EURUSD | Page 47482 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Similar Threads

MT4: how to change "EURUSD" to "#EURUSD"? 3 replies

Re: EurUsd short term 15 replies

did oanda just drop its spread for eurusd to 1 pip? 11 replies

EA for multiple lot limit order for EURUSD 0 replies

NFP nice bump up on EURUSD 2 replies

Attachments: EURUSD
Exit Attachments

EURUSD

  • #949,621
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:24am Jan 13, 2015 5:24am
Quoting slayeruk
{quote} By the way that is a nice fake image, notice how next to ichmoku it says GOC that means General Overview Chart, which is what it said before he or someone edited the image in photoshop or paint and added ichimoku, that is just SAD. {image}
Mega LOL !!!! If you never has used a bloomberg terminal, please shut up !!!!!
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #949,622
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:24am Jan 13, 2015 5:24am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Do you still hold them?
Now now hatch, no poking at people that cant defend themselves.
  • #949,623
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:26am Jan 13, 2015 5:26am
Quoting janpec1000
Let the force be with your shorts, and let the neckline break.
.

I have this little thought. Maybe it is nonscence, as usuall and thought implies reverse behaviour of market as we know it, called pump and dump. I kinda thought, they r gonna pump the market up pre ECB conference, so ECB then makes final push with some kind of easing. But since we are diving deeper and deeper, it may well happen EUR is gonna weaken so much there wont be that much of an easing necesarry. So in the end ECB will just deliver betaversion and start a correction.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #949,624
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:34am Jan 13, 2015 5:34am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} . I have this little thought. Maybe it is nonscence, as usuall and thought implies reverse behaviour of market as we know it, called pump and dump. I kinda thought, they r gonna pump the market up pre ECB conference, so ECB then makes final push with some kind of easing. But since we are diving deeper and deeper, it may well happen EUR is gonna weaken so much there wont be that much of an easing necesarry. So in the end ECB will just deliver betaversion and start a correction. T
Yeh i was hoping the same, correction up on market and then when QE comes dump down. But looking more logically it would be that MMs place ahead of QE and every draghi hint and keep shorting, thus helping to drive price lower, not waiting for retracmenet. Easing defenetly is tied to EU exchange rate aswell, but main reason for easing are still bond purchases. So no matter where EU goes, bonds have to be bought. But market reaction will be much lower than i first expected simply becouse so much drop has been priced in. Well noone knows how much was really prices in but it would be generally good guess.
  • #949,625
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:36am Jan 13, 2015 5:36am
Tomorrow, the ECoJ is due to give it's ruling regarding the ECB's Stability Mechanism.
If they accept that it is legal and they back the ECB, does that mean that confidence in the Euro will increase and cause the Euro to rise or that the confidence is in the actions that Draghi is taking, causing the Euro to further weaken as is his (Draghi's) intention?
  • #949,626
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:41am Jan 13, 2015 5:41am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yeh i was hoping the same, correction up on market and then when QE comes dump down. But looking more logically it would be that MMs place ahead of QE and every draghi hint and keep shorting, thus helping to drive price lower, not waiting for retracmenet. Easing defenetly is tied to EU exchange rate aswell, but main reason for easing are still bond purchases. So no matter where EU goes, bonds have to be bought. But market reaction will be much lower than i first expected simply becouse so much drop has been priced in. Well noone knows...
Yes, it's classic buy the rumour sell the news/vice versa. In theory that would be mean profit taking when the ECB actually announced QE but the devil will be in the details. I wonder if the Germans are keen on buying bonds from the Euro countries who need depressed rates the most?
  • #949,627
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:42am Jan 13, 2015 5:42am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} And 5 day ADR is around 85 and today range is about 70 points already
London range up until now is slightly over 60 pips, and so above this year's ~59 p average. Personally, not a good place for short.
  • #949,628
  • Edited 5:57am Jan 13, 2015 5:44am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting janpec1000
Easing defenetly is tied to EU exchange rate aswell, but main reason for easing are still bond purchases. So no matter where EU goes, bonds have to be bought. But market reaction will be much lower than i first expected simply becouse so much drop has been priced in.
I agree much of ECB action has been already priced in. But I gotta disagree with those bonds here. I ve already heard this once, not sure if it was from you or someone else. The´r trying to look like root of problem is in bond market. You can also see yields in there. But EU already made several schemes (LTRO, SMP) to boost these markets through banking sector and failed. The underlying problem is stagnating - contracting business. Private enterprises are overloaded with debt and these yield spikes in bonds will not affect them, as they got interest rate almost at zero and still dont borrow and consume. And because they act like so, bond yields are going up. Not the reverse. So, what ECB needs, is not to boost banking sector again, but to get cash directly to business, which is actually pretty hard task (i mean to skip banking sector and somehow give cash to enterprises). This is much easier done by fiscal policy, which is failing overall in Europe. Coward politicians leave everything upon ECB, but she doesnt have propper instruments to directly affect business.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #949,629
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:45am Jan 13, 2015 5:45am
Current hourly close below 90/91 and i assume pair will test 1.1750/60 next hour or so.

