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  • #953,501
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:30am Jan 23, 2015 1:30am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Yeah. Its a 58% chance negative data will make it go lower, and 42% chance negative data will make it go higher. Then the question is "How much?". Circa 100 pip i think. Quite probably it will do both though. Maybe not for 100, maybe just 70. Or 50. Not not. Or yes. Yes yes. No yes? Think i will stick to PA and not bother my pretty head with the fundies. That shit will just make my head spin like a bottle of rum and a hard punch to the jaw.
The only bright spot on today's calender for euro will be the german data.
The rest I believe will be bad, as it will take some time for QE to take affect.
I see 1.10 or close enough the end of January.
  • #953,502
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:34am Jan 23, 2015 1:34am
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morning i have a wine hangover ..lol would one say that looks like a buy .
  • #953,503
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:36am Jan 23, 2015 1:36am
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try long here too target 5025/5050.5100
  • #953,504
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:39am Jan 23, 2015 1:39am
Quoting navk
USDJPY 117.00 (USD 334m) 118.00 (USD 2.3bln) 118.25 (USD 749m) 119.00 (USD 565m) EURUSD 1.1400 (EUR 1bln) 1.1450 (EUR 740m) 1.1500 (EUR 1bln) 1.1550 (EUR 2.2bln) 1.1600 (EUR 1.1bln 1.1650 (EUR 822m) 1.1700 (EUR 1.45bln) GBPUSD 1.5250 (GBP 350m) USDCAD none AUDUSD 0.7900 (AUD 456m) NZDUSD 0.7500 (NZD 500m) EURGBP 0.7500 (EUR 660m) 0.7600 (EUR 270m) Above are option expiries NY 10 AM. . Source : Forexlive.
hi navk
you think that eu will retrace above 1.4??? s this related to the expiring options? help :-) thank you
  • #953,505
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:46am Jan 23, 2015 1:46am
Quoting kill56
i did post this in 2010 enjoy Read with me Forget the news, remember the chart.
Words of wisdom. How long before you can enter a trade with a tp and sl and forget about the it.
Everything you want lies on the other side of fear.
  • #953,506
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:53am Jan 23, 2015 1:53am
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Hey guys,
When I look at the Euro Day chart.
From the Mid-Dec to today, there are no any reverses or pullbacks.
Look at the recent slope, almost bigger than 45 degree, even close to 70-80 degree yesterday.

With such an incredible short amount, all I feel is EXTREME!
I don't want to touch euro these days, it's scary; like a boom ticking "5! 4! 3! 2! ...".

How long do you think the poor 600/month QE could keep holding such a short side?
  • #953,507
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:54am Jan 23, 2015 1:54am
Quoting TraderRaven7
{quote} The only bright spot on today's calender for euro will be the german data. The rest I believe will be bad, as it will take some time for QE to take affect. I see 1.10 or close enough the end of January.
Well, if you know that the german data will be good, then the people who shorted yesterday probably knew that as well. So they already factored that in when they shorted yesterday. So what does that mean today?

Everybody knew about QE since before. So they already factored that in as well. Meaning they knew it will go up or what? So why did they short yesterday?

If everybody knows it will take some time for QE to take effect, they have already factored that in, so the effect of QE has already happend before it happend or what?

