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  • #952,701
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:23pm Jan 21, 2015 8:23pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} and dont forget its not only about opening another account after that... how about your credit status .... its a domino effect.... btw whats your view of today...missed your comments (especially the "spicy" ones)
expecting whiplashes today, but overall trend stays intact.
so it may drive EURUSD up, but expect me to continously enter shorts on increments if eurusd drives higher. first entry is 1.1650 again, then ever 50/100 pips thereafter.
will see the reaction...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,702
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:28pm Jan 21, 2015 8:28pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} im hearing from some of my friends working in brokerages, apparently they can file a prohibition with regulators on clients who have negative balance who are not willing to pay up the differences to put the balance back to 0, if they dont pay up they are in technical default and these brokerages can file a bankruptcy notice on the said clients. That will prevent people from passing any background checks to open new forex margin accounts.... its literally puttinga red flag next to the name when a background check is beign conducted on account...
Good, should be no different than a normal brokerage account.

The problem with Forex- and will soon be regulated....is these mini account holders are often 18-22, and have no clue what credit actually is, how it effects EVERYTHING, and how to manage it. Most I doubt own a credit card....but yet deposit 200 to 10,000 in a forex account (that they lied on during the "what are you worth" bull shit) and want a mulligan once they overleverage and end up owing $150k. Meanwhile, 4 years down the road they want to buy a house...and guess what? 540 credit score. Too bad buddy- bankrupt at 26.
  • #952,703
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:29pm Jan 21, 2015 8:29pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} expecting whiplashes today, but overall trend stays intact. so it may drive EURUSD up, but expect me to continously enter shorts on increments if eurusd drives higher. first entry is 1.1650 again, then ever 50/100 pips thereafter. will see the reaction...

are you talking about a "first second" reaction or daily one?

in case of a daily (overall) reaction

how come? why dont you expect the "surprise" (to you)...of at least a 60mln/month QE?

also why are brokers afraid of greek elections having the leverage decreased? i cant understand it at all....
(btw greece is not going to take part to the "party" its participation -or not- will be announced 2 weeks later min. or after the second round of elections max)
  • #952,704
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:35pm Jan 21, 2015 8:35pm
Quoting KGP
{quote} are you talking about a "first second" reaction or daily one? in case of a daily (overall) reaction how come? why dont you expect the "surprise" (to you)...of at least a 60mln/month QE? also why are brokers afraid of greek elections having the leverage decreased? i cant understand it at all.... (btw greece is not going to take part to the "party" its participation -or not- will be announced 2 weeks later min. or after the second round of elections max)
no first or second reaction.i trade daily chart.

heres the problem, right now im seeing market 70% retail investors are expecting QE to start in Q1. theres this risk to every side of the story.... the "what-ifs"
theres always this wildcard factor that can screw things up.... i mean heck look at SNB....
you need to know how much risk you can tolerate. so you dont get surprised by either outcomes.... no body truly knows draghi. soooo yea.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,705
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:52pm Jan 21, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting Sansa
{quote} I'm new to Forex, what do you mean with "they will get your ass". Do I have to pay it back if I loose all my money and my account goes negative?
Yes, if you get negative numbers in your account, that means you owe your broker. Your account will be put through collectors if broker decide not to 'forgive' you.

My good suggestion is do no place any position in EU seconds before the news hit the wire. Trading such news is no difference than flipping a coin and this shouldn't be your long term trading solution.

Good luck.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #952,706
  • Jan 21, 2015 8:54pm Jan 21, 2015 8:54pm
Quoting fxjorr
what QE stands for?
In short. It means printing money, massive money printing. In theory, currency would depreciate through QE. And of course, a deflation risk while EURO is already below zero CPI.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #952,707
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:00pm Jan 21, 2015 9:00pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} In short. It means printing money, massive money printing. In theory, currency would depreciate through QE. And of course, a deflation risk while EURO is already below zero CPI.
actually, half part right half part wrong.
please do not take this wrong but i want to make sure you dont get this wrong...
now Europe is having pretty low inflation reading....
what is inflation? inflation reflects teh increase in prices of goods and services relative to the money...
so say for an example a piece of meat costs you 100 to buy today, 1 year later it costs 102., so more money is needed to buy the same product.... meaning value of the money depreciated, or the value of the products (or services) apprecaited....

see the money value depreciated mention??
well if QE increases the supply of money , and the value of money falls, money of money falls makes the goods and services less affordable.... thats inflation.....

so the purpose of QE is to increase inflation by devaluing the money reflecting the increase in the value of goods and services.


