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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #4,281
  • Jan 16, 2015 6:53am Jan 16, 2015 6:53am
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  • #4,282
  • Jan 16, 2015 7:03am Jan 16, 2015 7:03am
I'm a bit frustrated. Everytime I leave the desk, suddenly I miss a large move, lets say 60 points.
And when I stay, I'm stuck in range mode and close losing ones early.
I don't get it.
How do you manage not to miss large moves ?
Whatever the mind can conceive, the mind can believe, the mind can achieve.
  • #4,283
  • Jan 16, 2015 8:42am Jan 16, 2015 8:42am
Quoting deltaone
good morning, i still believe in the buy the dip scheme: bought again a dax etf position because we have -200 points from the last high. tp +200 = 10.100 but i allow myself to take shorts again today. good luck!
sold my last dax etf position: tp hit. +200
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,284
  • Jan 16, 2015 8:43am Jan 16, 2015 8:43am
Happy 21st to the Dax

10101
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  • #4,285
  • Jan 16, 2015 8:45am Jan 16, 2015 8:45am
Quoting twellve
Happy 21st to the Dax 10101 {image}
fresh new ath
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,286
  • Jan 16, 2015 8:52am Jan 16, 2015 8:52am
Quoting Fifth Axis
I'm a bit frustrated. Everytime I leave the desk, suddenly I miss a large move, lets say 60 points. And when I stay, I'm stuck in range mode and close losing ones early. I don't get it. How do you manage not to miss large moves ?
some use signal alerts, some use news alerts per email/sms. i think islander might help you with more infos about that (i don´t use any)
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,287
  • Jan 16, 2015 10:04am Jan 16, 2015 10:04am
"Wild thing...you make my heart sing...
You make everything
Groovy
I said wild thing...

Wild thing, I think I love you
But I wanna know for sure
Come on, hold me tight
I love you

Wild thing...you make my heart sing...
You make everything
Groovy
I said wild thing...

Wild thing, I think you move me
But I wanna know for sure
So come on, hold me tight
You move me"

Wild thing...you make my heart sing...
You make everything
Groovy
I said wild thing...

Wild thing, I think I love you
But I wanna know for sure
Come on, hold me tight
I love you

Wild thing...you make my heart sing...
You make everything
Groovy
I said wild thing...

Wild thing, I think you move me
But I wanna know for sure
So come on, hold me tight
You move me"

http://td.md.it-finance.com/ProRealT...g&purpose=file
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,288
  • Jan 16, 2015 11:19am Jan 16, 2015 11:19am
Assuming QE is announced, do you see the DAX below 10,000 in the near future?
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #4,289
  • Jan 16, 2015 11:29am Jan 16, 2015 11:29am
Quoting jcb94
Assuming QE is announced, do you see the DAX below 10,000 in the near future?
no. even if so, only temporarily - and i will buy that dip if it´s there.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,290
  • Jan 16, 2015 11:45am Jan 16, 2015 11:45am
Quoting deltaone
{quote} no. even if so, only temporarily - and i will buy that dip if it´s there.
hmm ok. I have seen predictions ranging from 8800-11,000 so there are many pips to be made or lost. I just wonder if the QE is a case of everying buying the rumour and factoring it in, and then we get a big sell off soon after it actually gets announced.
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #4,291
  • Jan 16, 2015 12:10pm Jan 16, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting jcb94
{quote} hmm ok. I have seen predictions ranging from 8800-11,000 so there are many pips to be made or lost. I just wonder if the QE is a case of everying buying the rumour and factoring it in, and then we get a big sell off soon after it actually gets announced.
that´s possible, but unlikely. qe is a game changer. look at dow/s&p after first qe.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,292
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:22pm Jan 16, 2015 1:22pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} that´s possible, but unlikely. qe is a game changer. look at dow/s&p after first qe.
When it was announced, it rallied for a couple of days before selling off to a price lower than before. When the QE was actually started it gained several % and then gave back all gains + more.
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #4,293
  • Jan 16, 2015 1:38pm Jan 16, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting jcb94
{quote} When it was announced, it rallied for a couple of days before selling off to a price lower than before. When the QE was actually started it gained several % and then gave back all gains + more.
1) that´s likely - and that´s why i´m bullish in the short run
2) that´s possible - and if so, i will add more stocks to my portfolio because that dip you described was a great opportunity to buy (and i missed it, one of my biggest mistakes in finance). there are no alternatives for investors: cash has no interest, investment grade government bonds are no better, gold has no interest/dividends, real estate is illiquid and expansive referring to the cash flows - so what do you think pensions funds will buy?

