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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #54,901
  • Edited 9:48pm Jan 24, 2015 8:46pm | Edited 9:48pm
Quoting love.l0ve
Anyone still bullish on UJ with me, i think it must touch 119-120 before bearish.
Right now? Not sure.

As it stands, overall bias is bullish, but intraday bias indicators seem to lean towards a movement to the lower regions, with the initial vital testing support at 117.50 & 117. You should also check out the other yen pairs, ESPECIALLY the GBP/JPY. Often, the GBP/JPY is merely a more "bigger" version of the USD/JPY, moving in the same pattern but with a higher trading range.

From what I can see, bulls have repeatedly tried to move up, but each time, they kept getting knocked down. A very memorable case is when the GBP/JPY bounced right back up after nearly touching the 176.00/.20 support (117.5 for USD/JPY). You have to keep in mind that the bulls and bears fought over at the 50% of the bounce zone, and when the bulls did somehow bring it up late into the Friday session (which is rare since nearly all of Friday's chart movements taper off after the initial few hours), it fell right down back to the 50% zone and started to edge lower near the end of the trading day.

So based on Friday, I'm slightly leaning towards bears. However, weekends are in play, this may change when the market opens on Sunday.

My current stance is to sit tight and wait for a more actionable moment. Or you could take a small short during the first few minutes/hour of the market opening on Sunday. Just make sure your losses are all manageable.
  • #54,902
  • Jan 25, 2015 10:40am Jan 25, 2015 10:40am
Yeah, until we trade either below the support or above both resistance levels drawn, I'm not trading this pair. There is no clear trend for the time being.

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  • #54,903
  • Jan 25, 2015 5:31pm Jan 25, 2015 5:31pm
Soon we will arrive at 116.80.. long-term speaking, my bias is bearish and I believe that the wedge we are in will be broken soon from its bottom support line.. therefore the narrower we get inside the wedge range we will have better chances to minimize risk with tighter stop losses and to get in once a rally starts.

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,904
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:09pm Jan 25, 2015 6:09pm
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  • #54,905
  • Jan 25, 2015 6:19pm Jan 25, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting Geppy
There is no clear trend for the time being.
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  • #54,906
  • Jan 25, 2015 9:06pm Jan 25, 2015 9:06pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Mind is strong weapon, but better write what comes through so you dont forget
thanks
  • #54,907
  • Edited 9:36pm Jan 25, 2015 9:23pm | Edited 9:36pm
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} thanks
Hope your trades are fine. Am currently loosing, as you can probably imagine while am still long. Currently concerned bout this m15 hold of Fridays close. Think both bulls and bears need 118,3, but moves are affected heavily by cash flow through Europe. Not nice moves.

Edit: Btw, you may know I like Pacman theory. He has eaten almost all resist @ Fridays close again. Bastard .
Edit: So, as I was speaking bout Pacman, changed a chart a bit.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,908
  • Edited 11:28pm Jan 25, 2015 11:06pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Soon we will arrive at 116.80.. long-term speaking, my bias is bearish and I believe that the wedge we are in will be broken soon from its bottom support line.. therefore the narrower we get inside the wedge range we will have better chances to minimize risk with tighter stop losses and to get in once a rally starts. Happy Trades
I disagree with you re this being a wedge (using the classic trader description of a wedge). It may just be semantics, but IMHO, it continues as an equilateral triangle with a mid point circa 118.6, as I discussed here before Christmas. And at 117.6 it may be on the verge of breaking back up towards 120 - contingent on breaking back over 117.8/9 today.

Although, yes, right here is the point where it proves itself ... or turns around.
  • #54,909
  • Jan 25, 2015 11:06pm Jan 25, 2015 11:06pm
i added another volume
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  • #54,910
  • Jan 25, 2015 11:30pm Jan 25, 2015 11:30pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I disagree with you re this being a wedge (using the classic trader description of a wedge). It may just be semantics, but IMHO, it continues as an equilateral triangle with a mid point circa 118.6, as I discussed here before Christmas. And at 117.6 it may be on the verge of breaking back up towards 120 - contingent on breaking back over 117.8/9 today. Although, yes, right here is the point where it proves itself ... or turns around.
As long we are below that stupid 117.75 level I will stay bearish. I also don't care if it's a wedge or whatever it is.. all I see is we are still inside the triangle.