QE = Increase supply of money => Depreciates Value of Money => Increase Value of Goods and Servies relative to money => resulting in Inflation (What Europe and the rest of the world wants...)
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,708
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:15pm Jan 21, 2015 9:15pm
Where is Chicky? I miss his philosophical samples (and examples)
  • #952,709
  • Edited 11:51pm Jan 21, 2015 9:18pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting thelostpip
Im a bit confused ECB rumors 1 trillion QE and everyone thinks Bull? Seriously, someone enlighten me because I am very confused
Quoting victoriajen
Another slow day for the EUR/USD pair. I am sure that after tomorrow's ECB rate decision and Mario Draghi's press-conference the market would be anything but slow. And then there're the Greek elections on Sunday. This is like the calm before the storm.
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Price volatility. People are reacting; this is the norm. Most likely seeing a flood of eurozone bonds/stocks being bought that's causing this rise. A QE is better than no QE for europe as a collective whole. Stocks, of course ,affect forex prices. You get the idea.
Quoting ExForX
{quote} How I understand is that a 500bn QE is already priced in. So this news is kinda "been there, done that" and it's actually positive for eurusd. However I also read it should continue down after the initial moves happened. Not sure how / when that will be.
Below is the QE reference I collected in the past weeks,

QE Options

  1. THREE QE Options on the Table

    1. - The most likely course is the ECB buys government bonds in amounts proportionate to each euro zone state’s shareholding in the bank.

    But objections from the Germany’s Bundesbank to the ECB taking on sovereign credit risk have raised two compromise solutions, as suggested by recent comments from ECB chief economist Peter Praet:

    2. - National central banks buy the debt of their own governments, so the risk remains with the country in question.
    3. - ECB buys only triple-A rated bonds, hoping that investors would turn to the lower-rated debt of weaker euro zone government which, while riskier, offers a better return.

    Option 3 is less likely to happen because: If the ECB were unwilling to take on the risk of holding Greek, Italian, Spanish or Portuguese debt, private investors might ask themselves why they should do it.


YES on QE

  1. 1/20/15 Slovak says QE would help eurozone avoid deflation.
  2. 1/20/15 Knot says QE is pretty mush a done deal.

    1. Draghi presented QE plan to Merkel and Schaeuble.
    2. QE plan won’t include Greek bonds due to rating


  4. 1/19/15 Former ECB member Smaghi says ECB must make a decision on QE even if it's not unanimous.
  5. 1/19/15 Hollande says ECB will do QE this week.
  6. 1/19/15 Bundesbank striving to put limits on QE. It seemed like QE is coming out, and Bundesbank is fighting for its limits.
  7. 1/14/15 SNB moved EUR/CHF below benchmark 1.2000 hinting ECB would likely release QE in 1/22 meeting.
  8. 1/12 Makuch says ECB ready for sovereign QE if measures applied so far not sufficient.
  9. 1/12/15 Majority on ECB council (7 members) in favor of QE.
    Decision is expected to be made on the next ECB conference.
  10. 1/12/15 UBS chairman Weber: Draghi likely to to announce QE on 1/22.
  11. 1/12/15 Ignazio Visco, head of Italy’s central bank urges QE as deflation approaches.


NO on QE

  1. 1/17/15 Merkel adviser says ECB should be 'patient on QE.
  2. 1/17/15 Vasiliauskas is very flexible on QE and stated situation in eurozone is NOT particularly good.
  3. 1/12/15 IFO Sinn says no need for QE as ECB using deflation as an excuse to help weak nation.
  4. 1/09/15 Hansson does NOT support QE as dropping oil price is 'wonderful news' for economy but tricky for inflation expectations.
  5. 1/8/15 Coeure says it's too early for QE.


