Trading is as simple as ABCD

Hi Mary

Yep thats it I'm going to trade exactly that way from now on , probably won't work but thats the way of it, but when I catch one it will be nice, still orphan grabbing but will be looking to hold the ABCD move when it breaks B as discussed above...

Will answer your PM later...

Thanks, Clive! Best of luck with the new plan!

And we're off!!!!

Not convinced it was going to go so trailed upto point B and it gave me 3.2 pips better than nothing and thats my exit plan now if it breaks B then trail up behind it , if it goes great but if it comes back I get something out of it all.

Not sure EURNZD is the best pair to try it on???

Also not sure that I should be even looking just before FO as its a bit like trading 10 mins before news release, it could fly either way at the drop of a hat...The whole strategy is based on following the money as it comes to the table at market opens so makes sense to let them get some money on the table and see whats going where. better to wait a bit and then have a look whats trending strongly on 1 minute then jump on board and enjoy the ride...

Hmmm looks like my EURNZD is carrying on down.... Oh well there be another one along shortly...

Right now its looking like some AUD strength across the board according to my Ttindy and my CSM so either EURAUD or GBPAUD ???







Gonna wait for a pullback and lets see how they setup???

Gonna hold off a bit due to FO but looking at entering around the 1.4450 level around todays open(green line) and the 100lwma qwill be lurking nearby with any luc. Of course theres every chance it will go without me but I like a key level to tuck my stop behind...

Theres also a big level at 1.4439 (red line) where theres been plenty of support in the past so would like it to take a couple of steps back get some momentum up and charge straight through...

Had an interesting day yesterday when I tried out something from DNA's thread where instead of placing stops you place an opposite order so hedging in say a 20 pip loss instead of taking a loss... Well thought I'd give it a go and as you can imagine got myself into all sorts of trouble, one minute selling then it went the other way so buying until eventually I found myself over about 13 % down with trades all over the place. Then I thought, hold on whats going on here??? I'm taking trade after trade on every little swing. Lets think about this a bit

So I sat back and watched, you know it really is amazing how price continually waves up and down going back over old ground time after time before moving on one way or the other...

So I started to apply a bit more logic to it all as I had several hedged positions on 3 seperate pairs... GBPNZD GBPAUD abd GBPJPY totallying about 1300 pips...

Then it dawned on me all I have to do is wait, wait for the pairs to come to the top of my TTindy and then work the hedges off bit by bit. Well it took all day yesterday but eventually I got myself out of them all and found I had some good positions so let them run a bit and eventually I closed the lot out for about a 630 pip gain or 6.3%. Some never came back like GBPAUD but others like GBPJPY more than made up for it so when I closed out everything I had a positive result.

Now this makes me think, do I ever have to take a loss again??? Can I by hedging, instead of stopping myself out, just wait for the right time and work the hedges off?? Hmmm interesting I'm even thinking perhaps me and Ted could come up with a little EA that did what I did yesterday and when a trade goes against you just drop it on and forget about it until it unties itself. Basically you always have a bias on your hedge so one side out wieghs the other and as long as it goes one way far enough an equilibrium is reached and it close it all out...

Of course the other argument is as Ted keeps telling me, theres no point take your 10 pip loss then instead of waiting around for that pair to come back into the top of the TTindy just go and get your 10 pips from the top pair at the time. His argument is all you're doing by constantly hedging is adding the spread say 3 pips extra to get rid of, Whereas if you take your 10 pip stop then all you've got is that 10 pips to get back....

However its the psychological aspect isn't it??? If you thought you were never gonna lose again because of the hedging EA wouldn't give your trading an awesome lift????

Hmmm food for thought as usual...

Great reversal setup here on GBPAUD top of 1 min and 5 min but opposite colours, hopefully will hold this until lwma changes colour, will let you know how it goes...

A good way to use my TTindy is to have a look just after a big news release today to see which pair is moving the strongest then look for a trade. What I call my post news trade. Need to wait till things have settled down a bit then have a look whoose strongest trender is....

So cup of tea first then lets have a look whats going on???

GBPCAD top of TTindy so lets try and get something to stick??? Needs to break 1.7950 might be ok then...