If above 1.1802 then likely retrace up to 20/30.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #949,630
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:53am Jan 13, 2015 5:53am
Quoting Paulenok
{quote} London range up until now is slightly over 60 pips, and so above this year's ~59 p average. Personally, not a good place for short.
This year's highest in terms of volatility was 89p on german CPI
Thus, with no significant data coming from EZ, I intend to believe it is only up to NY to test 1.17680 today

trade safe
  • #949,631
  • Jan 13, 2015 5:57am Jan 13, 2015 5:57am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I agree much of ECB action has been already priced in. But I gotta disagree with those bonds here. I ve already heard this once, not sure if it was from you or someone else. The´r trying to look like root of problem is in bond market. You can also see yields in there. But EU already made several schemes (LTRO, SMP) to boost these markets through banking sector and failed. The underlying problem is stagnating - contracting business. Private enterprises are overloaded with debt and these little spike yields in bonds will not affect them, as...
If what you said is true, then why would be ECB considering mostly buying bonds only as part of QE, not putting cash into economy? You could put same argument for FED QE and their economy, yet nearly none of FED QE cash went elsewhere but financial markets.
  • #949,632
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:07am Jan 13, 2015 6:07am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} If what you said is true, then why would be ECB considering mostly buying bonds only as part of QE, not putting cash into economy? You could put same argument for FED QE and their economy, yet nearly none of FED QE cash went elsewhere but financial markets.
I am using same argument on FED QE. Whole US is one big mumbo jumbo. 17Tril! different discussion.

Because this is the easiest way for ECB: ECB buys bonds - State gets cash - State does fiscal expansion - Business gets cash.
Edit: And this is the way of state: Fiscal expansion - business gets cash. And state loss ofc, which will be monetized later. First fiscal, then monetary.

Looks nice, doesnt it? The problem is right in the first part of the chain. ECB is hoping here to be "stabilizing speculant", meaning she buys a bit of bonds and the rest will just join the ride. They wont. Maybe they will just a bit, for as long as ECB is gonna be pumping cash in. The result of part one is state gets some cash out of those lowered yields and will be able to funcion a bit longer. But there´s no "new" cash. ECB is gonna buy bonds from banks on secondary market so + for state is yields down, but actually it is the bank who receives cash for its crappy bond. So, teh result: Most gets stuck in banking sector, nice chunk is going to go to state and businesss? The very very last as usuall, I am afraid.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #949,633
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:15am Jan 13, 2015 6:15am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I am using same argument on FED QE. Whole US is one big mumbo jumbo. 17Tril! different discussion. Because this is the easiest way for ECB: ECB buys bonds - State gets cash - State does fiscal expansion - Business gets cash. Edit: And this is the way of state: Fiscal expansion - business gets cash. And state loss ofc, which will be monetized later. First fiscal, then monetary. Looks nice, doesnt it? The problem is right in the first part of the chain. ECB is hoping here to be "stabilizing speculant", meaning she buys a bit of bonds and the...
Well said , agree, buying bonds trough QE is financing states, though the problem is that financing state doesnt mean money really goes into bussiness, or if it does, it doesnt mean big portion of it does.
  • #949,634
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:16am Jan 13, 2015 6:16am
Quoting Z3iz3i
Current hourly close below 90/91 and i assume pair will test 1.1750/60 next hour or so. If above 1.1802 then likely retrace up to 20/30.
Mixed close but looks like test towards 1.1810/15 is about to happen then should be sold down by default.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #949,635
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:16am Jan 13, 2015 6:16am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} . I have this little thought. Maybe it is nonscence, as usuall and thought implies reverse behaviour of market as we know it, called pump and dump. I kinda thought, they r gonna pump the market up pre ECB conference, so ECB then makes final push with some kind of easing. But since we are diving deeper and deeper, it may well happen EUR is gonna weaken so much there wont be that much of an easing necesarry. So in the end ECB will just deliver betaversion and start a correction. T
Tom, my 2 cents:

You maybe overlooking the other factors in the equation in this move, and right now, they are probably the more important ones.

