USD/JPY Discussion

We are in some wave 4 on 30 min. time frame. If 118.28 can hold we will climb above 119 soon to test 119.20... but since 4H cloud is still flat edged I don't expect much action today (and even tomorrow)

Happy Trades

Am i correct that we need a climb to 119,20 areas to visit 117,20 ?

i'm short. tp set to 117.92

perched at support.

S.L????

i'm already out. sl was 118.70 for the record.

Everyone has something to say when it comes to the interview on Fed's staff.
What Lockhart said last night was certainly 'bulletproof' correct in terms of when would the rate hike comes or should come.

In my original post here
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...02#post7985402

Judge by all the comments, the major concern from Fed is the inflation. 2015 is a unique time for Fed because CPI readings is clouded with the dropping oil price.

So now what is the relationship between oil price and inflation?
As you might already seen in the past couple of days, the dropping oil price is pulling down the inflation number across the countries. Last week Euro zone was in 'deflation', and last night UK showed a lowest CPI number in 15 years, and both EUR and UK stated their low CPIs were caused by the dropping oil price.

US CPI is due in 3 days.

Sure... dropping oil price is good for the growth and consumer confident, but it makes the inflation calculation must trickier. For example, today's EUR CPI.

As for the policy makers, with the oil price mess in hand and CPI data is no longer accurate, rate hike (USD), QE (EUR) or current QE (GBP) decisions need to be thoroughly planned and cannot be rushed. When rate hike or QE is applied to a low CPI economy, you will most likely to have the deflation. That's economics 101.

Now, As for USD Fed, (per last FOMC) one rate hike would very likely lead to a series of rate hike. Having a rate hike based on a misjudged CPI is a big no-no.

So what other tools can fed use / monitor, just to be certain economy is growing and people are spending??
The answer is Wage.

Wage indicate not only businesses are profitable enough to pay more for its massive hiring in the past couple months, but also a tool to help inflation or as know as "More pay, more money and more spend."

At the beginning of the last FOMC week, my hope for a better wage was high; However, first Wage number in 2015 was very disappointing, UJ was kicked back from its 120.00 zone and never strengthened again.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post7972844

We certainly don't know how long the oil price would interfering the CPI. Maybe 1 week, maybe 6 months, maybe 2 years; Therefore I believe Fed urges to see wage improvement, so they would know they are getting a good footing for rate hikes even with a CPI that is interfered by the oil price.

Hi! As now, there is plenty bear risk in UJ ask price is hanging at its lower end at 118.00

As for the US risk, judge by the current pace, wage, oil price and inflation would be the major key factors when it comes to when rate hike would come. All other US data is solid.

As for Japan risk, well, I am still waiting to to see how $800 billion fiscal year budge plan works out which was submitted two days ago. And yeah, and most importantly, how the Abeconomic would unfold in 2015.

Additional Emerging Geopolitical Risk (just to name a few)

1. Russia and Ukraine leader meets again on 1/15
2. ECB meeting on 1/22
3. Greece election and possible Gexit on 1/25

so does everybody notice the 100 pip gain during late tokyo session and through london session, and then the 100 pip drop in the US session? along with stock indexes (and everything else lol) this has been happening for few days, what a pattern.. scalpers paradise! ..

on the h4 chart looks very bearish to me (i havent said that once since august) ... lower lows and lower highs* on the swing..

pip it up boys...

Until there is clear direction from the Fed and/or the BoJ of what they want to do with their own currency, this pair is horribly range-bound.

http://harmonicelliottwave.blogspot.com/

Ian Copsey's Weekly Outlook for UJ.

Cheers, U2

Long yen from here is tempting for tp 120 area.

ı agree wıth you because ı see dıvergence on macd and rsı ın chart 1h

ugh, I hate this pair right now. Is the copper price issue the reason why this thing is in a free fall right?

AUD/JPY is in free falling, so USD/JPY do the same.

Was this enough correction for 120 levels?

Waiting for one last dip (approx. 116.45) and then I will go long.. if no dips I will go long after price climbs back above 117, otherwise will do nothing..

Happy Trades

Looking the forest (long view) and not the tree...

TF...weekly

There is a lot of space in the south avenue...it is just the begining IMO