I carry out a review of my days trading at the end of every day and adjust my strategy accordingly which has led to many changes and modifications throughout this thread but I feel I'm getting ever closer to a really good effective and most importantly profitable strategy. I also review my weeks trading at the weekend seeing how effective the changes have been and dropping some ideas and installing some new ones ready for the forth coming week.

This leads to some pretty long winded posts over the weekend and this is probably going to be no different I'm afraid. Why do I do it??? Why do I keep posting my thoughts and changes?? Doesn't seem to be too many guys following me apart from a few die hards like Mr V and Capstone, so its not for my army of followers is it?? No its not. Its for me. I like to get down my thoughts and changes recorded somewhere so I can refer back and see whats changed plus it helps me with the coming week to ensure I at least start the week with the new modifications.

Also its great to just write it all down and clarify my own thoughts too, so here goes, what am I trading next week???

Well here's how I see it right now....

Using the TTindy to maximise trading opportunities.

I'm only now , starting to realise just how powerful our little TTindy really is. Its absolutely instrumental in the success of this strategy. In fact I'd go as far as to say almost any strategy out there should use it as their first filter, as it ensures you're trading with the strongest trending pairs only and that to me means everything as everything else just falls into place. For instance, Indicators are effective 70% of the time, price action follows through perfectly , you can enter and go to BE quickly because price just flys away from your entry, even bad entries are turned into good ones and finally the RR's are far better because you get bigger winners. I'm basically scalping the 1 minute yet getting some really nice size winners. Far bigger than most 1 minute traders, I regularly get 10+ pips and often much much more. Take Monday for instance, 676 pips from a 1 minute chart??? Ridiculous RR's!!

All because I follow the strongest trenders. Its as simple as that guys. No matter what timeframe you trade just make sure you're trading the strongest trenders. Even if you only want to trade a certain pair , only trade it when its a top trender.

Simple continuation trades.

Well on top of that simple use of the TTindy theres a couple of more ways it can be used too. Firstly lets clear up the main one, quite simply trade with the top 4 pairs only in the direction of the trend, what I call a continuation trade. Identify a solid AB move which has probably bought it to the top of the TTindy then wait for a nice clean pullback to a key level wait for CCI to go over +/-100 and turn back down then place a pending order and away you go...

Identifying the London Breakout Trade or the session runner..

The other way to use it is to try and identify a possible runner or the London Breakout trade. Nearly every session will have at least one if not more pairs that will run 100 plus pips or more, like my GBPJPY move Monday. Monday was an amazing day as it actually had 9 runners(see post 2159) that morning so not surprising that I caught one really is it?? When all 4 top trenders setup together its hard to know which one to jump on and which one is going to just keep going all morning , like my GBPJPY trade on Monday. We need to find as many of them London Breakouts as we can. So how do we identify the runner?? Well this is one theory that myself and Mr V. are working on right now, mostly Mr V.s work.

Look at the TTindy and try to see which currency is prominent in the table, so lets say 5 of the pairs are JPY pairs then obviously there is some strength or weakness in that currency across the board. The money is going on or leaving JPY pairs.... Now try to decide which JPY pair to trade so if JPY is weak then look for the strongest currency to trade it against, if JPY is strong then look for weakest currency to trade it against. I used my CSM indicator for this Mr V tends to look at the key pairs to see if he can find the strongest/weakest currencies. Like all trading try to find the strongest/weakest combination. If you can't come to any conclusions from that then quite simply trade the JPY biggest mover which in my book is GBPJPY so if it is going to be a JPY run then you've got the biggest mover so hopefully the biggest winner.

In fact MR V. tends to just watch GBP pairs and a couple of big AUD movers for just this reason, he believes GBP pairs move further than most so that could be the rule if JPY weak across the board trade GBPJPY if AUD weak across the board trade GBPAUD. Interestingly enough that happened to me earlier this week, I identified AUD weakness across the board , so I thought either EURAUD or GBPAUD then looked at my CSM to find the weakest currency and at the time it looked like EUR was the weaker of the two so I chose EURAUD.( all recorded on post 2166 in thread) Unfortunately for me my chosen EURAUD didn't give me a system entry so missed the GBPAUD setup which went really well. In fact it was the only runner in LO so I was close to catching the runner but didn't quite get it right, but close.