Additional Notes Related to QE

  1. 1/19/15 One of Europe's most influential economists has warned that the quantitative easing measures seen being unveiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) this week could create deep market volatility.
  2. 1/19/15 Merkel says this is not a week of destiny for euro.
  3. 1/12/15 Nowotny says,
    ECB should do QE sooner rather than later.
    Inflation outlook is is significantly below goal.
    ECB is discussing 'range of options' on QE.
    ECB is far from price stability goal.
  4. 1/12/15 ”A senior central bank source”: Greek election may be factor in ECB QE Decision.
  5. 1/8/15 'Deflation' was caused by dropping oil price. Low energy helps economy. It's still too early for QE.
  6. 12/4/14 QE talk into new year 2015, Jan, but no promise and we need to see more. QE is good for EUR, but lacking promise is bad for it.

Although we are having more 'Yes' than 'No', the obvious risks I would concern and possibly NOT having QE are below,

  1. Greece election result - Syriza holds the lead, and is very likely to put up a goos Grexit.
  2. Oil price hasn't bounced.
  3. EURO is in 'deflation' based on its CPI. Is it caused by the oil price as ECB stated? WE DO NOT KNOW, and ECB didn't know either.

So why NOT give another month as the EUR/CHF dust and 'Grexit' are settling down??

Anyway, good luck trading tonight. I would personally just stay flat and watch till market settles.

If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #952,710
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:26pm Jan 21, 2015 9:26pm
GREAT summary fxsaywhat.

I too wonder if they will postpone it, but after leak today- I expect an announcement tomorrow.
  • #952,711
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:39pm Jan 21, 2015 9:39pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} {quote} {quote} {quote} Below is the QE reference I collected in the past weeks, QE Options THREE QE Options on the Table 1. - The most likely course is the ECB buys government bonds in amounts proportionate to each euro zone state’s shareholding in the bank. But objections from the Germany’s Bundesbank to the ECB taking on sovereign credit risk have raised two compromise solutions, as suggested by recent comments from ECB chief economist Peter Praet: 2. - National central banks buy the debt of their own governments, so the risk remains...


Wow. Thank you. perfect.

I just figured that after todays leak, QE announcement is all but a done deal. Ill be up watching at 430am my time.

love my job
  • #952,712
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:45pm Jan 21, 2015 9:45pm
LL required for bulls. Looking for 1.1478
  • #952,713
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:47pm Jan 21, 2015 9:47pm
Wait for another month?
No, I don't think ECB can afford that. The Deflation Problem is too severe in Euro zone currently.
It is not just resulted by the low oil price, it's a kind of technical deflation.
Like a dying horse, every minute counts for his death.
  • #952,714
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:57pm Jan 21, 2015 9:57pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} the 1585 is free money...1567 is the only annoying thing here... why speak about 1572?...
yesterday the PP has hold for buyers... i hope you all bought it at 1567...today is ECB day, let's see what will happens...
Quoting Magicmen
LL required for bulls. Looking for 1.1478
the 1478 looks too low for today... we will probably only parking at PP 1609(130Pips higher)...
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #952,715
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:00pm Jan 21, 2015 10:00pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} yesterday the PP has hold for buyers... i hope you all bought it at 1567...today is ECB day, let's see what will happens... {image}
sry but i still dont trust your system.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #952,716
  • Edited 10:25pm Jan 21, 2015 10:12pm | Edited 10:25pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} sry but i still dont trust your system.
...thx for the compliment...i don't need you to trust me...why say this?...useless comment...i don't trust YOU TOO when you talk about your FANCIFUL "QE" from ECB? that is to your mind suposed to start "only in january"?...the "QE", even if its an improper word, has already started 3 months ago, when they broke the old 2340 support and today will probably adds some minors things to it...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #952,717
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:29pm Jan 21, 2015 10:29pm
they will be NO QE

if they have..

market will move early than expected...same like before
  • #952,718
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:29pm Jan 21, 2015 10:29pm
I Think I'll pass this ECB QE Announcement. My Bias is bear but seeing so many people shorting EUR make me rethink if I should enter a position.
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  • #952,719
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:38pm Jan 21, 2015 10:38pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
...
Now thats what I call analysis.
Really appreciated.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #952,720
  • Jan 21, 2015 11:09pm Jan 21, 2015 11:09pm
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