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,911
  • Jan 25, 2015 11:36pm Jan 25, 2015 11:36pm
Near-term support shows at 117.25/18. Below 116.93/85 is needed to see further weakness for 115.86, ahead of pivotal support at 115.57/46 which we would look to ideally hold. Strategy: Long at 117.80, stop below 117.00, for 119.95.
  • #54,912
  • Jan 25, 2015 11:55pm Jan 25, 2015 11:55pm
I'm also bearish right now though; there's been so many bearish attempts to the bottom, and all the efforts by the bulls seem to taper off rather quickly in comparison.

It still doesn't make me any happier, however, since I've waited the past 8 hours for nothing to really happen. Then again, trading just opened for the people.

Key points are 117.50, followed by 117.20/00. Those two must get breached if bears will finally have their day.
  • #54,913
  • Jan 26, 2015 12:29am Jan 26, 2015 12:29am
Once upon a time ............. there's a wave pattern called the Ending Diagonal (ED). It's called 'ending' because it ends one cycle or wave and begins another, and usually it would be a trending wave that comes after the ED.
This ED here ( in orange), as per guideline suggest, would be complete at least above 118.71, therefore I'd placed a price alert to sell from there.
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  • #54,914
  • Jan 26, 2015 12:38am Jan 26, 2015 12:38am
Quoting skyhok
Once upon a time ............. there's a wave pattern called the Ending Diagonal (ED). It's called 'ending' because it ends one cycle or wave and begins another, and usually it would be a trending wave that comes after the ED. This ED here ( in orange), as per guideline suggest, would be complete at least above 118.71, therefore I'd placed a price alert to sell from there. {image}
I agree. Although I believe it's going to bounce from 116.5 ish again first then up to 118.5ish. Then downward from there. I posted this same comment earlier but moderator didn't post. But I'm thinking like you.
  • #54,915
  • Jan 26, 2015 12:42am Jan 26, 2015 12:42am
Quoting skyhok
Once upon a time ............. there's a wave pattern called the Ending Diagonal (ED). It's called 'ending' because it ends one cycle or wave and begins another, and usually it would be a trending wave that comes after the ED. This ED here ( in orange), as per guideline suggest, would be complete at least above 118.71, therefore I'd placed a price alert to sell from there. {image}
do you think time to buy usd/jpy now?it breaked 117.80
  • #54,916
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:03am Jan 26, 2015 1:03am
Quoting kanchmadush
{quote} do you think time to buy usd/jpy now?it breaked 117.80
i think he is looking to sell @ 118.71
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  • #54,917
  • Jan 26, 2015 1:16am Jan 26, 2015 1:16am
FIRST TARGET 119.75
  • #54,918
  • Jan 26, 2015 3:33am Jan 26, 2015 3:33am
game = from support to resistance from resistance to support, so until they, will not be breaking of consolidation
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  • #54,919
  • Jan 26, 2015 3:33am Jan 26, 2015 3:33am
Quoting Gdhall59
{quote} I agree. Although I believe it's going to bounce from 116.5 ish again first then up to 118.5ish. Then downward from there. I posted this same comment earlier but moderator didn't post. But I'm thinking like you.
Same as I analysis...
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  • #54,920
  • Jan 26, 2015 4:53am Jan 26, 2015 4:53am
Quoting Mpt
.... equilateral triangle with a mid point circa 118.6, as I discussed here before Christmas. And at 117.6 it may be on the verge of breaking back up towards 120 - contingent on breaking back over 117.8/9 today. Although, yes, right here is the point where it proves itself ... or turns around.
Thats right. Also worth to mention that since 16th of January pacman already visited mid few times and chewed it pretty hard. Not much resist left @ 118,5. But the same goes for 117,2. We are consolidation just a little bit below mid of this trianguloid foker. Once finished, can go boom pretty fast.
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
I like Pacman theory.
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