TMS and Me

Sadly they didn't work. I risked half on each trade, so together were -1R.

AUD/USD gave a nice signal to go long instead which I didn't take. It happens Moving on.

Seems pretty hit and miss!

Always convenient to risks half after the fact

Don't intend to knock the TDI in any way or how people trade it, just to make an observation that some traders may be unaware of and find of interest. Dean Malone, who created the TDI around ten years ago as part of his Synergy system still uses the TDI, not as we do - a signal system to buy/sell on a cross - but as a way to gauge market sentiment, divergence etc. Interestingly, when he has shown the crossover as a technique it's always the green crossing the yellow, not the red.

I've never seen any stats or even heard of anyone making the comparison between the two, but it would be interesting to know how a green/red cross compared to a green yellow cross regarding success rates and number of pips gained/lost. Obviously a green/red cross would get you in earlier and in theory give you more pips, but sometimes it doubles back on you before crossing the yellow thus in this instance waiting for a yellow cross would have kept you out of a losing trade. Would a green/yellow cross maybe give less pips but be a more certain trade? I have no idea, just throwing it in the mix. But if green represents price sentiment and yellow market sentiment I can see the logic of why Dean would use the green/yellow cross. Hope I've not sinned by discussing anything other than the TMS green/red cross.

Most of the time any trade before yellow cross is called counter trend report. they are risky and some time they are only retrenchment not change in trend.
Unless you know Price action should avoid trades with ought cross of yellow.

I think He trades on 15 M chart so lon LTF you have to consider yellow cross .

Dean's method also ride price channel. You get in a little late with chance to catch runner. Can work really great for those with a lot of patience.

DireWolf, are you gone for vacation/honeymoon? I was enjoying your thread but it seems to have gone a bit silent as of late.

Hi Mess! I'm still around and have been posting in the buy low sell high thread. Sorry I haven't posted here much but I haven't traded TMS much lately.

Hello everyone. I want to let you guys know that my trading today has diverge away from TMS.

Around the time we were discussing R:R of my trades, the Tsunami thread showed up. Some of you may have a chance to read that thread before the owner removed it. It was a true eye opener and I had applied the idea to my own trading with amazing results. The idea is so simple... enter with the smallest stop possible and go for huge wins. My win rate dropped dramatically to 15%-20%, however, the wins would net me more than enough to cover 5-10 loses. I can't believe how stress-free trading is when you don't have to worry too much if your trade would win or lose. While my wins are not as large as that thread's owner (his was 100-200R, mine were only 5-15R), December alone I made profit equal to a whole year of trading... it's crazy.

This is 1 example. AUD/USD. I thought this could become a "double top" and when price looks like it's starting to reject that top, I entered with 0.5 R
M15 chart, trade taken during first hour of London.


Do I have to worry if it wasn't a double top? Not really... this trade could net me 10R+, that's totally worth the risk don't you think?

When the candle closed and looked like a 2-bar-reversal PA, I entered my remaining 0.5 R


After first 2 positions BE, the pair went into another range and had a chance to form another 2-bar-reversal PA. Entered 2 more 0.5R positions, same method.

Trade concluded... top 2 positions netted me around 10R, the other 2 around 7R.


As you can see, it's not TMS. I also consider myself a beginner in this path so I wasn't sure if i should post it here. Anyway here are some learning resources for those who are interested in what I am trying to learn.

The basic of "Market Maker"
▶ Market Makers Method Training Part One - YouTube

Trading the naked chart by Captain Jack
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/php...1572&hilit=RRT

Safe trading to you all!

Hi
Hope you enjoy your wedding holidays!
Can you elaborate more on how exactly your new trading style?
Thanks!

Hi NSN14. The idea I apply to my trading is the same as I posted above with Tsunami being the most important imo.

Anyway, I'm going to quote my good friend Matt here as I think he put it in words way better than I can. Tsunami is about managing risk and I think the idea can be applied to any system or method of your own choice.

The Tsunami method was originally introduced and presented on ForexFactory by fezmar, though the topic has since been “deleted” due to his friends not wanting him to share the method, it can still be found and read here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=514127

The basic premise of the Tsunami method is to Risk a little and be Rewarded A LOT. In fact, a 40R or higher is the basic goal by risking 5 pips to make 200. Every now and then you should hit a “Tsunami” wave where the R could double or triple or more as your account increases by hundreds of a %. Fezmar says he hits 3-4 Tsunami trades per year, with the bulk of trades hitting breakeven, 40R, or getting stopped out for 5 pips.

In order to become a Tsunami Trader you must master two things:
1. Becoming comfortable and disciplined enough to take many BE trades and many small losses before catching a winner.
2. Identifying a pattern that offers a high chance of getting your trade to BE along with an entry where you can risk just 5-10 pips for this to happen.

Since we are anticipating many small losses and BE trades before catching a winner, risk size must remain consistent until we increase are account and can recalculate. For example, if you have a $1,000 account and you want to risk 2% per trade, you are risking $20 per trade. And if your stop is 5 pips, that means you can trade 4 mini lots (4 mini lots = $4/pip, 5 pip stop X $4 = $20). However, if you lose 20 trades in a row, your account balance will now be $600 ($20 X 20 = $400, $1,000 - $400 = $600).

