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Trading Made Simple for Day Charts

  • #2,101
  • Jan 17, 2015 9:34am Jan 17, 2015 9:34am
The fallout continues from the Swiss National Bank policy change which will inject volatility into CHF and probably EUR trades/

Anyone in a UK or a USA broker with segregated accounts should be safe despite the posted losses which are huge. So far we see losses at FXCM @ $300M, Alpari UK @$200M, Barclays @ $200M, Deutche Bank @ $150M, and these are just the major institutions, so probably hundred of $millions lost elsewhere!

When you consider that a few days earlier, SNB said their Euro pegging policy was still good and then they pull the rug - they obviously knew the implications of what would happen.

Lessons Learned? Don't over leverage your accounts, Don't trade without stops, Don't trust central banks!
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,102
  • Jan 17, 2015 9:42am Jan 17, 2015 9:42am
I took a few hits during the SNB fallout, as it did spike a few currency pairs.

EUR/AUD closed out on its TS setting (not a result of the SNB actions!), which in hindsight, probably should have been set 50 pips above the 200EMA. That would have been a SL of 250pips on TP3 which would have still protected over 200pips of profit. If this had not been stopped out, then there was an extra 500pips to gain. No tears over spilled milk - this set of trades was still worth a total of 720pips.

Lessons Learned here is that you can open up your SL on the TP3 position and the 200EMA is a Dynamic Zone which is often respected by PA - learn to use it on the day charts.

Next week should be interesting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDDaily 1-17-2015.png Size: 35 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,103
  • Jan 17, 2015 10:42am Jan 17, 2015 10:42am
For those of you asking generic questions, such as: how to enter, use of indicators, how does TDI work, etc.

Read Post #1 and the referenced posts / threads / top traders / study the charts that I post.

This does take some reading, but well worth the investment of your time and effort. I have been in the Forex scene for the past 5 years - most of it reading and testing methodologies - this does not happen overnight.

Every method will have losses, so be prepared to take some hits along the way - after all, you do have to offer the forex gods a sacrifice once in a while
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,104
  • Jan 17, 2015 11:04am Jan 17, 2015 11:04am
I am trying to be really disciplined on trading chosen pairs only - hence the attached screenshot - I can watch all my selected pairs and review possible entries as they appear on the new day candle.

Note the distinct lack of any CHF pairs!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Britpip7 8up.gif Size: 149 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,105
  • Jan 17, 2015 1:50pm Jan 17, 2015 1:50pm
Quoting hmesquita
{quote} Hello, I started trading daily using your method, and I really like it? Is this you current template for trading? I only see a moving average, TDI and ATR. Do you take your decisions using this indicators only, or do you use any others. I've been using EMA 233 because I read on your posts that you avoid trading when price is heading EMA 233. Thanks
with regards to the 233ema, this was a style that Big E was testing with a 23 ema.

I have since reverted to the 200ema and dropped the 23ema.

If price is moving towards the 200ema, you need to have at least the ATR7 value of pips space between PA and the 200ema to make it worthwhile, as PA will often pause / bounce back off the 200ema.

If PA breaks through the 200ema, then consider setting your SL at least 50 pips on the other side of it to give the PA some room to move. See my comments in post # 2102
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,106
  • Jan 17, 2015 4:41pm Jan 17, 2015 4:41pm
Quoting Britpip7
The fallout continues from the Swiss National Bank policy change which will inject volatility into CHF and probably EUR trades/ Anyone in a UK or a USA broker with segregated accounts should be safe despite the posted losses which are huge. So far we see losses at FXCM @ $300M, Alpari UK @$200M, Barclays @ $200M, Deutche Bank @ $150M, and these are just the major institutions, so probably hundred of $millions lost elsewhere! When you consider that a few days earlier, SNB said their Euro pegging policy was still good and then they pull the rug -...
Add Everest to the list - main hedge fund closing after being on the wrong side of the CHF move! $800M?