OK so what did I learn and whats the plan to catch the session runner?? Well 2 things really, firstly its advisable to try and identify the strongest/weakest combination by using the TTindy and CSM or if you have one currency prominent in the TTindy then just trade the GBP pair with that currency. Mind you if the prominent currency is EUR I'm not going to choose EURGBP. Too much like watching paint dry for my liking, I'd go for EURAUD instead or another big moving EUR pair.

The other option of course is to take 2 entries one in each pair but that could be hard to mange two 1 minute trades at the same time, however I'm going to look into that possibility and will be reducing my risk size accordingly. I will be trading next week with 5% across 20 pips, but more about that later.

OK so what other way can we use the TTindy? Well if you've got a runner then it will be top of your 5 min and come to the top of the 1 min on each push, so keep an eye on the 5 min TTs and when the 1 min and 5 min agree then pull the chart up and have a look, every chance its going to be the runner as top of both. Just want to clarify something here that might help and that is what the TTindy is actually showing us. The 1 min side is showing us who is the strongest mover over the last 15 minutes and the 5 min side is showing us who is the strongest mover over the last hour. So it stands to reason the biggest mover will come to the top of both at sometime in the morning.

Basically the top of the 1 min will have a nice strong AB move when you look at it so if its also top of 5 min you can bet its not its first push up today. What you're seeing everytime a 5 min top trender comes to the top of the 1 min TTs is the new push higher or lower so have a look and if its clearly pushing higher than the last drive up then trend is still strong and in place get ready to jump on that next pullback.

Just a quick aside here about the TTindy or any indicator for that matter , they are exactly as their name suggest , an indicator, nothing else , they are not a confirmed signal to enter a trade they are an indication that this chart needs a good dose of looking at and you, the trader, have to decide whether to trade the next pullback or not??? Remember the TTindy is an indicator that something interesting is happening and you need to look at that chart. It is certainly NOT a signal to blindly enter a trade....

Identifying Reversal Trades.


Not only can we use the TTindy to identify continuation trades but also its very good at identifying quality reversals that are very tradable. I'm talking about when a pair is top of the 5 min and top of the 1 min TTindy but opposite colours, Why is this significant?? Well a good reversal usually comes after a strong push one way, then turns and soars the other way as traders try to bank their profits from the previous run as fast as their little fingers will let them. They want to be first out not last out. This leads to the pair being top of both TTindy coloums because its fallen a long way and in traders mad rush to bank profits it causes the price to soar back the other way and drive it top of the 1 minute indy but the opposite colour.

Trade it as you would a continuation trade looking to hold your first couple of entries until the 100lwma turns back down again.

Using daily and weekly pivots.

I've introduced daily and weekly pivots as Key Levels after chatting to MR V. . I use to have then originally but took them off to clean up my charts but I can see they are Key Levels to trade our 1 minute charts around so will be bringing them back to my template. Use same as any other Key Level for entry and exits watching for a reaction at these levels.

The 100lWMA is a key key level for entries and exits..

I 've started to notice how powerful our 100lwma is for entries and exits. It is very very instrumental in finding quality entries. Any entry off of a 100lwma on a top trender just seems to fly. Also I'm noticing that CCI signals that are too far away from the MA have a tendency to fail. Heres a chart from that incredible move on Monday where I started to notice just how good these entries are.



I've marked out the with yellow arrows the quality entries that are on or close(within 20 pips) of the 100lwma. You can see the quality of them they have the advantage of shooting away from your entry so that you can get to BE very quickly and they hardly ever come back to test your entry so your BE stop is safe. Also look at the size of the runs you get from them. I've always said the 100lwma is the favourite entry of dear old Fred (bank traders) and this confirms it to me, these entries are obviously supported with some serious money.

Also the break and retest of the 100lwma is an awesome entry to get you into the trend early.

I've also marked in red arrows the CCI entries that are more than 20 pips away from the 100lwma and basically fail or don't go very far unlike the ones nearer the 100lwma. Very risky looking entries in comparison as they don't go farplus you can't get your 20 pip stop behind the 100lwma.

I'm setting a new rule in absolute stone from here on , all entries must be within 20 pips of the 100lwma where I can expect a higher success rate and a higher return plus I can get my 20 pip stop behind the 100lwma. The closer to the 100lwma the better.