As your account decreases many methods would require your lot size to decrease along with it, but with the Tsunami method you must keep risking $20 per trade until you either bust or hit a nice winner.

The reason we keep the lot size constant as the account naturally decreases is because when we do hit a winner it must make an impact on the account. If we look at our first example where our account is now down to $600 and we risked 2% of $600, we would only be risking $12 per trade now. With a 5 pip stop, that means we can only trade 2.4 mini lots ($2.4 * 5 = $12). Now if we hit our 200 pip winner here, our reward will be $480, which brings the account balance back up to $1,080. Is that worth a 20 loss drawdown? What if we had 30 losers? 40?

However, if we keep the lot size constant, when we hit a 200 pip winner after 20 losses our gain should be $800 ($4 X 200), bringing the account balance up to $1,400. That seems better, and we can now recalculate the risk size going forward based on this amount, so our 2% risk would now be $28 per trade.

Wow, what a eye-opener for me! Seldom have opportunity to read such a good thread about Trade Management! Pity it was in recycle bin already!

I spend quick time to browse through Fez's post, what I don't understand is he says "..entry is not important...he doesn't even care on how the MN or W1's main trend going...he doesn't care about session...he doesn't care much on news...!!!

However, in my humble opinion, in order to move your entry to BE, your trade must move in your direction! If we open 20 trades and all 20 trades hit our Stop-losses, we will be in trouble right? We need to have a entry methods/system (or pattern as your friend Matt are telling above) which can make you win 60% of time.... Am I missing anything?


PS: I see your posts at Buy Low, Sell High thread as well, do you solely based on candle pattern for entry now?

I'm with you mate. For the longest time, I have this strong believe that small risk big reward is not necessary if, IF, I win 98% of the time. In reality if 1 lose can set you back 3-4 winners, it makes losing such a painful experience, even if your win rate is pretty high entering a trade can still be quite stressful.

Not exactly. Let's make an example. Say you risk $10 every trade.

a) stop 100 pips, TP 200 pips, that's 2R meaning you make $20 at best right?
b) stop 10 pips, TP 200 pips, that's 20R. You make $200. You can lose 15-16 times and still ended up in the green.

Now this is something you need to experiment and find what works for you.

You can win 60%, making 1R each time.
You can win 10%, making 10R each time.
You can win 1%, making 100R each time.

All 3 scenario you end up in profit. No one can really tell which will work best for you, best you can do is spend time and experiment for yourself. I for example am winning around 20% making between 5-15R.

The danger is that you don't know when your win will come and 15 losing streak will surely impact your psychology in a real bad way.

It's a combination of everything I suppose. I used to trade price action pattern... now I use what I know about pattern and apply the knowledge of Market Maker on top of it. Market Maker is the idea that FOREX market is the most manipulative market in the world. There are big players pushing price at will, hunting your stop. The basic of Market Maker is explained in the Youtube I posted above, and Captain Jack is the best trader when it comes to reading the mind of the big players. Do check them out if you have a chance.

First trade in 2 weeks. NZD/USD

I was looking to short NZD today following New Zealand's lowest CPI in 2 years.
Looking at daily/h4 I marked 0.76-0.77 as the zone I wanted to short.


Price fell initially and I thought I was missing the ride.
Then just a moment ago it came back up and looks like was forming a 2 bar reversal on m15.
Got in a bit late as I was occupied with something else so stop wasn't very small, around 25-30 pips.


Anyway it's moving nicely. Moved stop to BE when it hit 7 pips. TP is at 0.76.


Had a few other pairs still waiting for price to retrace back to the levels I marked.

EJ waiting for retest of 73.6 fib for possibly reversal pattern.


Same as UJ with 61.8 fib


XTI/USD doesn't seem like it's coming back up anytime soon. I really want to short this pair, again, but need to be patience and wait for a better price.

OK that was faster than I expected. Thought I'd check NZD/USD again tomorrow. Right before I closed my chart for the nightprice jumped downwards missing my TP at 0.76 only 1 pips... so I closed it.



Got around 2, 2.5R. Not too bad I suppose.

GBP/AUD price moved up. Could be a stop hunt to kill bears already shorting?

m30 potential abc pattern. Entered with 12 pips stop. Will BE at +12 pips.


Targeting the recent low 300-350 pips below.

Moved stop to BE. Leaving it alone now.

Out at BE +4 pips. Will be looking for another short entry at the top of this range.
Most it went was 34 pips, close to 3R.

With QE looming ahead, shorting EUR maybe a good bias for tonight.

EUR/USD side way range. Maybe the big players will use Min Bid as an excuse to hunt stop higher, around the top of that wick to the left. I'm watching.


Waiting for EUR/JPY as well to go back to 73.6 fib.

QE 60 billion/mo. Exceeded the 50 b expectation. I have 3 position opened EUR/USD, I'm going to hold them until I go bald.



Not gonna even set SL/TP on them.

Well I'll see how bad the swap is. My leverage is 1:400. If swap goes too much into negative I will reconsider.

Hi, Wolf

How's doing? Looks you ditched TDI or TMS as a whole....
Anyway, good to see your charts.

Thanks,