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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #41
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:40am Jan 13, 2015 3:40am
hey vvfish. what i did today was just look at the last 30 seconds on the CCM indicator and sold in that direction instead of using the last 10 minutes or go and it gave me the correct direction to buy/sell in.
  • #42
  • Jan 13, 2015 4:04am Jan 13, 2015 4:04am
Quoting mblake8
hey vvfish. what i did today was just look at the last 30 seconds on the CCM indicator and sold in that direction instead of using the last 10 minutes or go and it gave me the correct direction to buy/sell in.
You can not only write but also to show their screenshots.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #43
  • Jan 13, 2015 4:12am Jan 13, 2015 4:12am
Wednesday
15:30
14.01.15
The core US retail sales
(US Core Retail Sales), USA, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #44
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:38pm Jan 13, 2015 3:38pm
Thoughts on "smart traders"

The main event of the day (Tuesday, 13/02/2015) becomes publication of British inflation, which fell more than expected, and reached the lowest level since 2000: the fact of 0.5% against the forecast of 0.7% (annualized). Guess what is not: lower oil prices and the "war of supermarkets" in the holiday period. The main gainer for the sterling will now be Mark Carney, which should shed light on the situation and clarify "what to do and how to live." Watching his speech on Wednesday, at 17:15 Moscow time, possible volatility at this time.

Coeure (France, ECB): Elections in Greece will not affect the monetary policy of the ECB. Decision on QE may be taken by 22 January at the meeting of the ECB, but it is not mandatory program.

Tomorrow there may be some information on the upcoming decision of the European QE: the ECB should prepare a legal opinion on the legality of the scheme implementation. In the report all the "OK" is the solution for the ECB, in the report "for revision», QE may be postponed purely for technical reasons.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #45
  • Jan 13, 2015 3:43pm Jan 13, 2015 3:43pm
The core US retail sales
US Core Retail Sales
The dollar continues to worry about weak inflation (Friday we will see the updated data) and weak wage growth that is not quite "scientific" in relation to such a strong growth of labor market indicators. Economists differently explain this fact, because it should be the opposite: with the growth of the labor market, inflation and sn must catch up. Of these, the most acceptable in our opinion, two factors: the fall in oil prices and the "why raise wages when the contenders for a place enough." 5.6% for unemployment in the US serious, but a weak argument, if you look at the structure.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #46
  • Jan 14, 2015 7:38am Jan 14, 2015 7:38am
USDSJPY
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_13.png Size: 8 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_10.png Size: 154 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #47
  • Jan 14, 2015 7:51am Jan 14, 2015 7:51am
hmmmm..my fil was at better price this time........
  • #48
  • Jan 14, 2015 7:53am Jan 14, 2015 7:53am
Thursday
25% p2:30
15/01/15
AU Number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD

Average response when triggered flip-flops 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.robability trades

Thursday
17:30
15/01/15
US natural gas reserves GOOD
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average response when triggered flip-flops 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #49
  • Jan 14, 2015 7:59am Jan 14, 2015 7:59am
AU Number of employed
AU Employment Change


In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to varying degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics reactions
AU Number of employed
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast
Employment Change
Unemployment Rate
Reaction trading pairs in paragraphs
Comments
11/06/2014 0% -19.98 20/20 Spikes 20 n.
09/10/2014 0 -45.2% 18-32 Body 18, 32 drop shadow to back. Resource change the formula as warned prior to bidding.
09/11/2014 106 -0.2% 46 Height couples
08.07.2014 13.5 0.4 30 Fall couple
10/07/2014 3.9 0.1 Sheep Sheep 25 up to 25
06/12/2014 -14.8 0 8-31 sharp reaction to roll back to 31 10 n. The initial pulse
05/08/2014 5.4 -0.1 26 Height couples
10/04/2014 Height 15.6 -0.3 44 pairs
03/13/2014 0 32.3 55 Height couple
02/13/2014 -18.7 0.1 60 Fall couple
01/16/2014 -32.6 0 60 Fall couples delay
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #50
  • Jan 14, 2015 6:39pm Jan 14, 2015 6:39pm
AUDUSD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_23.png Size: 5 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_22.png Size: 150 KB
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #51
  • Jan 14, 2015 11:38pm Jan 14, 2015 11:38pm
Nice One VVFish​
  • #52
  • Jan 15, 2015 12:07am Jan 15, 2015 12:07am
Quoting Byron88
Nice One VVFish​
Thank U.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #53
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:10am Jan 15, 2015 11:10am
Friday
15:30
01/16/15
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #54
  • Jan 15, 2015 1:07pm Jan 15, 2015 1:07pm
Hey, show us, USDCHF
  • #55
  • Jan 15, 2015 7:00pm Jan 15, 2015 7:00pm
Hey all,

Nihilist's CSM or CC4 you are preferring to trade news? CSM is not working properly on me even though I downloaded everything required mentioned on the related thread. CC4 is working perfectly, and as I see on screenshots uploaded by vvFish's, CC4 is being used. But the creator of CC4 has mentioned that those two indicators are not the same and one should use Nihilist's. What do you guys think/use?
  • #56
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:26pm Jan 15, 2015 10:26pm
What is the News Hub Lockup like?