Using 20 pip stops and 5% risk

I'm changing my emergency stop to 20 pips and reducing my risk to 5% across those 20 pips. This stop must go below the 100lwma if it can't then entry is invalid don't take it. I'm not expecting my 20 pip stop to get hit very often as I would normally close out manually if I don't like my entry or if price doesn't get away fast then I'm looking to GTFO asap. However occasionally if I like my 20 pip stop I may see it out as with a strong trender I really don't expect to see it hit very often. However if it does its 5% of outstanding balance so account can withstand that sort of damage no problem.

Golden golden rule, Never ever move that 20 pip stop under any circumstances thats written in stone too...

New "Hold em and fold em" exit strategy.

As any of my regular readers will know I've been frustrated at times never knowing whether to "hold em or fold em" , some days choosing to hold and other days just grabbing my little orphans whenever I can. Of course the problem was when to do which??? One day I doubled my account grabbing orphan after orphan whereas Monday I got 678 pips by holding , thats an awful lot of orphans you know...

So whats for the best?? Hold or fold??? Well how about holding and folding every time?? How about if I had an exit strategy that worked on both types of days??? Wouldn't that be cool??? Well now I have...

Let me introduce you to my all new "Hold em and fold em" exit strategy. Its all back to grass routes and our dear old ABCD pattern . You've got to think what happens in a range when I should be grabbing orphans and what happens in a strong trend when I should be holding?? Well in a rangy day price will struggle to go past point B but in a strong trending day it will smash past B and soar up the page and if price does come back to B on the next pullback it will take support off of B again. Thats what strong trends do the waves don't overlap each other they just keep going stepping up on each drive.

Ok so what I'm going to do is try to gauge when point B is going to hold or when price is going to smash straight past. If I see it falter and looks like its coming back to my entry I'll bank my orphan if however it goes through B then I'll hold and trail its stop up under point B. Now if its trending it will just keep going maybe taking support off of point B but the bottom line is I will be holding my trade for the long run. If however it doesn't break B or comes back and breaks B on the 2nd pullback then I'm out with my little orphan.

Final exit will be either when price comes back and hits my trailed entries behind the last B point or the 100lwma changes colour.

Sure theres gonna be times I will get it wrong and end up with an orphan when I should of held but if you look at the GBPJPY chart above you can see how I would of been holding all my entries as none came back past point B as it was trending so strongly. So there you have it no more confusion no need to decide what to do when, its the same rule for all entries....

If price falters at point B and is coming back at my entry I bank my orphan if however it breaks B then I'm holding and trail stop up behind point B.


Well thats about it for today will be interesting to see how next week works out, see if we can catch a runner or two especially with my all new "Hold em and fold em" exit strategy added to my new rule about entering as close to 100lwma as possible.

could be very interesting....

Something else I just wanted to share with you as many traders dont trade the 1 min charts because they're too fast but when you trade strong trending pairs the CCI can give you up to 5 mins to plan an entry, thats enough time to make a cup of tea before entering...

I often read on FF how indicators lag price well not my CCI it regularly turns before price leading the way and giving me a nice heads up its about to turn. Heres an example of CCI leading price by a clear 5 minutes.



Lets walk through this entry step by step...

 

1. First of all its top of the 1 minute TTindy so a strong trending pair.
2. Notice the first two -100 CCI signals didn't qualify as price is further than 20 pips away from the LWMA so we let them both go.
3. Then theres another CCI signal as it goes below the -100level for the third time now we're waiting for the CCI to start going back up, red candles shortening.
4. You look for a key level for it to turn at and you have two, the BRN 177.00 and our 100LWMA so qualifying the CCI signal.
5. Price is pulling back towards the BRN and the 100lwma our preferred entry point.
6. Notice as price pulls back the CCI starts to turn up at 09.10hrs giving you a heads up that price is about to turn up.
7. You place a pending buy stop above the last closed candle.
8. As each candle closes drag the pending order down 2 pips above each closed candle.
9. Price starts to move back up 5 minutes after the first CCI signal hitting our buy stop and we're away.
10. Once 2nd or 3rd candle closes away from entry move stop to BE.
11. Watch price approach point B if it falters close out for about a 50 pip win here, its also a 50 level so good target.
12. You might however decide to hold until 100lwma turns red as point B broken quite nicely and if you had you'd of had a another 100 pips more.

