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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #61
  • Jan 16, 2015 9:01am Jan 16, 2015 9:01am
All a good weekend.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #62
  • Jan 17, 2015 1:53am Jan 17, 2015 1:53am
Tuesday
12:00
01/20/15
EU German ZEW
(EU German ZEW Economic Sentiment), EU, EURUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 25.00 points in the first minute after the release.
5% probability trades

Tuesday
23:45
01/20/15
NZ Consumer Price Index HOT!
(NZ CPI), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #63
  • Jan 18, 2015 9:54pm Jan 18, 2015 9:54pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Thursday many will carry into the ditch.


Switzerland held a training session for extreme driving, many flew off the track, but we will have another turn in this rally, at the approach to which fingers frantically begin to compress the steering wheel making.
Top events of the last week:
- Swiss National Bank declined to peg the franc to the rate of 1.2 in relation to the Euro, it is not only led to a tsunami quotes and huge losses for traders, but has already caused a series of bankruptcies of brokerage firms.
- US retail sales were unexpectedly weak. Analysts have tried not to dramatize the event, but its part of the turmoil in the prospects for an early interest rate increase by the Fed's release is still made. The dynamics of the average wage in the US is still weak.
- UK plunges into deflationary processes, the annual consumer price index fell to 0.5%. Inflation does not give the reasons for the Bank of England rate changes in the near term.
On Thursday, you may lose your deposit / part
Be vigilant. Top Event upcoming trading week - ECB decision. January 22 issue will be resolved locally period - Has the European Central Bank to the program of quantitative easing in order to avoid the possibility of deflation in the eurozone. Markets set that attack, says a lot of factors that's about it: this is not only the application, Mario Draghi, or a decision of the European Court on the legality of such a program, but also the specific actions of the Swiss Bank, which gives her a certain market signal: "We are ready, and you get ready. "In any case (ECB QE will start or not start) Euro expect concussion. The extent of these shocks will estimate is closer to the event.
If too hot pieces of food, swallowed whole, make sure you begin to ache stomach, and at some point you're not happy with your appetite. So here. Volatility of the ECB to curb hard enough, from its inception equipment and finishing the final chord from your broker. Think - you good rider and soak whether this stallion. Take seriously this release and start preparing now.
Of the planned activities, we are waiting for many more interesting events this week, and as shown by the beginning of 2015 - could also be surprises abound: keep ears open and his hand on the pulse of rhythm.
Note also:
Tuesday, NZ Consumer Price Index
Wednesday, Minutes of the Bank of England
Thursday, Decision ECB QE
Friday, CN production index PMI, GB Retail Sales, CA The core consumer price index
PS On Monday, the US holiday (Martin Luther King Day), attentive to market liquidity.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #64
  • Jan 18, 2015 9:55pm Jan 18, 2015 9:55pm
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #65
  • Jan 20, 2015 4:13am Jan 20, 2015 4:13am
EURUSD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_6.png Size: 162 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #66
  • Jan 20, 2015 7:39am Jan 20, 2015 7:39am
USDCAD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_8.png Size: 127 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #67
  • Jan 20, 2015 12:13pm Jan 20, 2015 12:13pm
Wednesday
17:00
01/21/15
CA overnight rate BC
(CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
1% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #68
  • Jan 20, 2015 12:32pm Jan 20, 2015 12:32pm
NZ Consumer Price Index
NZ CPI


We already wrote about the general trend of weakening global inflation, the time has come, and New Zealand.
According to analysts, inflation for the IV quarter 2014 must retreat to 0% for the period, while in annual terms, the indicator will go down to 0.9%. In this scenario, the consumer price index will go for the bottom line of the RBNZ's target range (1.3 %%).
In any case, even if an error occurs in the inflation forecast remains at the lower range, and its growth is still yet to leave her there, at the lower end. By the way, heard that China has shown the worst performance in 24 years of economic development?
probability of risk
1. Growth spread
2. "The Australian" delay
3. Scenario for the purchase of the momentum may be weaker
4. slip
It's nice that the pair is in a sideways motion.

In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
NZ Consumer Price Index
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
23/10/2014 -0.2 Fall 25 pairs
07/16/2014 -0.1 30 Fall couple
04/16/2014 35 0.2 Fall couple
01/20/2014 42 0.2 Growth couples
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #69
  • Jan 20, 2015 3:55pm Jan 20, 2015 3:55pm
NZDUSD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_9.png Size: 2 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_8.png Size: 140 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #70
  • Jan 20, 2015 8:20pm Jan 20, 2015 8:20pm
Quoting petermuller
Hey all, Nihilist's CSM or CC4 you are preferring to trade news? CSM is not working properly on me even though I downloaded everything required mentioned on the related thread. CC4 is working perfectly, and as I see on screenshots uploaded by vvFish's, CC4 is being used. But the creator of CC4 has mentioned that those two indicators are not the same and one should use Nihilist's. What do you guys think/use?
CSM .
CC4 is not consistently accurate. YOu need to make sure both files for CSM are in the indicator folder for it to work
  • #71
  • Jan 21, 2015 1:30am Jan 21, 2015 1:30am
Quoting vvFish
NZDUSD {image} {image}
What happened? High spread?

In the last few seconds before the news release I decided not to take the trade because I saw 15 points spread with my broker.

Good luck for today!
  • #72
  • Jan 21, 2015 2:06am Jan 21, 2015 2:06am
Quoting sEit89
{quote} What happened? High spread? In the last few seconds before the news release I decided not to take the trade because I saw 15 points spread with my broker. Good luck for today!

You're right, my friend.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #73
  • Jan 21, 2015 3:39am Jan 21, 2015 3:39am
GBPUSD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #74
  • Jan 21, 2015 5:39am Jan 21, 2015 5:39am
Quoting vvFish
Wednesday 17:00 01/21/15 CA overnight rate BC (CA Overnight Rate), Canada, USDCAD Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release. 1% probability trades.
Friend vvFish,

How should we trade this? I have been studying the past performances of USDCAD from the last months and I think it would be a very risky to trade this news due to the heavy rebounds. What dou you think abaout that?

Thank you in advance
  • #75
  • Jan 21, 2015 7:14am Jan 21, 2015 7:14am
Quoting sEit89
{quote} Friend vvFish, How should we trade this? I have been studying the past performances of USDCAD from the last months and I think it would be a very risky to trade this news due to the heavy rebounds. What dou you think abaout that? Thank you in advance
Trades are unlikely, the possibility of movement on the accompanying text. Although it is unlikely.
Everyone sells in a measure of risk.
The opening of the US market will show where the price can go.
Predict the behavior of news ahead I can not and do not want to.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #76
  • Jan 21, 2015 9:15am Jan 21, 2015 9:15am
USDCAD

Forecasts can not be trusted !!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_15.png Size: 130 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #77
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:06am Jan 21, 2015 10:06am
Quoting vvFish
USDCAD Forecasts can not be trusted !!!! {image} {image}
Congrats vvFish, very nice
  • #78
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:21am Jan 21, 2015 10:21am
Quoting sEit89
{quote} Congrats vvFish, very nice
Thank you my friend.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #79
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:25am Jan 21, 2015 10:25am
Thursday
17:30
01/22/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #80
  • Jan 21, 2015 10:32am Jan 21, 2015 10:32am
Possible movement is realized on the news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_17.png Size: 36 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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