i´ve bought the first tranche in october, and it´s @+18%:

Depot-Gesamtübersicht (erstellt am 16.01.2015 um 20:19)
Name des Depots:
Gesamtwert des Depots:107.370,90EUR
Performance seit Kauf:16.489,90EUR
Performance seit Kauf in Prozent:18,16%
Performance real. GUV:0EUR
Performance gesamt:16.489,90EUR
Depot-Einzelwerte
Bestand/StückBezeichnungWKNISINKurs aktuellDevisenkursWährungBörseWert der Position in EURDatum der KursstellungUhrzeit der Kursstellung
100ALLIANZ SE840400DE0008404005142,5EURXetra14.250,0016.01.201517:35:27
100BASF SEBASF11DE000BASF11172,67EURXetra7.267,0016.01.201517:35:13
100CATERPILLAR INC. REGISTERED SHARES DL 1850598US149123101583,330,8671USDNYSE7.225,1716.01.201520:03:59
100JOHNSON & JOHNSON853260US4781601046103,410,8671USDNYSE8.965,9416.01.201520:04:00
100MCDONALD´S CORPORATION COM856958US580135101791,140,8671USDNYSE7.902,3416.01.201520:04:01
100MUENCHENER RUECKVERSICHERUNGS-GESELLSCHAFT AG843002DE0008430026171,1EURXetra17.110,0016.01.201517:35:26
300PFIZER INC852009US717081103532,570,8671USDNYSE8.471,9916.01.201520:03:48
100PROCTER & GAMBLE CO852062US742718109190,780,8671USDNYSE7.871,4516.01.201520:04:01
100SIEMENS AG723610DE000723610195,47EURXetra9.547,0016.01.201517:35:25
100VOLKSWAGEN AG766400DE0007664005187,6EURXetra18.760,0016.01.201517:35:02
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,294
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:24pm Jan 16, 2015 2:24pm
Wow 18% is impressive! Regarding the ECB QE, as it's now being treated almost as a certainty, the QE may be nearly fully priced in, so maybe there will be a short spike (like the inverse of what happened on Thursday) when announced and then a fall to low 10,000's?
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #4,295
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:45pm Jan 16, 2015 2:45pm
Quoting jcb94
Wow 18% is impressive! Regarding the ECB QE, as it's now being treated almost as a certainty, the QE may be nearly fully priced in, so maybe there will be a short spike (like the inverse of what happened on Thursday) when announced and then a fall to low 10,000's?
thanks. as an ex-banker i should at least know which stocks are worth a buy

buy the rumor, sell the facts? possible, but likely? something i think about is the following:
what if ecb is not only announcing qe = 500 billion (what will meet there goal to increase ecb balance sheet to 1 trillion?) i mean, qe but without limit? that will be "whatever it takes" + " belive me, it will be enough". also an increase of negative interest rates is possible (like snb did - not the same figure but let´s say -0,25%?)

http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/f...trates.en.html

don´t forget draghi is an ex-goldman - he definitely understands what markets want him to do, and he knows this is his last shot. i think it will be the bazooka.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,296
  • Jan 16, 2015 2:56pm Jan 16, 2015 2:56pm
strange levels: fdax rallying above 10.300, now cooling down a bit.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,297
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:10pm Jan 16, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} thanks. as an ex-banker i should at least know which stocks are worth a buy buy the rumor, sell the facts? possible, but likely? something i think about is the following: what if ecb is not only announcing qe = 500 billion (what will meet there goal to increase ecb balance sheet to 1 trillion?) i mean, qe but without limit? that will be "whatever it takes" + " belive me, it will be enough". also an increase of negative interest rates is possible (like snb did - not the same figure but let´s say -0,25%?) http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/f...trates.en.html...
Thanks for your reply! Maybe I'll have to wait for the week after for a drop when Greek election results come out.
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #4,298
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:13pm Jan 16, 2015 3:13pm
Quoting jcb94
{quote} Thanks for your reply! Maybe I'll have to wait for the week after for a drop when Greek election results come out.
you´re welcome.

nice we@all
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #4,299
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:14pm Jan 16, 2015 3:14pm
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  • #4,300
  • Jan 16, 2015 3:22pm Jan 16, 2015 3:22pm
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