Just wanted to go through my entry routine step by step and show how the CCI regularly leads the price giving you plenty of time to get organised for entry...

Hey Clive, you are just like me always in deep thought mode...hehehe! But yeah that idea of placing an opposite order instead of a S/L might just be an awesome idea. The only problem for me though is that I live in the United States and I keep hearing people say that the regulators here are trying to take away our ability to hedge so I guess in my case I will have to be a lot more creative to find ways to work around situations like that.That's why I'm always @ the drawing board

A lot to think about, Clive. I'm sure there are a number of people following along but not saying much (I'm one of them).
I'm starting to use the TTindy on every chart. Thanks for posting how to use it to the best advantage.

Wow man, your entry technique is just simply a thing of beauty! I believe entries like this could work on ANY time frame {from the 1M, all the way up to the Monthly}. Thank you for sharing Clive...You are well on your way to being a great and extremely wealthy trader my friend. And forget about those who question your ability to trade from the 1M or 5M charts. If it works like that and it's not broken, then why fix it right? I'm really starting to understand that it really doesn't matter what timeframe we choose to trade on. As long as it fits our personality, level of patience and lifestyle it's, all good! We just need to become the master of one timeframe and stick to that.

Hi Moneyflow

Yep they sure can, anything I talk about here can work on any timeframe from the tick chart right through to the monthly charts its all just fractals... If you like that entry system wait till you hear about my tick box entry,sometimes I go to BE in the same tick, is that a safe entry technique or what??? Its awesome!!! But too difficult to explain here..

Yep I'm always thinking about Forex, I go to bed thinking about it, I wake up thinking about it, I spend my weekend thinking about it, yep I'm addicted to Forex...

Sad isn't it????

But i made myself a promise when my Dad passed away, I'm going to crack this Forex trading if its the last thing I do and someone told me all you have to do is think about it every minute of the day. Immerse yourself in it and it will all come good. Nothing is beyond us if we just apply ourselves to it, nothing....

So here I am all weekend thinking and thinking and thinking.....

But I'll get there, thanks for your comments really appreciate it...

Oh and one more thing just to remind everyone on this thread...

Don't forget about the ABCD pattern and waiting for good pullbacks at point C. Then using the Fib Retrace or Expansion tools for targets. If price retraces to either 38.2%, 50.0% or 61.8% many times the market will aim for the 161.8% extension/expansion level as the target.

You can also simply use previous structure zones (areas of Support & Resistance) from the past as targets. This is what the big bankers do I believe!

The hardest thing to identify in a live market is figuring out which direction price will move once at Point C. A trick to knowing is to draw counter trendlines. Say if price is currently in an uptrend and breaks and closes above the trendline and the candle is a bullish engulfing or a bullish pinbar, etc. This indication would be even stronger in an uptrend at a structure Suoport area. That will be a good indication that the entire ABCD Swing pattern will continue going up. But if price breaks below your countertrend line and closes with some sort of bearish engulfing or bearish pin bar or any other bearish reversal sign then you k ow that we are now reversing trends and the ABCD pattern must now be flipped upside down and drawn from top to bottom with Point C now expected to be an upward moving retracement.

I'll try to explain this in more detail with some pictures if I get some time...

Hi Mary

Thanks for posting its nice to know I'm helping someone, I'm a bit surprised myself that more don't post to be honest after all I won't bite.

I haven't forgotten about your PM but would like to discuss with you in more detail.

thanks again for your posts much appreciated..

Yes please do use some charts as a picture paints a thousand words...

Having said that you explained that very well , I believe you're saying what appears to be a retracement can in fact turn out to be the first wave of a new trend in the opposite direction so draw the pullback trendline, draw the trend trendline and where the two cross is decision time. Whichever trendline gets broken then follow the other...

Am i on the right lines????

Last post today guys must spend some time with my lovely Claire..

Just wanted to post The Bigger Picture of that earlier entry on post 2173, this is how it looks panned out a bit and with the 3 exit choices..Its amazing how many pips you can get from 1 minute charts but like I say its because they are the top trenders, simple as that..



By the way I'm always doing this when I'm trading, panning out as far as I can to clearly identify support resistance etc basically looking at the 15 min picture through my 1 minute eyes...

Catch up tomoz, I'm sure I'll wake up tomoz with something new to share...