Shortly after dawn on most weekday mornings, a strange ritual takes place in Washington D.C. Two dozen select men and women leave their homes, grab their newspapers, and rush off to spend part of the day under virtual house arrest. Yes, house arrest—as in incarceration. Precisely where they go to be confined can vary day to day. It could be in a dilapidated government building one morning and a high-tech office complex the next. Regardless of the location, what occurs in all these places is always the same. They enter a strict, prison-like setting where contact with the outside world is cut off.
One Friday morning, this same group climbs a long set of steps to the side entrance of a sleek, white-stone building on 3rd Avenue and C Street in the heart of the nation's capital. Armed guards greet them at the entrance for a security check; from this point on, everyone has to wear their ID tags at all times. The visitors proceed across a lobby, down a quiet narrow corridor, eventually stopping in front of a locked, heavy wooden door. A government official awaits them and quickly opens the door to reveal a drab, windowless, L-shaped room 40 feet long and some 10 feet across. It is empty except for two dozen plain-looking orange and chrome chairs, each resting alongside a row of narrow cubicle-like desks. A digital clock that rests high on the wall breaks time down to seconds. It is 7:30:15 a.m., and already 12 people have found their way into the "lock-up" room. More are expected within the next 15 minutes. All who enter dutifully sign their names on a special sheet.
Despite its austere appearance, there is an atmosphere of calm in the room, at least for now. Some visitors talk excitedly about the previous night's televised basketball game. Others are either chatting on cell phones or checking their Palm Pilots for messages. A few keep to themselves by catching up on the morning paper or downing a quick muffin and coffee. Everyone in the room, however, makes a point of always knowing the time, with some people eyeing the digital clock so frequently that their actions may be mistaken for nervous tics.
As the time approaches 8 a.m., there is a palpable change in mood. Gone now are the sounds of light conversation; these sounds are replaced by the din of laptops firing up. Everyone appears to be focused on what is about to occur.
At 7:55 a.m. sharp, a government official walks in and picks up a wall phone to call the Naval Observatory, home to the Vice President of the United States. It is also the location of the ultra-accurate atomic clock. She listens intently for a few seconds and then abruptly hangs up without saying a word. The individual then inserts a key into a lock on the wall, which allows her to adjust the digital clock to the precise second. With the correct time now set, the official then turns around to make a terse announcement.
"Please turn off all cell phones and Palm Pilots, and disconnect laptops from your telephone lines."
To make sure everyone complies, the official walks across the room and eyes each desk. Meanwhile a second federal employee arrives carrying copies of a highly sensitive government report. Each one is placed facedown on an empty desk.
Then it begins.
At precisely 8 a.m., the door to the lock-up room clicks shut. From this point on, all those inside are out of touch with the rest of the world. No one is permitted to leave. No calls or messages can come into or out of the room. Security is tight. A guard stands by outside, ready to use force if anyone attempts to sneak out.
What secret is the government protecting? Is the CIA about to begin a classified briefing on intelligence activities? Are Congressional investigators huddling to hear the newest terrorist threat? No. All these precautions are taken for one reason. The government is about to release numbers. Statistics. More precisely, economic statistics. The visitors in the room are business reporters representing news organizations from around the world, and this morning they're working out of the Department of Labor's secure press room.
Why such tight secrecy? Because in the next few seconds, these journalists will be the first to lay their eyes on one of the country's most sensitive economic measures—the monthly report on employment conditions. It can shed fresh light on whether the U.S. economy is growing or facing a slowdown. Did the number of Americans who have jobs rise or fall in the latest month? Have hourly wages gone up or did they drop? Did people work more hours or less? These statistics might not seem particularly earthshaking to most Americans, but they can and do whip the global stock, bond, and currency markets into a frenzy. For individual investors and professional money managers, the information in the jobs report can mean the difference between having a winning or losing portfolio. It also explains the need for the security measures. Individuals getting such hot figures ahead of time can make a quick bundle of money because they know something of which no one else in the financial markets is yet aware. To prevent such abuses, the government guards these and dozens of other key economic indicators as tightly as a military base. It also implements a carefully controlled procedure to disseminate sensitive economic news.
8:00:00 The instant the door is shut, reporters dive in to grab the latest release on employment conditions, which up to now had been facedown. They have just 30 minutes to read, digest, and write their stories on how the job market changed during the previous month. Most of the journalists arrived that morning with the expectation that the employment release would carry dismal economic news, with the number of people without jobs rising—a troubling sign the economy was weakening. At least that was the opinion of most professional forecasters whom these reporters consulted just days earlier.
But on this particular morning, the employment report stuns everyone. Those in the lock-up room read with amazement that companies actually hired workers in far greater numbers than anyone expected. Moreover, other figures inside the report appear to corroborate signs the economy is doing quite well. Wages are rising and factory overtime is increasing. Far from slowing, the latest evidence indicates the economy is actually picking up steam. It is astounding news of which the rest of the world is yet unaware.