CitiGroup loses $150M

Getting uglier by the day - and there will be more as the fund managers disclose more losses next week
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,107
  • Jan 17, 2015 8:41pm Jan 17, 2015 8:41pm
Dear Britpip,

When we check Weekly chart for trend direction what should we look?Should we only get D1 TDI crosses acording to Weeky TDI(if W1 TDI cross for up side we only consider D1 buy trade & W1 cross down side we only get D1 sell trade only)

Pls explain me because when i back-tested i found some times D1 tdI come from 32 OR 68 area But in that time weekly TDI just cross for opposite side.

So pls advise what should we consider when looking weekly trend?

Thanks,
Helanka
  • #2,108
  • Jan 18, 2015 11:32am Jan 18, 2015 11:32am
Quoting Helanka
Dear Britpip, When we check Weekly chart for trend direction what should we look?Should we only get D1 TDI crosses acording to Weeky TDI(if W1 TDI cross for up side we only consider D1 buy trade & W1 cross down side we only get D1 sell trade only) Pls explain me because when i back-tested i found some times D1 tdI come from 32 OR 68 area But in that time weekly TDI just cross for opposite side. So pls advise what should we consider when looking weekly trend? Thanks,
Weekly charts take a while to reverse and generate a TDI cross, the weekly will typically lag the day chart by a few days.

For reversals, you could wait for the APB/HA bar to change colour before verifying on the Day chart, but you will miss out on the earlier day chart entries.

I prefer to operate mainly on the day charts and use these to judge the trend - you can still take the weekly charts for setting the S/R levels and these often provide a good signal for reversals. If you have a strong weekly trend, then a day reversal is often a minor pullback/pause before resumption of the trend.

Additionally with the day TDI, entries with the RSI Price line and TSL both heading in the same direction as PA are the stronger entries, especially when they are coming out of the 32 / 68 zones, or the RSI is bouncing off of the TSL, as this gives a better confirmation of the move. Price bounces off of the 200EMA together with a TDI cross are also strong entries. IF the TSL is flat, this is often a sign of price consolidation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TDI - RSI and TSL moves.png Size: 64 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,109
  • Jan 18, 2015 11:38am Jan 18, 2015 11:38am
Quoting Britpip7
{quote} Add Everest to the list - main hedge fund closing after being on the wrong side of the CHF move! $800M? CitiGroup loses $150M Getting uglier by the day - and there will be more as the fund managers disclose more losses next week
If your 4X account is outside of the USA or UK, then you must ensure that your accounts are segregated and that the broker cannot use these funds to pay off debts. This should be a standard requirement in the USA / UK brokers, but still needs verification.

Just saw this post, which unfortunately describes a lot of traders in 4X

"It's amazing how many have real money accounts but no clue how brokers work or if their money is protected."
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,110
  • Jan 19, 2015 10:55am Jan 19, 2015 10:55am
Quoting Britpip7
{quote} Weekly charts take a while to reverse and generate a TDI cross, the weekly will typically lag the day chart by a few days. For reversals, you could wait for the APB/HA bar to change colour before verifying on the Day chart, but you will miss out on the earlier day chart entries. I prefer to operate mainly on the day charts and use these to judge the trend - you can still take the weekly charts for setting the S/R levels and these often provide a good signal for reversals. If you have a strong weekly trend, then a day reversal is often a...
Dear Britpip 7,

Could you pls share your TDI Visual Indicator.I think there is a different in TMS Watch Dog Indicator & your indicator.

Thanks
Helanka
  • #2,111
  • Jan 19, 2015 8:21pm Jan 19, 2015 8:21pm
Quoting Helanka
{quote} Dear Britpip 7, Could you pls share your TDI Visual Indicator.I think there is a different in TMS Watch Dog Indicator & your indicator. Thanks
I have RSI Price Line set to 4 and TSL set to 8 for the day charts.

Should not be a difference between the two.

It will also depend on which broker platform you are on and when the day candle starts - my day candle starts at 2pm Pacific
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,112
  • Jan 20, 2015 6:23am Jan 20, 2015 6:23am
Quoting Britpip7
{quote} I have RSI Price Line set to 4 and TSL set to 8 for the day charts. Should not be a difference between the two. It will also depend on which broker platform you are on and when the day candle starts - my day candle starts at 2pm Pacific
Dera Britpip 7,

My day candle start GMT+3 same as yours.therefore TDI setting amend as yours. still i am reading the thread & not finished.But trade real account according to the rules.
Attached here my GBPJPY D1 trade on last week.TP1 HIt & TP 2 Closed as BE trade.