I dont know these things. Nobody can figure this out if you ask me. Or maybe someone can, but noone i know and certainly noone who is talking so i hear it.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #953,508
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:55am Jan 23, 2015 1:55am
Quoting Hyci
{image} How long do you think the poor 600/month QE could keep holding such a short side?
Until price action shows otherwise.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #953,509
  • Jan 23, 2015 1:58am Jan 23, 2015 1:58am
Not sure if anyone noticed the SNB stopped buying billions of Euros too?
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett
  • #953,510
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:00am Jan 23, 2015 2:00am
Short.
Sl 40 pips .. Target 1.1281
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #953,511
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:01am Jan 23, 2015 2:01am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well, if you know that the german data will be good, then the people who shorted yesterday probably knew that as well. So they already factored that in when they shorted yesterday. So what does that mean today? Everybody knew about QE since before. So they already factored that in as well. Meaning they knew it will go up or what? So why did they short yesterday? If everybody knows it will take some time for QE to take effect, they have already factored that in, so the effect of QE has already happend before it happend or what? I dont know...
I really doubt it that everything has been factored in by the market. Maybe they have but any bad data is still going to push the market down irrespective of what has been and has not been factored in.
Traders prefer to trade the facts rather then theories. My opinion is just a personal theory not written in stone.
  • #953,512
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:02am Jan 23, 2015 2:02am
Quoting Hyci
{image} Hey guys, When I look at the Euro Day chart. From the Mid-Dec to today, there are no any reverses or pullbacks. Look at the recent slope, almost bigger than 45 degree, even close to 70-80 degree yesterday. With such an incredible short amount, all I feel is EXTREME! I don't want to touch euro these days, it's scary; like a boom ticking "5! 4! 3! 2! ...". How long do you think the poor 600/month QE could keep holding such a short side?
its not just EURO... its also about the USD....
USD will enter a cycle of rate hikes potentially interest rates in US rising back to normalization at 3%.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #953,513
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:06am Jan 23, 2015 2:06am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} its not just EURO... its also about the USD.... USD will enter a cycle of rate hikes potentially interest rates in US rising back to normalization at 3%.
True, even if euro starts getting strong the usd will be still stronger, Atleast in near future.
  • #953,514
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:07am Jan 23, 2015 2:07am
Quoting TraderRaven7
{quote} any bad data is still going to push the market down irrespective of what has been and has not been factored in.
Sure about that? OK. So you have been at it for a while trading like that and withdrawn a few tens of thousands of euros or dollars or what ever using this thinking of yours?

Good for you, you have an IQ of 200 or so.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #953,515
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:14am Jan 23, 2015 2:14am
Speaking for myself, if the market is going to go down or up because of a news item, its because it wasnt like the big money institutions thought it was going to be. So the "real" news is the relation between what they thought it was going to be, and what they thought it was once they knew it.

That doesnt really matter much though. News is price action anyway. Thats how i read it.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #953,516
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:15am Jan 23, 2015 2:15am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Sure about that? OK. So you have been at it for a while trading like that and withdrawn a few tens of thousands of euros or dollars or what ever using this thinking of yours? Good for you, you have an IQ of 200 or so.
Yes I have my thinking and you have yours, does not have to be alike and does not mean yours is right and mineis wwrong.
Good luck to you.
  • #953,517
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:16am Jan 23, 2015 2:16am
Quoting TraderRaven7
{quote} True, even if euro starts getting strong the usd will be still stronger, Atleast in near future.
The ECB still want a weaker Euro and are acting to make that happen. It is more probable that it will go down over the long term. This bond buying does not include Greek bonds, as far as I am aware, and Greece is still struggling as Mr Putin makes some attempts to pull them out of the EU. Spain is still in a bad way too.

Since laws were changed that made it mandatory for banks to buy junk bonds in the EU, calls for stronger Euro are a bet that those junk bonds, and all of the banks now exposed to the junk in their portfolios, will be just fine.

The political landscape is changing too, with nationalist parties coming to the fore in member states.

The EU is probably doomed.
"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." - Warren Buffett
  • #953,518
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:19am Jan 23, 2015 2:19am
Quoting Spili
{quote} The EU is probably doomed.
Yupp. I think Farage and UKIP is one of the few who understands that.

Its not like: "Its gonna work if we just WANT it too!"

Its not political, its mathematical. If you ask me.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #953,519
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:21am Jan 23, 2015 2:21am
Quoting Malchi
Short. Sl 40 pips .. Target 1.1281
Back to Andy W's system?

How do YOU determine direction, please?
  • #953,520
  • Jan 23, 2015 2:27am Jan 23, 2015 2:27am
Quoting Spili
{quote} The ECB still want a weaker Euro and are acting to make that happen. It is more probable that it will go down over the long term. This bond buying does not include Greek bonds, as far as I am aware, and Greece is still struggling as Mr Putin makes some attempts to pull them out of the EU. Spain is still in a bad way too. Since laws were changed that made it mandatory for banks to buy junk bonds in the EU, calls for stronger Euro are a bet that those junk bonds, and all of the banks now exposed to the junk in their portfolios, will be just...
Its the whole powermongering big state federalist fascist centralisation thinking that wants to bring everything under one roof and control the whole thing. Some people see it that way, most people dont though.

Germany is the bird in the mine. Keeping an eye on the sentiment there for anti-EU is key. Once it starts getting to 15% of the population, that thing is going to spread like wildfire i thing. Exponential growth on that thing. In general i mean. Its a analogue system with lots of bits and such, but sorta, yeah.
My signature is: "Classified".
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