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  • #949,661
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:49am Jan 13, 2015 7:49am
im curious why many people said that whatever ECB gonna do is priced in at this EU level atm 1.1768. are ECB's council calling 1.17 as their lowest? dont you think euro can depreciate even until reach 1 to 1 to USD?
  • #949,662
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:53am Jan 13, 2015 7:53am
Still #Short #EURUSD and #long #US #Dollar stay with the trend
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #949,663
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:54am Jan 13, 2015 7:54am
Quoting Citiboy
Lower oil is good for the US over the long term, but if you consider the amount/scale of the investment that has been poured into texas/north dakota the last 5 years... to have that all suddenly crash is gonna be a net negative for GDP in the short run. the rig count fall last week was pretty astounding. the amount of jobs in question here are relatively small, but include things like the rookie welder a few years outta chool making 140k that the WSJ profiled last week. The shale revolution produced tons of VERY high paying jobs. Payrolls growth...
Oil employment compared to the whole energy sector is below 5% as far as I remember; you pointed out wage risk to the downside in oil sector, what about those who in fact benefit from lover oil?
latest crude inventory data showed INCREASE in inventory, which is quite, to say the least, uncommon knowing the time of the year - this only adds further weight to the argument that world is overstocked with oil;
also Russia posting largest oil production increase since soviet times also tells something, what a game is this
  • #949,664
  • Jan 13, 2015 7:59am Jan 13, 2015 7:59am
Quoting tomas.v
It seems that market doesn't have mood to go up, i bet on 20-30 pips move down from 1.18.
Trade closed with about 30 pips in profit
  • #949,665
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:06am Jan 13, 2015 8:06am
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} Oil employment compared to the whole energy sector is below 5% as far as I remember; you pointed out wage risk to the downside in oil sector, what about those who in fact benefit from lover oil? latest crude inventory data showed INCREASE in inventory, which is quite, to say the least, uncommon knowing the time of the year - this only adds further weight to the argument that world is overstocked with oil; also Russia posting largest oil production increase since soviet times also tells something, what a game is this


Consumers benefit from lower oil but what do they do with that money? Spend some, Save some, pay down some debt... and those effects take time to set in is my point. So not all that money goes toward consumption.


Oil rigs rushing to close down has immediate affect, the highest paid working class men in the country are now suddenly being laid off left and right.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #949,666
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:07am Jan 13, 2015 8:07am
Quoting tomas.v
{quote} Trade closed with about 30 pips in profit
You think we hit the daily low?

Next sell could be .180 or .182 if it doesn't go lower, but momentum is really strong downwards as last days built up a lot of steam...
Warning: Greenhorn Don't get greedy and stick to your strategy
  • #949,667
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:08am Jan 13, 2015 8:08am
Additionally on EUR side tomorrow is a massive risk on ECJ.


If their opinion doesnt approve QE the ECB will probably have to resort to national central banks buying their own government's bonds and being responsible for that risk...


Meaning Weidmann could just say "Nein", the Buba wont participate. Effectively rendering the program pointless.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #949,668
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:09am Jan 13, 2015 8:09am
Wonderfully
Quoting tomas.v
{quote} Trade closed with about 30 pips in profit
  • #949,669
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:10am Jan 13, 2015 8:10am
Quoting DaChief
{quote} You think we hit the daily low? Next sell could be .180 or .182 if it doesn't go lower, but momentum is really strong downwards as last days built up a lot of steam...
it can move down a few pips more, but i think that some fundamental news should come up to break the min at 1.1760.
  • #949,670
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:16am Jan 13, 2015 8:16am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
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  • #949,671
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:16am Jan 13, 2015 8:16am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} Consumers benefit from lower oil but what do they do with that money? Spend some, Save some, pay down some debt... and those effects take time to set in is my point. So not all that money goes toward consumption. Oil rigs rushing to close down has immediate affect, the highest paid working class men in the country are now suddenly being laid off left and right.
That article which Tom D Trader and Infinitus posted - thanks for that btw - is really worth reading. Explains nicely and concisely
  • #949,672
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:25am Jan 13, 2015 8:25am
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  • #949,673
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:43am Jan 13, 2015 8:43am
This ugly !!!!!
Back from the dead * ding fries are done *
  • #949,674
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:46am Jan 13, 2015 8:46am
tripled my longs at 1.1759. SL 1.1747
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #949,675
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:46am Jan 13, 2015 8:46am
Most likely .1650 before 1.800 and that too tomorrow ...... Not even viagra can raise it
Everything you want lies on the other side of fear.
  • #949,676
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:48am Jan 13, 2015 8:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Tom, my 2 cents: You maybe overlooking the other factors in the equation in this move, and right now, they are probably the more important ones. Most of the strength of the move is coming from the DOLLAR SIDE more than the ECB expectations. King dollar is cleaning the table across the board. This is nothing to do with ECB Commodities have collapsed. Dollar is carrying strength especially via oil short term price destruction. That is nothing to do with ECB. US is printing the most spectaculars macroeconomic numbers in nearly 20 years. We...
unemployment a tick above Natural Employment !!! (which means full employment in normal terms) ???

yeah right

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...015/01/LFP.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...ent%20rate.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...110_eunemp.jpg

do some research, dude
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Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #949,677
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:48am Jan 13, 2015 8:48am
1.1740 shall we ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #949,678
  • Edited 9:01am Jan 13, 2015 8:50am | Edited 9:01am
So, ghost in the morning played well, now there is a Quasimodo on larger scale. Poor guy has a bit dislocated shoulder. Dotted green which makes the base is mid of dropzone. Waiting for h4 break to confirm.

I am looking forward, that one of these days, I am going to be showing these pictures to my children saying: "See kids? This is how your daddy got rich."

Btw, I think I aint beeing coward for taking partial here.

T
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #949,679
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:50am Jan 13, 2015 8:50am
Quoting ryder950
This ugly !!!!!
Have you asked your account manager wtf he's smoking?
  • #949,680
  • Jan 13, 2015 8:51am Jan 13, 2015 8:51am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
So, ghost in the morning played well, now there is a Quasimodo on larger scale. Poor guy has a bit dislocated shoulder. Dotted green which makes the base is mid of dropzone. Waiting for h4 break to confirm. I am looking forward, that one of these days, I am going to be showing these pictures to my children saying: "See kids? This is how your daddy got rich." T {image}


I like your chart, this is all a probabilities game. Price will either play out the way you described or bounce from here
Twitter: @TrendersGame
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