News trading discussion - continuation

GBPUSD

At 7:45 am EST the ECB will release their Interes Rate Decision. Expected to hold at 0.05 after a prior of 0.05.
Most eyes will be looking for the ECB Press Conference, where Mario Draghi will talk about whether to begin a Quantitative Easing program or not. You can watch it live here: http://www.bloomberg.com/tv/livestream/
Good luck everybody!

EURUSD

USDJPY

ECB Press Conference

Friday
11:30
01/23/15
1 Comments
GB Retail Sales HOT!
(GB Retail Sales), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Possible movement is realized on the news.

[GBP/USD] Retail Sales

Was with +10 points profit, but finally Breakeven.

Trailing stop , friend!

USDCAD

[USD/CAD] Core CPI / Core Retail Sales

Too high spread, another breakevenBy the way, it was a nice week.

See you on monday, enjoy the weekend!

All a good weekend!​

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Followed by Oceania whether for the ECB and the Bank of Canada

Markets continued to storm floods the deck head of the monetary changes that started in 2015: the franc last week, the ECB is expected on this, and all of a sudden - the Bank of Canada. But this is not the end but only the beginning.

The Bank of Canada lowered its benchmark interest rate from 1% to 0.75%

This was preceded by a decrease in the Canadian GDP forecast by the IMF, the reduction in supply in the industrial sector, and of course the decline in oil prices from the export of which Canada particularly dependent. Rate is reduced, and the official reasons were risks of deflation and weak labor market. Friday gave its confirmation that: the data consumer price index -0.7% compared to November, annualized 2.2%, forecast 2.3% (far away, certainly to deflation). However, some economists believe that the corridor for further easing regulator remains, although the skid, said: "I can not say that we will cut rates again, if oil prices continue to fall."

Squeeze from the Bank of Canada:

- Forecasts suggest oil at $ 60 per barrel.
- Strong and weak CAD States may compensate for the loss of low oil prices
- Sam the Bank of Canada lowered the forecast for GDP growth for 2015 from 2.4% to 2.1%.
- The economy will be fully bled by the end of 2016

The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure from both the decision of the Bank of Canada, and by the decisions of the ECB.

ECB launches a program of quantitative easing

in the amount of 60 billion euros per month, Draghi believes that these measures will increase the medium-term inflation expectations. It is important that a substantial majority of the Central Bank acted as the beginning of a new bond-buying program, after that is also important, Merkel supported: "We respect the decision of the ECB, as a fully independent institution." And we are already seeing the Euro at 1.12: program support, and its volume exceeded the expected forecast of 10 billion., However, does not cease to criticize Weidmann: "This can lead to the neglect of fiscal discipline" - he said.

Next week is not less extravagant

Australia next week publish its data on the consumer price index - true enough, and more than ever this topic. Rumor has it that the Reserve Bank of Australia and New Zealand, followed by their brethren, may reduce interest rates. AUD against the US dollar is already at five-year lows, and it is not the limit, reduction in iron ore prices and rising expectations about the fact that interest rates in Australia will decline in the coming months, and have exerted downward pressure on the Australian dollar.

New Zealand next week and did give its decision on the rate. Traders do not expect it to reduce this time, they most likely scenario - a departure (and the relevant comments of the Bank) from the desire to raise rates (because the emphasis was set expectations on such a scenario).

Also will make its decision and the Fed. FOMC also meets this week. Expect it to change? While it is not necessary. Still warm corpse of QE3, in order to continue with this ritual. On Monday flew a headline: "US Fed is not ready to postpone raising interest rates despite falling yields on 10-year bonds." It says only that the expectations of the markets now are not adjusted in any way, even though weak retail sales, falling oil prices and the weakening of inflation. Bullard: "I think it is very important for the US to start normalizing monetary policy, even when we begin to normalize policy, the level of the base rate will be very low." Sharp turns here is not expected, but slight changes in the text of the protocol the US Federal Reserve will be reflected in the markets is not weak.

Britain plans to report on GDP growth on Tuesday, it will be preliminary data for the fourth quarter of 2014 - they are among the most significant indicators of GDP, as well as the most "first". Tabor voting for the interest rate goes blank: 2 MPC members abandoned their votes "for" the rate increase in the last meeting, which was known by the Minutes of the Bank, published this week. In parallel, we see the improved situation on the labor market, but still the same problem with weak inflation data remains. The Bank of England will take a neutral position, and since changing market expectations in line with this sterling under pressure. Risks to inflation in the short term are the determining factor for the Bank of England. Inflation in the UK in December fell to 0.5%, well below the target level of 2%, but the main reason for its decline is the drop in oil prices.

Calendar sufficiently rich, important every day since Tuesday.

Monday
11:00
01/26/15
EU climate IFO Business
(EU German Ifo Business Climate), the EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 18.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Good luck everybody

Tuesday
11:30
01/27/15
1 new comments
GB Preliminary GDP growth HOT!
(GB Prelim GDP), England, GBPUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% chance of trading

Tuesday
15:30
01/27/15
Index US durable goods orders
(US Core Durable Goods Orders), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.

Good luck everybody.

Thoughts on "smart traders"

GB Preliminary GDP growth
GB Prelim GDP

Pound during that time has undergone many strikes as inflation continues to decline, the ECB runs the program of quantitative easing, the Bank of England minutes indicated a lack of hawks in the camp raising interest rates, the dollar presses ...
Nevertheless, the press swept words Kristin Forbes (Bank of England), which states that the global growth of the world economy could trigger a rise in interest rates earlier than expected this market. By the way, and the British labor market is not as bad as it turned out. In other words, the Bank of England warns us: the rate increase may occur earlier market expectations (mid-2016). Monitor the macro-statistics.
Preliminary data from the fourth quarter GDP expected by economists at the level of 0.6%.

GBPUSD

Attachment

Crude oil

Why Oil Prices Will Be "Lower For Longer" In 3 Simple Charts: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-simple-charts

Thoughts on "smart traders"

Vice-President of the Swiss National Bank Dantin: We were forced to abandon the lower limit for the euro / franc

ZURICH, January 27. (Dow Jones). At the Swiss National Bank had no other option but to abandon the lower limit for the euro / Swiss franc, which he defended for 3.5 years, as the single European currency is no longer a suitable benchmark for the franc. This was stated by Vice-President of the Swiss National Bank, Jean-Pierre Dantin in an interview TagesAnzeiger, released Tuesday.
The decision of the Swiss central bank to waive the lower limit for the euro / franc was taken when the upward pressure on the currency forced the bank to implement more significant intervention in the foreign exchange market, the volume of which in January could reach 100 billion francs (US $ 166.26 billion USA), said Dantin.
The European Central Bank (ECB) to buy bonds can flood the market with the euro, and the "natural magnet for this liquidity would have been franc," said Dantin.
In the Swiss National Bank recognized that the failure to limit the force of the franc was a tightening of monetary policy, but the bank is still willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market, he said.
Dantin do not agree with the assumption that the central bank of Switzerland mean the beginning of a currency war. According to him, although the ECB's decision to start quantitative easing is in the field of monetary policy, it can have spillover effects on other regions.
"Quantitative easing in Europe was reflected in Switzerland", - he said.
Responding to a question about whether or not Swiss National Bank to think about a new currency strategy, Dantin noted that Singapore peg its currency to a trade-weighted basket of currencies deserves attention