hear what you're saying and you are spot on of course but also more often than not they setup really well as per my last post so I will be dropping down to my 1 min for confirmation of entry. If I saw a mess like the GBPCHF example previously then obviously I will leave it well alone.

My plan is to take signals from Harenkos confirmation on 1 min chart...

The other thing though is I'm reducing the time I'm looking at my charts to just after the actual opens and I'm only looking for one opportunity per session...

Thats going to make a massive difference to my performance I'm sure..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,657
  • Jan 31, 2015 7:19am Jan 31, 2015 7:19am
Quoting OAPDave
Hi Guys, Its Marmite here (you either love me or hate me no in between) Its the weekend so a little light relief needed, dug this out of my collection of trading stuff, never no if any body bothers to look (Armstrong Blog) any way try this and then tell me if you think the guy is right or wrong ? http://vimeo.com/54482568 Steve Mauro Market Maker 3.0

Hi Dave

Just watched your video and to answer your question he's sort of right and sort of wrong IMHO...

The moves he describes as "marketmaker" moves are in fact "The Market" thats exactly how the market works.. What he describes is the big boys filling their orders because as he says for every deal there has to be someone the other side but the problem for the big boys is liquidity. Therefore they have to identify levels on the chart where they can expect traders to eagerly take the opposite side of their massive orders that they need to fill.

Thats all it is, its not some dastardly plan by "marketmakers" to rob you or me of our hard earned cash. His theory also falls down as theres not one marketmaker big enough to push the market around they way he describes it..Just doesn't happen its just "The Market" at work not some mystical massive organisation as he describes.

But I'm sure he's devised a trading plan around that process, where he's going to trade in the direction of the bigger traders...

However you need to ask yourself a couple of questions when you watch something like that..

Why?? If he's discovered the secret of successful trading does he not just trade it and make his fortune that way?? Why bother to go to all the trouble of selling training courses online???

If anyone is interested in purchasing such a course the first thing I would do is ask him to demonstrate it in "real time" so you can watch him trade it yourself and witness the brilliance of it all in real time.. But ask that question and you will be giving a hundred reasons why he can't do that, hasn't got the time: can't concentrate ; doesn't setup everyday blah blah blah.....

I've yet to find a trading trainer who can show you in "real time" how good his system is...

The one thing that I do agree with him 100% is the moves, trends between the consolidation areas that he refers to they are as real as the nose on your face and they are the moves that I'm after. Everyone of those moves the 100lwma will be sloping steeply so presenting us with a chance to jump on board..

That is what my system is all about trading the big money as it comes to the table, afterall its the money that moves these markets nothing else just the money, plus both myself and others here like Mr V. and Go5 have taken trades in "real time" and made pips. 100's of pips some days so if you're looking for that holy grail you're in luck.

Its here right under your nose.....only trouble is you're going to have to trade it to make it work for yourself..

PS . Can't stand Marmite but you're not too bad....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #3,658
  • Jan 31, 2015 7:24am Jan 31, 2015 7:24am
Quoting clivepackham
I carry out a review of my days tradinghttp://cdncache-a.akamaihd.net/items...rrow-10x10.png...
Hi Clive.
I missed this post! Geez getting old. Not true Mr C. You have a hell of a lot of followers, you just don't know about them. I think I'm the leader of the gang!!
Don't short change yourself. A lot of us are looking up to you and Mr V and a few others!
So stop fishing for compliments (joke!) and keep up the excellent work.

Rgds
Pieter
JHB
South Africa
  • #3,659
  • Jan 31, 2015 11:25pm Jan 31, 2015 11:25pm
Hello to all.

It will be possible to put in attachment the whole system with indicators templates and so on?

Thanks in advance.
  • #3,660
  • Feb 1, 2015 5:28am Feb 1, 2015 5:28am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Cappers How you doing my main man????? Hows things in the Land of Hope and Glory???
I'm doing alright. I had a good week last week. Started to see things with a little more clarity. Now I need to repeat it! Feeling good about it though.

Land of hope and glory? Where is that??
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
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