  1. Most of the strength of the move is coming from the DOLLAR SIDE more than the ECB expectations. King dollar is cleaning the table across the board. This is nothing to do with ECB
  2. Commodities have collapsed. Dollar is carrying strength especially via oil short term price destruction. That is nothing to do with ECB.
  3. US is printing the most spectaculars macroeconomic numbers in nearly 20 years. We have a 5% GDP !!! mark and unemployment a tick above Natural Employment !!! (which means full employment in normal terms) plus all sectors are printing major gains. That is massive dollar strength and nothing to do with ECB.
  4. FED is on the finishing line for hikes. Sure there are some small issues still to solve but 90% of the factors are aligned for a hike. In currencies you always PLAY first !!!! interest rates expectations (above any other FA factor !!!!) before the actual policy and that is nothing to do with ECB.

Yes, sure ECB and QE is the extra cherry on top for the move but that is quite a complex policy in terms of QE (its not going to be a clean "print money" policy) and the expectations are very difficult to evaluate in terms of policy, timing and impact. Therefore, my reading is that the QE ECB will be only play in straight line. Meaning WHEN and ON the exact news happens.

In simple words, when you have such a fundamental, clean and strong play via the dollar, the uncertainty of ECB QE will only play as a side kick when it happens.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #949,636
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:19am Jan 13, 2015 6:19am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: three lines.jpg Size: 99 KB

New line is yesterday low.
Dont fuck with the lines.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #949,637
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:21am Jan 13, 2015 6:21am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I agree much of ECB action has been already priced in. But I gotta disagree with those bonds here. I ve already heard this once, not sure if it was from you or someone else. The´r trying to look like root of problem is in bond market. You can also see yields in there. But EU already made several schemes (LTRO, SMP) to boost these markets through banking sector and failed. The underlying problem is stagnating - contracting business. Private enterprises are overloaded with debt and these yield spikes in bonds will not affect them, as they...
LTRO - so banks borrow funds from ECB at below 1%, and before introducing negative deposit rate, what they did with those loaned funds was reinvest to sovereign debt and put money to ECB deposit for less than 1%. That is worrying, why banks did not and are not instead putting the money to risky assets, that are firms, companies - the vehicle of our economy?
Also how do you provide liquidity by pushing financial institutions away and so directly to businesses? it is fair to say that there is very little growth in EU and so banks are reluctant to lend as they are either lacking liquidity or became so risk averse that ECB has nowhere else to go but relieve banks off their debts
  • #949,638
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:22am Jan 13, 2015 6:22am
Quoting sisse
Tom, my 2 cents:
Thanks for input mate. I agree, am overall not short EUR, but long USD. I gotta admit 70% of my portfolio of currencies short is made by EUR, but that is because I had no time to load other pairs - especially UJ is giving me headache. As you well know I ve been quite some time off markets.
Btw, wow natural unemployment, didnt even notice that.
Thx again,

T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #949,639
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:28am Jan 13, 2015 6:28am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Thanks for input mate. I agree, am overall not short EUR, but long USD. I gotta admit 70% of my portfolio of currencies short is made by EUR, but that is because I had no time to load other pairs - especially UJ is giving me headache. As you well know I ve been quite some time off markets. Btw, wow natural unemployment, didnt even notice that. Thx again, T
Well in a line my view: Dollar is SUPER bullish, Euro is very bearish. Yen is bearish. I personally don't think is the right time (short term wise meaning daily/weekly) to load anything with the main trends at these levels...

GL.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #949,640
  • Jan 13, 2015 6:29am Jan 13, 2015 6:29am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Good "morning", so I have overslept as my bell broke, but during night covered (very cowardly) 1/3rd of my shorts to cover yesterdays loss from Yen. So am fine, but not loaded as much as I would like to. Now PA is in mid of my numbers and actually seems to be following some stupid channel, which I refuse to draw. GL, T Edit: This could as well be interpreted as H&S. Edit: And preparing to enter Slimit:1,1812 SL:1,1851 {image}
Just seeing this- and haven't looked at my charts today as I have class soon (I'm 27 and working on my masters)

But that looks like a bear wedge at the very right 3 candles of your chart there. Rumor has it that's a pretty powerful formation..."one you can make a living on."
460 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
patientpan