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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #54,821
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:40am Jan 22, 2015 1:40am
Will wait till retrace is over.. thinking of adding to my shorts around 117.90/118.00

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,822
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:03am Jan 22, 2015 2:03am
Quoting DailyChart
LO indicated down - I wont buy it
we might go to yesterday low unless NY consolidate and bring it up
  • #54,823
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:08am Jan 22, 2015 2:08am
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} we might go to yesterday low unless NY consolidate and bring it up
117.74
  • #54,824
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:19am Jan 22, 2015 2:19am
Quoting Fx_Anil
{quote} Great one
Man, think I am going to get heartattack . Was planning to PA shoot above zone so I could take partial and move SL lower. Now SL 117,12 pretty close :/, few are at 115,84, but I want them all to be there pre ECB. Will clear all trades I wont be able to hold below this point and think am gonna risk like 4% in this trade. Thats my monthly target, but.... for such an occasion - I would rather stop smoking and drinking to have a shoot . I drink quite a lot, thats gonna be heavy savings in case it wont work .

Currently H4 looking really bad, actually seems if there was intraday abc down am fooked as bull. But think market has no time to do abc down to continue bear now, as it should be in the mid on ECB decision.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,825
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:26am Jan 22, 2015 2:26am
EU seems to start running down btw.
edit: could use last push to 1638 to be perfect load... but.. think it has orders stacked below that line.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,826
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:49am Jan 22, 2015 2:49am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Man, think I am going to get heartattack . Was planning to PA shoot above zone so I could take partial and move SL lower. Now SL 117,12 pretty close :/, f....n.
Have you taken a look at the 116.99 retracement (61.8%) or the 166.54 (76.4%) levels?

The CCI showed extremely overbought conditions at 118.31 in the 1h.
Lost....
  • #54,827
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:52am Jan 22, 2015 2:52am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
EU seems to start running down btw. edit: could use last push to 1638 to be perfect load... but.. think it has orders stacked below that line.
k. 1638 touched. EU ready to fall. Finally.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,828
  • Edited 3:03am Jan 22, 2015 2:53am | Edited 3:03am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Have you taken a look at the 116.99 retracement (61.8%) or the 166.54 (76.4%) levels? The CCI showed extremely overbought conditions at 118.31 in the 1h.
Yes, thats the bearish scenario am looking at. But believe we have no time to do it. No reason to short it heavy now as ECB approaches and may ease.

edit: though I have 116,91 target here, but thats almost the same. It is also weekly bull target, for breaking zone, if there was time to finish.....
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,829
  • Jan 22, 2015 3:13am Jan 22, 2015 3:13am
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  • #54,830
  • Jan 22, 2015 4:29am Jan 22, 2015 4:29am
Opened a risky long scalper at 117.50 (SL 20 pips)

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,831
  • Jan 22, 2015 4:31am Jan 22, 2015 4:31am
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  • #54,832
  • Jan 22, 2015 5:42am Jan 22, 2015 5:42am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Opened a risky long scalper at 117.50 (SL 20 pips) Happy Trades
Supposed to be a scalper but it went quick... closed with +50 pips at 118.00

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,833
  • Jan 22, 2015 6:14am Jan 22, 2015 6:14am
Roughly 118.00 is the new decision point.. let's see if price can stay below it..

Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #54,834
  • Jan 22, 2015 6:48am Jan 22, 2015 6:48am
Seems like turning back to yesterday low at 117.28..
Stay GREEN my friends........
  • #54,835
  • Jan 22, 2015 8:42am Jan 22, 2015 8:42am
I didn't manage to deleverage any of my overnight positions nor protect them so took a small loss on all lots. Anyway, exact same entry on new longs with 117.76 after 117.92 hourly candle but this time a shot in the veins for risk as it recouples with the pair after it broke correlation a bit prior to the QE announce. Here's to a Euro QE fueled equity rally across the board.

I know I mentioned before that 117.76 should clear a smooth path but unfortunately after a detailed look and subsequent events I do see a lot of resistance overhead to chew through. First 118.21 (daily players who used yesterdays red candle to play 118.36 which is interim daily swing level) down. 118.67 is daily resistance and just above 118.86/97 are powerful weekly hi/lows. So maybe not the smoothest possible ride ahead for long holders.


Quoting ClinicalEx
I got in with that 60 m momentum candle closing on 86. Jumping the gun abit but the bottom is looking good and we're coming off support on the Nikkei. Nice looking setup but I need to sleep so it's going to be tricky to manage...
  • #54,836
  • Edited 11:48am Jan 22, 2015 10:09am | Edited 11:48am
Quoting ClinicalEx
I didn't manage to deleverage any of my overnight positions ...
Yo mate, simmilar here. I had to deleverage pretty much lower as ECB was incoming on bad time... So, overall combined hunting for UJ for three days cost me about 2,6%, out of which about half was that pre ECB deleveraging on worst spot (@ 117,5). Luckily still well in profit due EU shorts pre SNB. So - overall month +2,2% - but CZK impact out of ECB move will very possibly eat some.

But though it cost me some, I have built these positions below, so think I may still well finish month at targeted 4% . 119,1 is just primary intraday target for both bears and bulls - it is partial (just didnt change numbers in xls), then 119,5, if broken on H1, prolly last correct to mid before break. If 119,1 holds, or if zone holds - especially 118,3 - looking bad for bulls.

Overall think idea of hedging EU move through UJ long worked quite fine.

Edit: + chart.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,837
  • Jan 22, 2015 12:29pm Jan 22, 2015 12:29pm
DRAGHI came through for us..

Still waiting for Uj to break out of this cap its under.. 118.8 plus..

Patience...
  • #54,838
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:34pm Jan 22, 2015 1:34pm
Am not very good in these short intraday movements but think 118,3 should get a retest. Any scalper here?
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #54,839
  • Jan 22, 2015 1:39pm Jan 22, 2015 1:39pm
going short.
  • #54,840
  • Jan 22, 2015 2:17pm Jan 22, 2015 2:17pm
I'm waiting to see what we do around 119 before shorting.
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