Could you pls explain me Acording to our rules we set TS after TP1 close so when we back test how we can understand whether our TS hit or NOT?And also tell me Do you still Consider 21EMA before enter a TRADE?

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy-d1-forextime-ltd.png Size: 40 KB
Helanka
  • #2,113
  • Jan 20, 2015 7:37pm Jan 20, 2015 7:37pm
Dear Britpip 7,

Pls advise me is this is a valid setup or not?
TDI red green cross on D1 and w1 for UP side.Weekly Previous Weekly candle was a blue candle.Last fractal break.entry candle break & closed above 21 EMA.Entry candle ATR1 is 104 & ATR7 is 75.MBL at oversold area.TDI come from 32 Region.

I entered this trade but closed BE because of lack of My confidence.

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-d1-forextime-ltd.png Size: 37 KB
Helanka
  • #2,114
  • Jan 20, 2015 10:45pm Jan 20, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting Britpip7
I am trying to be really disciplined on trading chosen pairs only - hence the attached screenshot - I can watch all my selected pairs and review possible entries as they appear on the new day candle. Note the distinct lack of any CHF pairs! {image}
Dear Britpip 7,

Your image show there are 8 pairs.I need to know you usually trade these 8 pair only ? or you add currency pairs to your watch list once any currency pair comes to over sold or over bought area for looking possible reversal?

How you choose currency pairs to trade?

And other thing i need to know is think if i want to risk 2% of my Equity for any trade.According to your current rules you enter 3 trades for a good setup.
I want to know even i enter 3 trades my risk should be 2% or it should be 6% of my Equity.

Because now my account balance is 1100 usd so i trade 0.01 lot size(this is the smallest lot size).even if i enter 2 trade having set my SL 200 pip i have to enter 0.02 lot per trade.It will increase 2% my risk.
Helanka
  • #2,115
  • Jan 23, 2015 8:52pm Jan 23, 2015 8:52pm
Quoting Helanka
{quote} Dear Britpip 7, Your image show there are 8 pairs.I need to know you usually trade these 8 pair only ? or you add currency pairs to your watch list once any currency pair comes to over sold or over bought area for looking possible reversal? How you choose currency pairs to trade? And other thing i need to know is think if i want to risk 2% of my Equity for any trade.According to your current rules you enter 3 trades for a good setup. I want to know even i enter 3 trades my risk should be 2% or it should be 6% of my Equity. Because now my...
Helanka,

I was creating this post last week so your question is well timed and addresses an issue that many traders struggle with.

Risk / Money Management

When looking at % of account risk per trade, your initial % at risk can only be calculated once you know your Trade Size, your Stop Loss and your trading account leverage.

For Example:

Account Balance = $1,000
Trade Size / Lots = 0.05 = $50
Account Leverage = 100:1
Stop Loss = 100pips

With the above settings, your Total $ at risk = $50, which means that your % of Account at Risk = 5%

If your Stop Loss is set to 200pips, then your Total $ at risk = $100, which means that the you’re your Account at Risk = 10%. If you are trading with multiple entries, then this amount would be at risk for each trade entered.

The example for using the ATR(7) at trade entry for setting Stop Loss would look like this:

ATR(7) = 120pips
Stop Loss = 1.5XATR(7) = 180pips
Account Balance = $1,000
Trade Size / Lots = 0.05 = $50
Account Leverage = 100:1

With the above settings, your Total $ at risk = $90, which means that your % of Account at Risk = 9%. If the Account % being risked is too high, reduce the trade size. If you reduce the Stop Loss, all you do is pretty much guarantee that the trade will get stopped out.

The attached spreadsheet may help
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx 4x account risk.xlsx   10 KB | 599 downloads
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,116
  • Jan 23, 2015 9:07pm Jan 23, 2015 9:07pm
GBP/AUD entries from this week

Original entry on 1/21 was with 3 entries after the PA bounced off of 200EMA.