As the digital clock continues its silent countdown, reporters working on the story suddenly face some urgent questions. What's really happening in the economy? Why were so many "experts" caught off guard? What does this mean for future inflation and interest rates? How might the stock, bond, and currency markets react to the news?
Though the latest jobs report was unexpected, these journalists are not completely unprepared. As is their routine, a day or two earlier they showered private economists with questions that covered a variety of hypothetical employment scenarios. What does it mean if the job market worsens? What if it actually improves? Now the reporters are frantically searching through their interview notes to help them file their stories.
8:28:00 A Labor Department worker in the lock-up room notifies television reporters that they can now leave under escort to prepare for their live 8:30 broadcast of the jobs report.
For the remaining journalists in the room, there is just a brief warning: "Two minutes left!" By now, most have pieced together their initial version of the story—the headline, the opening sentences, key numbers, and the implications for the economy. All that's left are some last-minute fact checking and a word tweak here and there.
8:29:00 "One minute. You can open your telephone lines—BUT DO NOT TRANSMIT!"
The level of tension is not just high in the lock-up room, for at that moment, money managers and traders in New York, Chicago, Tokyo, Hong Kong, London, Paris, and Frankfurt are riveted to their computer screens, anxiously waiting for the release of the crucial jobs report. It's a stomach-churning time for them because investment decisions that involve hundreds of billions of dollars will be made the instant the latest employment news flashes across their monitors. Why such worldwide interest in how jobs fare in America? For one, many foreign investors own U.S. stocks and bonds, and their values can rise or fall based on what the job report says. Second, the international economy is now so tightly interconnected that a weak or strong jobs report in the U.S. can directly impact business activity in other countries. If joblessness in America climbs, consumers will likely purchase fewer cars from Germany, wine from France, and clothing from Indonesia. In contrast, a jump in employment means households will have more income to spend on imports, and this can stimulate foreign economies.
8:29:30 "Thirty seconds!" The fingers of reporters hover over their computer's Send button, ready to dispatch the latest employment news to the world. On-air reporters are also prepared to deliver the news live.
8:29:50 An official counts the final seconds out loud.
"Ten . . . nine . . . eight . . . seven . . . six . . . five . . . four . . . three . . . two . . . one!"
8:30:00 "Transmit!" Reporters simultaneously hit the Send buttons on their keyboards. In seconds, electronic news carriers, including Bloomberg, AP, Reuters, and Japan's Kyodo News, release their stories. Television and cable news stations, such as CNBC, Bloomberg TV, CNN, and MSNBC broadcast the report live. A second or two later, computer screens around the globe carry the first surprising words: "Jobs unexpectedly rose the previous month, with the unemployment rate falling instead of rising!"
For journalists in the lock-up room, the stress-filled half-hour grind is over, and they are now free to leave. But the work has just begun for those in the investment community.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #57
  • Jan 15, 2015 10:44pm Jan 15, 2015 10:44pm
Quoting petermuller
Hey all, Nihilist's CSM or CC4 you are preferring to trade news? CSM is not working properly on me even though I downloaded everything required mentioned on the related thread. CC4 is working perfectly, and as I see on screenshots uploaded by vvFish's, CC4 is being used. But the creator of CC4 has mentioned that those two indicators are not the same and one should use Nihilist's. What do you guys think/use?
All the indicators that I use or used in the past trade on news work 50/50.
You can not sell 100% based only on performance.
We must look anolitikov readings (just look, they are wrong 40%).
The breaking of the price levels of the opening of markets, Asia, London, USA.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #58
  • Jan 15, 2015 11:36pm Jan 15, 2015 11:36pm
Quoting cabscesar
Hey, show us, USDCHF
FXStreet - EUR / USD quickly recovered to multi-year lows on the news that the SNB unbind at CHF 1.20 against the euro.
EUR / USD is trading at at 1.1742 - 0.41% from the opening price, immediately after the news has fallen off to new multi-year lows 1.1580. In a highly volatile European session, the euro weakened against the dollar, having lost the level of 1.16 after the SNB decided to unbind the franc to the single currency, also lowered its key interest rate.
Franc strengthened by 30% against the euro, instantly responding to the move of the Central Bank.
Technical levels in EUR / USD
Near term resistance for the pair held at 1.1805 (5-DMA) and 1.1832 (10-DMA), and support - at 1.16 and 1.1580.
** Newsroom FXStreet, FXStreet **
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #59
  • Jan 16, 2015 4:20am Jan 16, 2015 4:20am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} All the indicators that I use or used in the past trade on news work 50/50. You can not sell 100% based only on performance. We must look anolitikov readings (just look, they are wrong 40%). The breaking of the price levels of the opening of markets, Asia, London, USA.
Thanks for the reply vvFish! I'll post a screenshot of my trade on today's CPI news, and we can talk about cruical points I have missed.
  • #60
  • Jan 16, 2015 7:42am Jan 16, 2015 7:42am
Friday
15:30
01/16/15
NO TRADES
1 new comments
The core US consumer price index
(US Core CPI), the United States, USDJPY
Average response when triggered flip-flops 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
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