Took an earlier profit of 150pips based PA nearing the previous day fractal and set SL to BE on TP2 & TP3 - PA pulled back and both positions were stopped out before PA continued its upward trend.

Re-entered with a single entry and took an additional 110pips before Friday close

On the TDI, test how the TDI crosses work. I prefer to wait for a TDI cross to be confirmed with TSL and RSI both heading in the same direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPAUDDaily 1-23-2015.png Size: 54 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,117
  • Jan 23, 2015 9:21pm Jan 23, 2015 9:21pm
EUR/JPY

With all of activity on the Euro this week, it seemed a waste not to pick up some pips based on the freefall.

This is not a TDI entry as there is no cross and TDI is heavily oversold, which means that it is unlikely to give an accurate sell signal, and most traders using TDI will not add short trades in this region.

Entry was based on a pending short sell set to 133.75 which was below the zone - the previous day fractal lows were at 134.12 and 134.68.

TP1 manually closed for 115pips after a 170pip pullback. TP2 & TP3 set to BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily 1-23-2015.png Size: 45 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,118
  • Jan 23, 2015 9:32pm Jan 23, 2015 9:32pm
Quoting Helanka
{quote} Dear Britpip 7, Your image show there are 8 pairs.I need to know you usually trade these 8 pair only ? or you add currency pairs to your watch list once any currency pair comes to over sold or over bought area for looking possible reversal? How you choose currency pairs to trade? And other thing i need to know is think if i want to risk 2% of my Equity for any trade.According to your current rules you enter 3 trades for a good setup. I want to know even i enter 3 trades my risk should be 2% or it should be 6% of my Equity. Because now my...
With regards to how I select the 8 pairs on my screen - mostly based on the higher ATR7 values - I see no point in watching a pair with an ATR7 of 50 when there are many pairs running at an ATR7 of 100+

I also try to have pairs covering all of the major currencies and due to the Swiss National Bank's policy on the Euro, I had decided not to bother with any of the CHF pairs over a year ago - the EUR and CHF pairs ran pretty close, so I stuck with the EUR pairings.

If one of my 8 drops in volatility and starts to range with a smaller ATR7 then it will be dropped. This happened last year with the UJ so it was dropped. I have another day screen that just has HA on 16 pairs - if I see a colour change then it always worth a look, but the goal is to stick with my 8 selected pairs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Day HA 16up.gif Size: 112 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
  • #2,119
  • Jan 23, 2015 9:42pm Jan 23, 2015 9:42pm
Quoting Britpip7
GBP/AUD entries from this week Original entry on 1/21 was with 3 entries after the PA bounced off of 200EMA. Took an earlier profit of 150pips based PA nearing the previous day fractal and set SL to BE on TP2 & TP3 - PA pulled back and both positions were stopped out before PA continued its upward trend. Re-entered with a single entry and took an additional 110pips before Friday close On the TDI, test how the TDI crosses work. I prefer to wait for a TDI cross to be confirmed with TSL and RSI both heading in the same direction. {image}
Dear Britpip 7,

Thanks for your reply about Risk / Money Management.
regarding your GBPAUD 1st buy trade you have entered was against the trend.W1 TDI cross to down side & W1 ABP color is red.when you enter it not break previous day high so how you enter that trade in that point?because some time i missed trade when thinking above things.

Also pls tell me Your blue moving average setting(EMA5 SHIFT 2 apply closed or another setting)
Helanka
  • #2,120
  • Jan 23, 2015 9:46pm Jan 23, 2015 9:46pm
AUD/CAD Worth putting on a watch list after market open

Thought about running a pending sell stop to catch PA as it fell below the 200EMA, but had too many open trades with $ at risk. Now that the trades are closed or are now set to BE, this is now worth seriously reviewing.

TDI coming out of overbought region

PA reversing and closed below 200EMA and engulfed 1/21 candle

HA change to red

Day fractal is at 0.9772 - set entry below this level?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDCADDaily 1-23-2015.png Size: 51 KB
"To live with Passion, it takes Courage and Grace to survive"
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